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Obi, Kwankwaso Will Move To The NDC As The 2027 Chessboard Takes Shape

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*By Emeka Monye*

As the race for the 2027 presidential election gathers momentum, Nigeria’s political landscape is already shifting like a chessboard before the first move.

Major political bigwigs are jostling for party tickets, testing alliances, and calculating the odds of securing the ultimate prize: Aso Rock. Permutations have begun in earnest, with analysts and party insiders reading between the lines of every handshake and every press statement.

At the center of these calculations are some of the most recognizable names in Nigerian politics: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra Governor Peter Obi, former Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi, and former Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso.

Each of these men carries political weight, regional influence, and a base that believes he represents the best chance to dislodge the incumbent, President Bola Tinubu. Tinubu himself is widely regarded by political observers as a master strategist, a man who understands the mechanics of power better than most.

Beating him will not be easy. It will require not just popularity, but structure, resources, and most importantly, unity among opposition forces. Whether that unity will materialize remains the great unknown of 2027.

The most delicate variable in this equation is the willingness of these aspirants to step down for one another under the banner of a single party. Right now, much of the speculation centers on the African Democratic Congress, ADC, which has quietly become a possible platform for an opposition coalition.

But the question hanging over the ADC is simple: who will blink first? And more importantly, who will be willing to sacrifice personal ambition for the greater good of a unified front?

Atiku Abubakar remains a central figure in this debate. The former Vice President has pursued the presidency since 1992, and his ambition has not dimmed with age.

For Atiku, 2027 may represent one last shot at realizing a lifelong dream. But his candidacy faces a structural hurdle: the argument that it is still the turn of the South to produce the president. After eight years of Muhammadu Buhari from the North, many within the political class believe power should remain in the South for another term.

That arrangement does not favor Atiku, and whether he will adhere to it in principle is a matter of political conscience. Based on history, many doubt he will. Atiku’s camp has always played hardball, and stepping down for a southern candidate would require a level of self-restraint he has not shown before.

This is where Peter Obi enters the frame. Obi’s performance in the 2023 election proved that he commands a movement that transcends traditional party lines. His supporters, often called the “Obidients,” see him as the face of a new Nigeria, one less tethered to the old guard. But Obi’s path to the ADC ticket is far from clear.

The party’s structure, insiders say, is already leaning toward Atiku. For Atiku, Obi’s movement represents a useful support base to stay afloat, but not necessarily a platform he is willing to surrender. If Atiku remains a stumbling block, Obi may be forced to look elsewhere.

That “elsewhere” could be the National Democratic Congress, NDC. Unlike the ADC, the NDC is currently free of the kind of internal infighting that has plagued other parties. It has no entrenched godfather dictating its direction, no legacy structure dominated by a single aspirant.

For now, it is clean. But that could change the moment Obi walks in. His arrival would bring with it the same energy and attention he brought to the Labour Party in 2022, when he left the PDP and captured national imagination. That move shocked the political establishment. A move to the NDC in 2027 could do the same.

There are strong pointers that Obi will not secure the ADC ticket. The party’s machinery is gradually being aligned with Atiku’s network, and it is unlikely that Atiku will hand over the reins without a fight.

If Obi stays and loses the primary, he risks being sidelined. If he leaves, the NDC offers a ready-made alternative, a platform where he can once again define the narrative on his own terms. It would be a repeat of 2022, but with higher stakes and greater visibility.Kwankwaso’s role in this unfolding drama cannot be ignored.

The former Kano Governor commands significant influence in the North, and his political base remains loyal. Like Obi, he is also weighing his options. A joint ticket or alliance between Obi and Kwankwaso under the NDC would be a game-changer. It would combine Obi’s southern and youth appeal with Kwankwaso’s northern structure, creating a formidable challenge to both Tinubu and any coalition the ADC manages to build.

The NDC, in that scenario, would transform from an obscure party into a national force overnight.Of course, this is all speculation for now. Politics in Nigeria is fluid, and alliances can shift in weeks, sometimes days.

But the underlying reality is clear: the opposition’s best chance in 2027 lies in unity. Divided, they will hand Tinubu an easy victory. United, they could force a real contest.

