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Obi, Kwankwaso Will Move To The NDC As The 2027 Chessboard Takes Shape

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*By Emeka Monye*

As the race for the 2027 presidential election gathers momentum, Nigeria’s political landscape is already shifting like a chessboard before the first move.

Major political bigwigs are jostling for party tickets, testing alliances, and calculating the odds of securing the ultimate prize: Aso Rock. Permutations have begun in earnest, with analysts and party insiders reading between the lines of every handshake and every press statement.

At the center of these calculations are some of the most recognizable names in Nigerian politics: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra Governor Peter Obi, former Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi, and former Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso.

Each of these men carries political weight, regional influence, and a base that believes he represents the best chance to dislodge the incumbent, President Bola Tinubu. Tinubu himself is widely regarded by political observers as a master strategist, a man who understands the mechanics of power better than most.

Beating him will not be easy. It will require not just popularity, but structure, resources, and most importantly, unity among opposition forces. Whether that unity will materialize remains the great unknown of 2027.

The most delicate variable in this equation is the willingness of these aspirants to step down for one another under the banner of a single party. Right now, much of the speculation centers on the African Democratic Congress, ADC, which has quietly become a possible platform for an opposition coalition.

But the question hanging over the ADC is simple: who will blink first? And more importantly, who will be willing to sacrifice personal ambition for the greater good of a unified front?

Atiku Abubakar remains a central figure in this debate. The former Vice President has pursued the presidency since 1992, and his ambition has not dimmed with age.

For Atiku, 2027 may represent one last shot at realizing a lifelong dream. But his candidacy faces a structural hurdle: the argument that it is still the turn of the South to produce the president. After eight years of Muhammadu Buhari from the North, many within the political class believe power should remain in the South for another term.

That arrangement does not favor Atiku, and whether he will adhere to it in principle is a matter of political conscience. Based on history, many doubt he will. Atiku’s camp has always played hardball, and stepping down for a southern candidate would require a level of self-restraint he has not shown before.

This is where Peter Obi enters the frame. Obi’s performance in the 2023 election proved that he commands a movement that transcends traditional party lines. His supporters, often called the “Obidients,” see him as the face of a new Nigeria, one less tethered to the old guard. But Obi’s path to the ADC ticket is far from clear.

The party’s structure, insiders say, is already leaning toward Atiku. For Atiku, Obi’s movement represents a useful support base to stay afloat, but not necessarily a platform he is willing to surrender. If Atiku remains a stumbling block, Obi may be forced to look elsewhere.

That “elsewhere” could be the National Democratic Congress, NDC. Unlike the ADC, the NDC is currently free of the kind of internal infighting that has plagued other parties. It has no entrenched godfather dictating its direction, no legacy structure dominated by a single aspirant.

For now, it is clean. But that could change the moment Obi walks in. His arrival would bring with it the same energy and attention he brought to the Labour Party in 2022, when he left the PDP and captured national imagination. That move shocked the political establishment. A move to the NDC in 2027 could do the same.

There are strong pointers that Obi will not secure the ADC ticket. The party’s machinery is gradually being aligned with Atiku’s network, and it is unlikely that Atiku will hand over the reins without a fight.

If Obi stays and loses the primary, he risks being sidelined. If he leaves, the NDC offers a ready-made alternative, a platform where he can once again define the narrative on his own terms. It would be a repeat of 2022, but with higher stakes and greater visibility.Kwankwaso’s role in this unfolding drama cannot be ignored.

The former Kano Governor commands significant influence in the North, and his political base remains loyal. Like Obi, he is also weighing his options. A joint ticket or alliance between Obi and Kwankwaso under the NDC would be a game-changer. It would combine Obi’s southern and youth appeal with Kwankwaso’s northern structure, creating a formidable challenge to both Tinubu and any coalition the ADC manages to build.

The NDC, in that scenario, would transform from an obscure party into a national force overnight.Of course, this is all speculation for now. Politics in Nigeria is fluid, and alliances can shift in weeks, sometimes days.

But the underlying reality is clear: the opposition’s best chance in 2027 lies in unity. Divided, they will hand Tinubu an easy victory. United, they could force a real contest.

