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Agbakoba Writes Oyetola on ‘Unlocking Nigeria’s Maritime Potential to Generate ₦70 Trillion Annually’

In the West and Central Africa region, 80% of containers are destined for Nigeria, but less than 20% actually arrive because of the decayed infrastructure—whether at Lagos, Port Harcourt, or other ports.

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IN SUMMARY

The N70 trillion will come from :

1. Port Infrastructure Development (N14 trillion annually)

2. Inland Waterways Development (N10-12 trillion annually).

3. Cabotage Enforcement (N8 trillion annually).

4. Oil Rig Taxation (N6 trillion annually—approximately 17% of the National Budget).

5. Oil and Gas Maritime Services (N16 trillion in annual losses)

6. Maritime Security and Blue Economy (N8-10 trillion annually).

7. Emerging Maritime Technologies (N5-6 trillion annually).

Dr. Olisa Agbakoba SAN Senior Partner, Olisa Agbakoba Legal (OAL), recently wrote to the minister of finance / coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun , on  Positioning Nigeria Towards A N1 Quadrillion Economy.

This time, he writes to the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola, on the subject: “Unlocking Nigeria’s Maritime Potential to Generate ₦70 Trillion Annually.

INTRODUCTION

The maritime sector is potentially Nigeria’s largest economic sector outside oil and gas.

The Nigerian Institution of Marine Engineers and Naval Architects (NIMENA) projects that the maritime industry could contribute approximately $44 billion (N70 trillion) annually to Nigeria’s GDP with improved governance and regulation.

However, we are currently losing enormous revenue due to inadequate legal frameworks, poor infrastructure, and insufficient private sector participation.

The adoption of the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) by the Federal Executive Council is most welcome.

The policy document contains comprehensive recommendations for legal and regulatory reforms.

What is now needed is decisive implementation to unleash the sector’s tremendous potential.

It is within this implementation context that I write to present specific, revenue-generating interventions that can accelerate the policy’s objectives and deliver quantifiable outcomes within one year.

• Cargo ships

THE OPPORTUNITY: N70 TRILLION IN ANNUAL RECOVERABLE REVENUE

OAL study reveals that Nigeria’s maritime sector presents extraordinary opportunities currently unrealised due to legal and regulatory gaps.

The transformative element of this proposal is that the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) already contains most of the required legal and institutional reforms needed to capture these opportunities.

I shall now proceed to set them out as follows:

1. Port Infrastructure Development (N14 trillion annually)

Ports are critical to the development of any economy.

If people produce goods but cannot move them, the economy cannot get ahead.

In the West and Central Africa region, 80% of containers are destined for Nigeria, but less than 20% actually arrive because of the decayed infrastructure—whether at Lagos, Port Harcourt, or other ports.

A recent report by Dynanmar, a Dutch consultancy firm, shows that Nigeria loses approximately N20 billion daily at the ports due to poor infrastructure and inefficiencies, with most revenue flowing to neighbouring ports, particularly Cotonou, Tema, and Lomé.Nigeria should be a maritime hub like Morocco, which is building one of the biggest sea ports to trade effectively with Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.

But we cannot be a maritime hub if our ports are in a bad state.

Yet the Lekki Deep Sea Port demonstrates the transformative potential—it is already attracting over $20 billion in investment and provides a replicable model for port modernization across Nigeria. Imagine what would come if all other ports were operating optimally.

The Apapa City Port requires massive overhaul. Strategic ports remain grossly underdeveloped or abandoned.

The Onitsha River Port lies idle despite its potential to transform inland cargo movement and decongest Lagos ports. New ports at Azumiri and Oraji are underdeveloped.

Port development projects in Akwa Ibom and Ogun states are commendable, but much more needs to be done.