The ADC was supposed to be that unifying platform, but with Atiku’s shadow looming large, it may end up replicating the same internal conflicts that weakened the opposition in previous cycles.Obi’s supporters argue that he has already shown he is willing to sacrifice for the greater good by engaging across party lines.

But they also insist that sacrifice must go both ways. If Atiku refuses to step aside, they say, Obi owes no one the duty to play second fiddle. The NDC then becomes not just an option, but a necessity. For Kwankwaso, the calculation is similar.

He has always positioned himself as an alternative to the status quo, and joining forces with Obi under a new banner could finally give him the national reach he has long sought.

The NDC’s advantage is its neutrality. It is not burdened by the baggage of the PDP or the APC. It has no history of failed primaries or bitter court cases. It offers a fresh start, and in Nigerian politics, fresh starts can be powerful.

Voters are tired of recycling the same faces under different party logos. A new platform with new energy could capture that fatigue and turn it into votes.

But fresh starts come with risks. Building a party structure from scratch is expensive and time-consuming. It requires funding, grassroots mobilization, and a clear message.

Obi proved he could do it in 2023 with limited resources. Kwankwaso has the network to complement that effort. Together, they could make the NDC a serious contender.

Alone, each risks splitting the opposition vote and handing victory to Tinubu on a silver platter.This is why the next few months will be crucial. Party primaries, backroom negotiations, and public statements will all serve as indicators of where these aspirants are headed.

Atiku will test his influence within the ADC. Obi will test the patience of his movement. Kwankwaso will test the waters for a broader coalition. And Tinubu, from his vantage point, will watch it all unfold, ready to exploit any cracks.

For now, the signal is clear: I see Obi and Kwankwaso moving toward the NDC. It is not yet a done deal, but the logic is compelling. The ADC may offer a coalition on paper, but in reality, it looks like another battleground for old rivalries.

The NDC offers something different: a clean slate, a chance to rewrite the rules, and an opportunity to build something new.

Whether Obi and Kwankwaso will seize that opportunity remains to be seen. But if they do, 2027 will not just be another election.

It will be a referendum on whether Nigeria’s political future belongs to the old guard or to a new generation willing to break away and chart its own course.

Opinions

Am I A Thief?

Sometimes, we think being a thief is only about taking what is not ours in obvious ways.

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One of our Sudanese brothers once shared a deeply touching story titled “Am I a Thief?”—and honestly, it’s not just a story… it’s a mirror to the soul.

He spoke of two moments that seemed small on the surface, yet carried profound weight.

He had traveled to Ireland for a medical exam. The fee was £309, but without change, he paid £310. It felt insignificant—just £1 extra. He completed his exams and eventually returned to Sudan, probably never thinking about it again.

But then… a letter arrived.

Inside was a check for £1, with a message that pierced deeper than the money itself:

“You made a mistake when paying your exam fees. The fee was £309, but you paid £310. This is your £1… we do not take more than what is rightfully ours.”

Pause for a moment and let that sink in…

The envelope, the stamp, the process—it all costs more than £1. Yet, integrity was not measured by cost, but by principle.

It wasn’t about the money. It was about doing what is right… even when no one is watching, even when it doesn’t “make sense.”

The second moment:

On his daily route between college and home, he would stop by a small grocery shop run by a woman and buy chocolate for 18 pence.

One day, he noticed something different. The same chocolate—same size, same quality—but now there were two prices: 18 pence and 20 pence.

Curious, he asked why.

She calmly explained:
“There were issues in Nigeria, where we get cocoa. Prices have gone up. The new stock is 20 pence, but the old one remains 18.”

He thought logically, like many of us would:
“Then people will only buy the 18 until it finishes, before moving to 20.”

She nodded, “Yes, I know.”

So he suggested what seemed like a “smart” solution:
“Why not mix them together and sell everything at 20? No one will know the difference.”

She leaned closer… lowered her voice… and asked a question that struck like lightning:

“Are you a thief??”

He was stunned. Speechless.

He walked away—but that question followed him… echoed within him… refused to let him go:

“Am I a thief??!!”

Sometimes, we think being a thief is only about taking what is not ours in obvious ways.

But this story challenges something deeper.

It asks:
What do we do with the little things?
The unnoticed moments?

The quiet opportunities to bend the truth… just a little?