The ADC was supposed to be that unifying platform, but with Atiku’s shadow looming large, it may end up replicating the same internal conflicts that weakened the opposition in previous cycles.Obi’s supporters argue that he has already shown he is willing to sacrifice for the greater good by engaging across party lines.

But they also insist that sacrifice must go both ways. If Atiku refuses to step aside, they say, Obi owes no one the duty to play second fiddle. The NDC then becomes not just an option, but a necessity. For Kwankwaso, the calculation is similar.

He has always positioned himself as an alternative to the status quo, and joining forces with Obi under a new banner could finally give him the national reach he has long sought.

The NDC’s advantage is its neutrality. It is not burdened by the baggage of the PDP or the APC. It has no history of failed primaries or bitter court cases. It offers a fresh start, and in Nigerian politics, fresh starts can be powerful.

Voters are tired of recycling the same faces under different party logos. A new platform with new energy could capture that fatigue and turn it into votes.

But fresh starts come with risks. Building a party structure from scratch is expensive and time-consuming. It requires funding, grassroots mobilization, and a clear message.

Obi proved he could do it in 2023 with limited resources. Kwankwaso has the network to complement that effort. Together, they could make the NDC a serious contender.

Alone, each risks splitting the opposition vote and handing victory to Tinubu on a silver platter.This is why the next few months will be crucial. Party primaries, backroom negotiations, and public statements will all serve as indicators of where these aspirants are headed.

Atiku will test his influence within the ADC. Obi will test the patience of his movement. Kwankwaso will test the waters for a broader coalition. And Tinubu, from his vantage point, will watch it all unfold, ready to exploit any cracks.

For now, the signal is clear: I see Obi and Kwankwaso moving toward the NDC. It is not yet a done deal, but the logic is compelling. The ADC may offer a coalition on paper, but in reality, it looks like another battleground for old rivalries.

The NDC offers something different: a clean slate, a chance to rewrite the rules, and an opportunity to build something new.

Whether Obi and Kwankwaso will seize that opportunity remains to be seen. But if they do, 2027 will not just be another election.

It will be a referendum on whether Nigeria’s political future belongs to the old guard or to a new generation willing to break away and chart its own course.

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The Girl Who Was Almost Married at 10 Is Taking Her Story to the United Nations

On September 4 this week…Sierra Leone’s First Lady is expected to stand before the United Nations General Assembly with a proposal aimed at protecting millions of girls from the same fate.

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Sierra Leone’s First Lady, Fatima Maada Bio

By Ahmed Sahid Nasralla (De Monk)

AT about 10 years old, Fatima Maada Bio already knew who she was expected to marry.

She was a child, but an adult decision had been made about the direction her life should take. Somehow, she escaped that future.

On September 4 this week, many, many years after that little girl could have been sent into a marriage she did not choose, Sierra Leone’s First Lady is expected to stand before the United Nations General Assembly with a proposal aimed at protecting millions of girls from the same fate.

She is expected to present a draft resolution seeking the proclamation of November 27 as an ‘International Day for the Elimination of Child, Early and Forced Marriage’. The proposal is new.

The date is not yet an official UN observance. It is a call for the international community to give the issue a permanent place on its calendar and, with it, sustained attention and action.

There is something deeply personal about that journey.

According to briefing material from the Office of the First Lady of Sierra Leone, she knew at around the age of 10 who she was expected to marry and narrowly escaped child marriage.

That experience did not become a footnote in her life. It became part of the reason she has spent years speaking about the rights and protection of women and girls.

The First Lady’s public advocacy has taken her from communities in Sierra Leone to some of the world’s most important international forums.

Her flagship ‘Hands Off Our Girls’ campaign has focused on ending rape, early marriage and violence against women and girls, while her work has also extended into girls’ education, women’s health and other issues affecting vulnerable communities.

However, her return to the United Nations this time carries a particularly personal weight.

She is taking a subject that could have defined her own childhood and asking the international community to give it greater and lasting attention.

It is not her first attempt to put child protection on the UN agenda.

In 2022, she spearheaded the effort that led the General Assembly to proclaim November 18 as the ‘World Day for the Prevention of and Healing from Child Sexual Exploitation, Abuse and Violence’.