To unlock this opportunity requires:

(a) enacting the Ports and Inland Waterways Development Act to modernise port operations, establish legal backing for Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in port development, reform governance of the Nigerian Ports Authority to improve efficiency and competitiveness, regulate inland waterway transport ensuring safe navigation and infrastructure investment, and provide incentives for private sector investment in modern port infrastructure and smart port technology;

(b) amending the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) Act (1999) to enhance private sector participation through robust PPP frameworks; and(c) amending the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) Act (1997) to mandate systematic dredging programmes, establish inland port development frameworks, and enable private sector participation in waterway management.

Achieving cargo dwell time of 48 hours or less and port throughput growth of 15% yearly or more are critical performance indicators.

Revenue streams include port tariffs and cargo handling fees from vessels using Nigerian ports, berthing and anchorage fees, container storage fees, transit trade fees for landlocked countries using Nigerian ports, and special economic zones for shipbuilding, repairs, and logistics.

2. Inland Waterways Development (N10-12 trillion annually).

The bad state of the ports is directly connected to our inland waterways. When the British were here, we had 42 inland waterways connected to roads and railways for cargo movement.

Nigeria must build a multimodal superhighway linking roads, trains, and inland waterways to maximize our trade potential.Nigeria’s inland waterways represent transformational economic corridors comparable to the Nile in Egypt.

Dredging the River Benue to Lokoja and the River Niger from Baro in Niger State to the Atlantic Ocean to a minimum draught of ten feet will enable transportation from Baro to Onitsha by speed boat in 90 minutes instead of 9 hours, and ferrying tonnes of yam and other farm produce from Makurdi to Onitsha on self-propelled barges in three hours.

Over 25,000 foreign vessels illegally trade in Nigeria’s coastal waters, representing both a national security challenge and massive economic loss.

The Nile River, at 26 to 36 feet deep, supports busy traffic of cargo and cruise ships, with cruises costing up to $500 per person for four days.

A fully operational Niger-Benue river system would dramatically reduce transportation costs, decongest road infrastructure, and create substantial tourism revenues comparable to Egypt’s Nile-based economic corridor.

This requires:(a) amendments to the NIWA Act to mandate systematic dredging programmes and inland port development;(b) enacting a Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) Act to regulate ocean space usage and avoid conflicts between industries (fishing, shipping, tourism, offshore energy), establishing a Marine Spatial Planning Authority to allocate maritime zones, setting rules for zoning fishing areas, shipping lanes, conservation zones, and renewable energy projects, and providing mechanisms for stakeholder consultation and dispute resolution;(c) enacting a Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture Act to strengthen regulation of fisheries and aquaculture ensuring sustainability and food security, introducing a national fisheries management system to enforce fishing quotas and conservation rules, creating a licensing system for commercial and artisanal fisheries, banning destructive fishing practices and regulating foreign fishing vessels, and strengthening penalties for Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing; and

(d) revitalisation of abandoned inland ports including the Onitsha River Port to restore the integrated multimodal transport system essential for economic competitiveness.

Revenue streams include toll charges on inland waterway transport managed by NIWA, revenue from ferry services for passenger and cargo transportation, foreign vessel licensing fees for companies fishing in Nigeria’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), commercial fishing permits for industrial-scale fishing companies, artisanal fishing licenses for small-scale fishers, and value-added income from fish processing industries.

3. Cabotage Enforcement (N8 trillion annually)

Over 25,000 foreign vessels illegally trade in Nigeria’s coastal waters, representing both a national security challenge and massive economic loss.

The National Policy specifically recommends reviewing the Coastal and Inland Shipping (Cabotage) Act 2003, strengthening institutions for effective enforcement, encouraging inter-agency synergy for implementation, and streamlining access to the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF).

To capture this opportunity requires:(a) amending the Cabotage Act (2003) to establish strict enforcement mechanisms and compliance requirements, with penalties including vessel seizure for violations, thereby ensuring Nigerian-crewed vessels constitute 50% or more of coastal trade and preventing the ongoing haemorrhaging of revenue to foreign operators;

(b) strengthening inter-agency collaboration between NIMASA, NPA, NIWA, Nigerian Navy, Marine Police, and security agencies for better governance and coordinated enforcement; and

(c) establishing a National Blue Economy Commission as a centralized body to coordinate activities across ministries of transport, environment, fisheries, petroleum, and trade, and develop marine economic zones to attract investments.