Because integrity is not proven in grand gestures.

It is revealed in the smallest decisions—when profit is possible, when shortcuts are easy, when no one would ever know.

And perhaps the real question is not what others call us…but what our conscience whispers when we are alone.

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Democracy Still Struggling 33 Years After June 12, PDP Laments by Comrade Ini Ememobong

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As Nigerians commemorate Democracy Day, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has declared that three decades after the historic June 12, 1993 presidential election, democracy remains under severe threat in the country.

In a strongly worded press statement issued on Thursday, the PDP paid tribute to the freest and fairest election in Nigeria’s history and the sacrifices made by citizens who defended the people’s mandate.

The party recalled the remarkable enthusiasm displayed by Nigerians during the 1993 polls, when citizens transcended ethnic and religious fault lines to vote for national progress.

The statement, signed by Comrade Ini Ememobong, National Publicity Secretary of the PDP Interim National Working Committee, noted that undemocratic forces aborted the popular will, triggering a prolonged resistance that claimed many lives.

“Thirty-three years later, the lessons of June 12 ring out more resoundingly than ever,” the PDP said, urging the Federal Government to uphold democratic principles, guarantee civil rights including the right to peaceful assembly and protest, and protect the rights of the opposition.

The party also reminded the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of its sacred duty to conduct elections with “transparent impartiality and unimpeachable fairness,” describing these as minimum standards rather than mere aspirations.

However, the PDP expressed deep disappointment over what it described as the current administration’s failure to learn from history.

“Reality check, however, provides damning evidence that under this APC-led Federal Government, the lessons of June 12 remain painfully unlearnt,” the statement read. “Today, of all days — a day set aside to honour the blood of democratic martyrs — peaceful protesters were teargassed and assaulted in Abuja.”

The party highlighted the case of activist Omoleye Sowore, who was reportedly injured and hospitalised while demanding the immediate release of schoolchildren and teachers held hostage in different parts of the country.

The PDP accused the Tinubu administration of prioritising “optics over action, propaganda over policy,” and living in “a dangerous utopian self-delusion,” thereby reducing Democracy Day to a mere historic remembrance instead of a celebration of democratic consolidation.

Looking ahead to the 2027 general elections, the opposition party called on all citizens to remain vigilant and unrelenting in their demand for genuine democratic consolidation.

“The sacrifices of the past must not be reduced to ceremonial memory. They must be active warnings that this country must never again travel the path of state-engineered anti-democratic actions,” the PDP warned.

Comrade Ini Ememobong, mnipr is the National Publicity Secretary, Interim National Working Committee of the Peoples Democratic Party.

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Nigeria Cannot Build Flood Resilience While Destroying Its Wetlands

The next 10 to 20 years are likely to bring even more dangerous combinations of intense rainfall, river flooding, urban flooding, and coastal flooding/erosion.

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By DrJoseph Onoja

Every rainy season in Nigeria now arrives with a familiar sense of anxiety. Roads disappear beneath floodwaters, homes are submerged, businesses are disrupted, and lives are displaced.

What was once considered a seasonal inconvenience has become a recurring national emergency.

But Nigeria’s flooding crisis is no longer simply about rain.It is the result of a dangerous collision between climate change, environmental degradation, and weak urban planning.

Climate change is intensifying rainfall patterns across Africa, but human activities like deforestation, wetland destruction, poor drainage systems, and uncontrolled development on floodplains are multiplying the scale of destruction.

The uncomfortable truth is this: flooding in Nigeria is becoming structural.

Climate change may trigger the rainfall, but environmental degradation determines whether rain becomes disaster.

Climate Change Is Intensifying the Risk

Scientific evidence continues to show that extreme rainfall events are becoming more intense across Africa.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to increase as global warming accelerates.

In cities like Lagos, the impacts are already visible. Urban flooding has become more widespread, with both short-duration high-intensity rainfall and prolonged rainfall events increasing flood risks.

However, climate change alone does not explain the scale of devastation we are witnessing.

Ordinarily, heavy rainfall should not automatically become a disaster.

Healthy wetlands, functional drainage systems, protected floodplains, and well-planned urban infrastructure are designed to absorb and manage excess water.