“She is expected to present a draft resolution seeking the proclamation of November 27 as an ‘International Day for the Elimination of Child, Early and Forced Marriage’. The proposal is new.”

UNAIDS describes her as having championed the adoption of that first-ever World Day.

The United Nations has also continued to strengthen its attention to child, early and forced marriage.

In December 2024, the General Assembly adopted a resolution addressing the issue.

Sierra Leone has been moving on the national front too. The country enacted legislation in 2024 prohibiting marriage involving anyone under 18.

So when Fatima Maada Bio walks into the General Assembly this week, she will be carrying a story that has travelled through several stages: from the experience of a young girl, to a national campaign, to legislation, and now to another attempt to secure a place for the issue on the global calendar.

The numbers behind the issue are sobering.

The United Nations and other international organisations have consistently described child marriage as a major barrier to girls’ education, health, economic opportunity and personal autonomy.

Behind every statistic, though, there is a girl whose childhood is being shortened.

There is a school she may leave, friends she may lose, choices she may never get to make, and a future that may be decided for her before she is old enough to understand what that future means. That is why the personal history of the woman making this proposal is important.

Fatima Maada Bio knows what it means for adults to imagine a future for a girl before she has had the opportunity to imagine one for herself. She also knows what it means to get away.

That gives her advocacy a particular human quality. The issue is something she encountered as a child and has carried into her public life as an adult.

The fight has also taken her beyond child marriage. Last week, OncoDaily named her among its 100 Influential Women in Oncology for 2026, recognising her work in women’s health and cancer prevention.

The publication highlighted her partnership with the Merck Foundation, which has supported specialist medical training in Sierra Leone, including scholarships that contributed to the development of the country’s cancer-care workforce.

It also noted her advocacy for breast cancer awareness and early detection and her participation in discussions around the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative.

It is another part of a public role that has increasingly stretched beyond the traditional image of a First Lady.

Then there is child protection, and women’s health.

There is girls’ education, and the wider question of how countries protect women and children who often have the least power over decisions affecting their lives.

The international recognition in oncology is significant for another reason.

It shows that her advocacy is being noticed in fields far removed from the political spotlight in which First Ladies are usually seen.

Nonetheless, the child-marriage campaign remains different. It brings her public work unusually close to her own childhood.

Sierra Leone, as a country, has its own reason to pay attention to what happens in New York this week.

The country has already taken the important step of outlawing marriage involving children under 18.

The First Lady has been one of the most visible voices pushing the protection of girls into the national conversation.

Her campaign has also received international recognition, including her appointment by UNAIDS as a champion for the empowerment and engagement of adolescent girls and young women.

Now she is taking the conversation back to the United Nations. The proposed international day would not, by itself, end child marriage.

A date on the UN calendar cannot keep a girl in school, or protect her from an abusive household or change the circumstances that make families vulnerable to marrying off their daughters.

Those things require laws, enforcement, education, economic opportunity, social protection and changes in attitudes that can take generations.But international days can keep issues alive.

They create opportunities for governments, schools, civil society organisations, communities and international agencies to return to a problem every year, measure progress and remind themselves of what remains unfinished. That is the opportunity behind November 27.

This may also be the reason why the story of the little girl who nearly became a child bride is worth remembering when Fatima Maada Bio enters the General Assembly. She is no longer that girl.

She got education and became a journalist, an actress, an advocate, a mother, and Sierra Leone’s First Lady. She also became the President of the Organisation of African First Ladies for Development.

She is now asking the world to give millions of girls something she was fortunate enough to have: the chance to grow up and become all of that and even more before someone else decides what their lives should become.

That is what, on behalf of Sierra Leone and the world, she is carrying into the United Nations on September 4.

Not a speech or a title. She is carrying a powerful story the General Assembly should listen and act on.

Ahmed Sahid Nasralla is the Ex-Officio and Immediate Past President of the Sierra Leone Association of Journalists (SLAJ), and the Chairman of the Federation of African Journalists (FAJ) Working Group on Climate Change.

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Is Dangote Refinery Playing the Giraffe by Leaving Domestic Oil Supply to Marketers?

Is Nigeria gradually returning to a situation where imported petrol is competing with locally refined PMS, even as Dangote Refinery has the capacity to supply a substantial portion of domestic demand?