Revenue streams include registration fees from Nigerian-flagged vessels under NIMASA, fees from foreign vessels operating in Nigerian waters under the Cabotage Act, seafarers’ certification and training fees from maritime workers and companies, and increased domestic shipping revenues from Nigerian vessels.

4. Oil Rig Taxation (N6 trillion annually—approximately 17% of the National Budget)

Oil rigs have formed a cartel for tax avoidance. OAL is representing NIMASA in a tax avoidance case brought by oil rig companies.

NIMASA has confirmed that tax is currently not collected from oil rigs.Capturing this revenue requires:(a) amending the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) Act (2007) to expand its mandate beyond shipping, marine labor, and environmental protection to include responsibilities for marine conservation and blue economy oversight, establish a robust taxation framework for oil rigs operating in Nigerian waters, increase penalties for maritime pollution, illegal vessel operations, and labor violations, and strengthen NIMASA’s role in coastal tourism and renewable energy initiatives;(b) enacting a Marine Pollution Control and Climate Adaptation Act to strengthen environmental protection measures addressing pollution, oil spills, and climate risks, establish stricter penalties for marine pollution including oil spills, plastic waste, and ship-based pollution, require all offshore oil and gas companies to develop spill response and cleanup plans, support coastal communities with climate adaptation strategies including shoreline protection and disaster response, and mandate green shipping initiatives including reduced carbon emissions for vessels;(c) amending the Petroleum Industry Act (2021) to strengthen regulations on offshore oil and gas drilling to reduce environmental risks and introduce mandatory decommissioning funds for oil companies to clean up decommissioned offshore platforms;(d) creating a Marine Pollution Task Force to monitor and enforce environmental regulations across ports, coastal industries, and offshore platforms; and(e) amending the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Act (1978) to update and increase Nigeria’s control over deep-sea mining and marine biodiversity conservation, and introduce provisions for sustainable offshore energy projects including offshore wind farms.

Revenue streams include royalties from offshore oil drilling and gas extraction, corporate taxes on oil companies operating in deep-sea oil fields, fees for pipeline installations and seabed resource extraction rights, tax revenue from private-sector investments in fish farms and marine aquaculture, revenue from private investment in offshore wind farms and tidal energy projects, and carbon credit sales under global climate agreements for using clean marine energy.

5. Oil and Gas Maritime Services (N16 trillion in annual losses)

This presents enormous losses across four critical value chains that exclude Nigerians.

Over $1 billion worth of legal work annually is lost to foreign firms. Nigerian shipping companies are not engaged to lift our crude oil products.

Funds accruable to Nigeria from crude oil production are domiciled in foreign banks and sometimes held for months before remittance to the Central Bank of Nigeria.

No Nigerian marine insurance company is involved in insurance underwriting for the over 1,000 oil rigs in Nigerian waters.

This stands in stark contrast to Saudi Arabia’s successful IKTVA program, which mandates and enforces local content, ensuring value retention within its economy.

To recapture these losses requires:(a) amending the Merchant Shipping Act (2007) to regulate the shipping industry, ship registration, and safety, and reviewing the legal framework for carriage of cargo from Free on Board (FOB) to Cost Insurance and Freight (CIF) to support growth of a national fleet;(b) strengthening enforcement of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (Local Content Act) 2010 across all excluded value chains including legal services, shipping, banking, and insurance;(c) establishing the Maritime Development Bank to provide critical maritime assets and financing for indigenous capacity development; and(d) developing public-private partnerships (PPPs) in port expansion, inland waterway development, shipbuilding, and maritime infrastructure through tax incentives for investments in sustainable fishing, tourism, and renewable energy.Revenue streams include recaptured legal services fees, shipping revenues from Nigerian vessels lifting crude oil, timely remittance of oil revenues to CBN, and marine insurance underwriting fees.