” In Lagos, this issue is particularly critical. Water bodies, lagoons, creeks, and wetlands cover more than 62% of the state’s land area, while another significant portion remains seasonally flood prone.”

But when these natural and engineered systems fail or are deliberately compromised, communities become increasingly vulnerable.Nigeria’s flood challenge is therefore not only a climate issue. It is also a planning and governance issue.

Nigeria Is Destroying Its Natural Flood Defences

One of the most overlooked aspects of flood resilience in Nigeria is the role of nature itself.

Forests, wetlands, mangroves, and floodplains act as natural flood buffers. They absorb excess water, slow runoff, reduce erosion, and minimize flood peaks.

In many ways, they function as invisible infrastructure protecting communities from disaster.

Yet across Nigeria, these ecosystems are being degraded at alarming rates.

Deforestation reduces the soil’s ability to absorb water, increasing surface runoff and erosion. Sediments washed into drainage systems reduce their capacity and worsen urban flooding.

At the same time, wetlands and floodplains are increasingly being sandfilled and converted for construction and urban expansion.

The irony is embedded in the name itself: floodplains exist to absorb floods.

In Lagos, this issue is particularly critical. Water bodies, lagoons, creeks, and wetlands cover more than 62% of the state’s land area, while another significant portion remains seasonally flood prone.

When these ecosystems are filled, degraded, or built over, floodwater has fewer places to disperse safely. Instead, it ends up in homes, roads, and communities.

Wetlands are not vacant land waiting for development; they are natural infrastructure protecting cities from collapse.

The implications are enormous. Sensitive ecological areas such as the Lekki Conservation Centre continue to serve as natural buffers by receiving, retaining, and absorbing water from surrounding environments.

If such ecological buffers are lost to uncontrolled development, entire communities become significantly more exposed to flooding risks with attendant consequences for human health, livelihoods, wellbeing, infrastructure, and property.

Nigeria’s Adaptation Gap Is Growing

Nigeria is not standing completely still. There are signs of progress.

The Lagos Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan identify dozens of adaptation projects and estimates financing needs between US$9 billion and US$16 billion by 2035.

This reflects increasing recognition that climate resilience must become a development priority.

But adaptation efforts are still not keeping pace with the speed of urban growth and climate risk.

Rapid urbanization, inadequate drainage systems, weak urban governance, and insufficient climate-resilient infrastructure continue to increase exposure across many Nigerian cities.

The next 10 to 20 years are likely to bring even more dangerous combinations of intense rainfall, river flooding, urban flooding, and coastal flooding/erosion.

Sea level rise will further worsen risks in low-lying coastal cities, especially Lagos.

Without urgent intervention, the economic, social, and environmental costs will continue to rise.

The cost of protecting ecosystems today is far lower than the cost of rebuilding cities tomorrow.

Nature-Based Solutions Must Become National Policy

Nigeria cannot engineer its way out of this crisis through concrete alone. Flood resilience requires a combination of infrastructure investment and ecological protection.

Nature-based solutions must become central to national and subnational climate adaptation strategies.

This means:

  • • Protecting and restoring forests, wetlands, mangroves, and floodplains

• Strengthening drainage and storm water systems

• Enforcing risk-sensitive urban planning regulations

• Preventing development on ecologically sensitive areas

• Improving solid waste management to prevent blocked drainage systems

• Investing in low-carbon and climate-resilient growth pathways.

These actions are not optional environmental luxuries. They are essential investments in public safety, economic stability, and national resilience.

The future of flood resilience in Nigeria will depend as much on ecological protection as on engineering.

A Defining Choice for Nigeria

Floods are no longer isolated disasters. They are warning signs. They reveal the growing consequences of ignoring environmental limits while cities expand faster than resilience systems can keep pace.

They expose the cost of treating ecosystems as expendable rather than essential.

Nigeria still has a choice. We can continue reacting to flood disasters after they occur, or we can invest in prevention, resilience, and nature-based infrastructure before the next crisis arrives.

Protecting Forests, wetlands, restoring degraded ecosystems, and strengthening climate adaptation systems are not simply environmental priorities.

They are national development imperatives.The future resilience of Nigeria’s cities may well depend on how seriously we take them today.

Dr Joseph Onoja , a conservation scientist, is the Director – General of the Nigerian Conservation Foundation (NCF).

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