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[File Photo] Aliko Dangote

By Ochefa


WHEN I was younger, bedtime storytelling was one of my favourite pastimes in my family. After the evening meal, my mother would usually gather us together for this special treat.
Of all the fables she told us, one that has remained indelibly etched in my memory to this day was Why the Giraffe Eats from Tall Trees.
The story portrayed the giraffe as a humble and considerate animal. Because of its long neck, it could reach the leaves and branches of tall trees, leaving the grasses and shorter vegetation for sheep and goats whose shorter necks could not reach the higher branches.


So, what is the point?

Could the Dangote Petroleum Refinery be playing the giraffe in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market—leaving marketers to supply the domestic market with imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), while it increasingly exports its refined products to other countries?
Recent developments in the petroleum industry appear to lend some credence to this question.
The management of Dangote Petroleum Refinery recently attributed its increased export volumes to rising imports of petrol into Nigeria.

The refinery said the decision to focus more on exports should not be interpreted as a lack of commitment to the Nigerian market.
“Rather, exports are a prudent operational response to the realities of a market where imported products continue to compete with locally refined fuel despite the availability of sufficient domestic refining capacity,” the refinery said.


Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) appear to support the changing supply pattern.
According to the regulator’s recent report, Dangote Refinery’s supply of PMS to the domestic market fell by 21 per cent to 25.8 million litres per day in July, from 32.5 million litres per day in June.


The monthly factsheet showed that the refinery produced about 25.9 million litres of PMS per day in July and exported 3.4 million litres per day.

The July domestic supply figure was reportedly the lowest recorded by the refinery in 2026.
At the same time, petrol imports rose by nine per cent to 19.7 million litres per day, from 18.1 million litres per day in June.
These figures raise an important question: Is Nigeria gradually returning to a situation where imported petrol is competing with locally refined PMS, even as Dangote Refinery has the capacity to supply a substantial portion of domestic demand?
Dangote Refinery has expressed concern about the continued issuance of import licences for petroleum products. It maintains that it has demonstrated sufficient capacity to meet, and even exceed, Nigeria’s domestic PMS requirements.


The refinery said that although it remains committed to Nigeria’s energy security and uninterrupted fuel availability, the continued inflow of imported PMS has created uncertainty around domestic demand forecasting and inventory management.


According to the refinery, it has consistently maintained sufficient inventories and reserved product volumes to guarantee steady supplies to the Nigerian market since commencing operations.


That commitment, it said, has involved substantial investment in storage facilities, logistics and working capital to protect consumers from supply disruptions and market volatility.


Why Dangote Says It Is Exporting More


The refinery’s major concern appears to be the lack of transparency over the volume of imported petrol expected to enter the country.
Without reliable information on future import volumes, it argues, it becomes increasingly difficult to plan production and manage inventories efficiently.


Maintaining large stocks of petrol that may not be absorbed by the domestic market also comes with significant storage and financing costs.


“As a responsible energy provider, we have always endeavoured to keep adequate reserves to satisfy local demand at all times,” the refinery said.
However, where significant quantities of imported PMS continue to enter the market through licences issued by the regulator, and there is limited visibility on future import volumes, the refinery says it becomes commercially unsustainable to hold excess inventory indefinitely.


Its argument is straightforward: when locally refined products cannot be absorbed by the domestic market because of competing imports, the surplus must be moved elsewhere.
Hence, the increased exports.


The refinery insists that this does not mean Nigeria’s domestic market cannot be supplied. Rather, it says the exports are a response to market uncertainty created by competing imports.


It also warned that if supply shortages eventually occur because of market distortions caused by excessive importation and the resulting difficulty in forecasting domestic demand, such shortages should not automatically be blamed on Dangote Refinery.


The company maintains that it remains ready and capable of meeting and exceeding Nigeria’s petroleum product requirements.