6. Maritime Security and Blue Economy (N8-10 trillion annually)

This revenue potential comes through increased port traffic, reduced insurance premiums, and enhanced foreign direct investment in maritime infrastructure.

The Deep Blue Project, inaugurated in June 2021, has proven effective—the International Maritime Bureau acknowledged a 30 per cent drop in piracy cases in 2021 alone, demonstrating measurable return on security investments.

However, only a coast guard can adequately protect and assure maritime safety and security.

A fully secured maritime environment would attract international shipping lines currently avoiding Nigerian waters, dramatically increasing port revenues and related economic activities.

Achieving insurance premium reduction of 40% or more through sustained security would further unlock this sector’s potential.

This requires:(a) strengthening implementation of the Suppression of Piracy and Other Maritime Offences (SPOMO) Act of 2019 as specifically recommended in the National Policy;(b) enacting a Coast Guard Establishment Act to create a dedicated institution for maritime safety and security;(c) enacting a Maritime Security and Piracy Suppression Act to strengthen legal measures to combat piracy, sea robbery, and other maritime crimes, provide additional legal backing for Nigerian Navy and Marine Police to enforce security in Nigerian waters, establish specialized maritime courts to handle piracy, smuggling, and maritime security violations, and strengthen public-private partnerships for maritime surveillance including deploying technology for monitoring Nigerian waters;

(d) strengthening the Nigerian Navy and Marine Police through better funding and technology for coastal and offshore surveillance; and

(e) improving collaboration with ECOWAS and Gulf of Guinea partners for regional maritime security.Nigeria should also align with international and regional frameworks including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), International Maritime Organization (IMO) Conventions (MARPOL for pollution control, SOLAS for safety, STCW for seafarers), Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Paris Agreement on Climate Change, FAO Port State Measures Agreement for combating illegal fishing, African Union Blue Economy Strategy, African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), Gulf of Guinea Maritime Security Strategy, and ECOWAS Integrated Maritime Strategy (EIMS).

Revenue streams include fees from shipping companies for naval escort services in piracy-prone areas, revenue from joint maritime security operations with foreign shipping companies, fines imposed on vessels violating maritime laws (illegal fishing, pollution, piracy), confiscation and auctioning of vessels involved in illegal activities, tax revenue from hotels, resorts, and tourism operators along Nigeria’s coastline, fees from coastal ecotourism activities including whale watching, diving, and marine parks, entry fees for protected marine areas and islands, berthing fees from cruise ships docking at Nigerian ports, licenses for private yacht operations and water sports businesses, and luxury tourism taxes on high-end marine tourism experiences.

7. Emerging Maritime Technologies (N5-6 trillion annually)

This revenue potential comes through early adoption advantages and positioning Nigeria as a regional hub for digital maritime services.

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will implement mandatory requirements for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) by January 1, 2028.

Early implementation before this deadline would give Nigeria competitive advantage in West African maritime services, attract technology investments, and capture digital trade documentation fees currently lost to foreign platforms.Nigeria must:

(a) enact the Legal Framework for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) to position Nigeria for emerging maritime technologies before IMO’s mandatory 2028 requirements;(b) enact the Electronic Bill of Lading (eB/L) Framework to digitalise maritime trade documentation and capture fees currently lost to foreign platforms;

(c) enact a Blue Economy Act to establish a comprehensive legal framework for Nigeria’s blue economy covering marine governance, resource management, and economic development, with provisions establishing the National Blue Economy Commission to coordinate activities across ministries and agencies, providing clear rules on marine resource allocation, licensing, and conservation, defining legal responsibilities for the private sector, local communities, and government agencies, and outlining penalties for environmental violations, illegal fishing, and marine pollution;(d) amend the Sea Fisheries Act (1992) to increase fines and penalties for IUU fishing, strengthen monitoring and surveillance of Nigeria’s fishing waters using satellite tracking and observer programs, and require fishing vessels to adopt sustainable practices and report catch data transparently; and