Dangote’s Transparency Concern Is Genuine—Expert


Oil and gas expert Dr Ayodele Oni believes Dangote Refinery’s concern over transparency is legitimate.
According to him, Section 317 of the Petroleum Industry Act contemplates the issuance of import licences where there is a demonstrable shortfall.
But, he argued, a shortfall determination that is not published cannot easily be scrutinised.
“NMDPRA should publish, ex ante, the aggregate volume of import authorisations it has approved for each quarter and the shortfall assessment behind them. That is a modest reform and it costs the regulator nothing,” he said.
However, Oni cautioned against simply shutting out imports.
He pointed to the performance of the country’s government-owned refineries, noting that NNPC’s three refineries produced nothing in July.


“A single plant supplying nearly the entire national market, with imports switched off, is a structural risk, not an achievement,” he argued.


He added that the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act exists to address such situations, stressing that regulatory policy should not be based on the assumption that a single refinery will never experience an unplanned outage.

According to him, the solution is structural: a transparent shortfall methodology, published quarterly import quotas, and the development of genuine second and third domestic refineries.
“Everything else is noise,” he said.

” The government cannot simultaneously encourage domestic refining, allow substantial imports without clearly communicating the basis for them, and expect refiners to maintain costly inventories indefinitely.”


Imports or Domestic Refining?


Another industry analyst and former Managing Director of 11PLC, formerly Mobil, Otunba Adetunji Oyebanji, believes Dangote Refinery is within its rights to export.
He argued that the government must retain the flexibility to import petroleum products whenever there is a potential shortfall.
“This is an internationally traded product,” he said, pointing out that even countries with substantial refining capacity, including the United States, continue to import petroleum products.
His argument is that economics, rather than sentiment, ultimately determines where petroleum products are bought and sold.
“We heard that Dangote exported to America. Don’t they have refineries?” he asked rhetorically.
For him, pricing remains a major determinant.
And therein lies the real issue.
The giraffe in my mother’s story was not merely tall; it was considerate. It reached the leaves that other animals could not reach and left the lower vegetation for them.
But Nigeria’s petroleum market is not a fable. Dangote Refinery is a commercial enterprise, not a charitable institution. It must make economically rational decisions, just as marketers and importers do.


The bigger question, therefore, is not whether Dangote Refinery should export.
It is whether Nigeria’s petroleum regulatory framework is creating the right conditions for locally refined products to compete fairly, while ensuring that consumers are protected and the country is not exposed to the risks of relying too heavily on a single refinery.


If Dangote has the capacity to meet domestic demand but finds it more commercially sensible to export because imported PMS is competing with its products at home, then the problem may be bigger than Dangote.
It may point to a regulatory and market-structure problem that requires urgent attention.
The government cannot simultaneously encourage domestic refining, allow substantial imports without clearly communicating the basis for them, and expect refiners to maintain costly inventories indefinitely.


There must be transparency.
There must also be competition.
And, most importantly, Nigeria needs more functioning refineries capable of supplying the domestic market.


Perhaps, then, the lesson from the giraffe is not that Dangote should leave the “grass” to the marketers.
It is that the rules of the forest must be clear enough for every animal to know where it stands.

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BREAKING: Lagos Govt Declares Today, Thursday Work-Free to Mark 2026 Ìṣẹ̀ṣe Day

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The Lagos State Government has declared Thursday, August 20, 2026, a work-free day for public servants, political appointees and others to mark this year’s Ìṣẹ̀ṣe Day celebration.

The announcement was made by the Special Adviser to the Governor on Tourism, Arts and Culture, Idris Aregbe, in a statement on Wednesday. He described Ìṣẹ̀ṣe as “not a relic” but “a living expression of our traditions and a celebration of Yoruba spirituality as an important part of Nigeria’s cultural and religious landscape.”

Authorities expect the event to draw more than three million residents and traditional worshippers in what is billed as one of the largest gatherings of its kind. Celebrations will feature prayers, rituals, processions, drumming and cultural displays dedicated to the Òrìṣà, coordinated by the Association of African Traditional Religion Nigeria and Overseas.

Ìṣẹ̀ṣe Day has been observed as a work-free day in Lagos since 2023, following a request by the Lagos State Council of Obas and Chiefs. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has maintained the practice annually as part of the administration’s commitment to indigenous values and religious inclusiveness under the THEMES+ Agenda.

Normal government activities are expected to resume on Friday, August 21. Residents have been urged to celebrate peacefully and respectfully.

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