(e) support capacity building and research institutions—support universities and research institutes in marine sciences and innovation to develop indigenous expertise.Revenue streams include revenue from pharmaceutical companies using marine resources for drug development, licensing fees for marine research and bioprospecting companies exploring Nigeria’s waters, tax income from seaweed farming for export as food, cosmetics, and biofuel raw material, government partnerships with investors in marine-based biofuels, government revenue from companies extracting rare earth minerals, manganese, and cobalt from Nigeria’s EEZ, taxes on companies exploring for marine-based minerals for battery production, income from controlled sand dredging for construction and land reclamation, and licensing fees for coral harvesting for medicinal and scientific purposes.

CONCLUSION

Nigeria’s maritime sector presents a N70 trillion annual opportunity (as projected by NIMENA) currently unrealised due to legal and regulatory gaps.

The transformative element of this proposal is that the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) already contains most of the required legal and institutional reforms.

The roadmap exists; what is needed is decisive implementation to translate policy into law and law into measurable economic outcomes.

This policy paper outlines a comprehensive legislative framework comprising nine new laws to be enacted (Ports and Inland Waterways Development Act, Marine Spatial Planning Act, Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture Act, Marine Pollution Control and Climate Adaptation Act, Coast Guard Establishment Act, Maritime Security and Piracy Suppression Act, Legal Framework for MASS, Electronic Bill of Laden.

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Opinions

Am I A Thief?

Sometimes, we think being a thief is only about taking what is not ours in obvious ways.

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One of our Sudanese brothers once shared a deeply touching story titled “Am I a Thief?”—and honestly, it’s not just a story… it’s a mirror to the soul.

He spoke of two moments that seemed small on the surface, yet carried profound weight.

He had traveled to Ireland for a medical exam. The fee was £309, but without change, he paid £310. It felt insignificant—just £1 extra. He completed his exams and eventually returned to Sudan, probably never thinking about it again.

But then… a letter arrived.

Inside was a check for £1, with a message that pierced deeper than the money itself:

“You made a mistake when paying your exam fees. The fee was £309, but you paid £310. This is your £1… we do not take more than what is rightfully ours.”

Pause for a moment and let that sink in…

The envelope, the stamp, the process—it all costs more than £1. Yet, integrity was not measured by cost, but by principle.

It wasn’t about the money. It was about doing what is right… even when no one is watching, even when it doesn’t “make sense.”

The second moment:

On his daily route between college and home, he would stop by a small grocery shop run by a woman and buy chocolate for 18 pence.

One day, he noticed something different. The same chocolate—same size, same quality—but now there were two prices: 18 pence and 20 pence.

Curious, he asked why.

She calmly explained:
“There were issues in Nigeria, where we get cocoa. Prices have gone up. The new stock is 20 pence, but the old one remains 18.”

He thought logically, like many of us would:
“Then people will only buy the 18 until it finishes, before moving to 20.”

She nodded, “Yes, I know.”

So he suggested what seemed like a “smart” solution:
“Why not mix them together and sell everything at 20? No one will know the difference.”

She leaned closer… lowered her voice… and asked a question that struck like lightning:

“Are you a thief??”

He was stunned. Speechless.

He walked away—but that question followed him… echoed within him… refused to let him go:

“Am I a thief??!!”

Sometimes, we think being a thief is only about taking what is not ours in obvious ways.

But this story challenges something deeper.

It asks:
What do we do with the little things?
The unnoticed moments?

The quiet opportunities to bend the truth… just a little?

Because integrity is not proven in grand gestures.

It is revealed in the smallest decisions—when profit is possible, when shortcuts are easy, when no one would ever know.

And perhaps the real question is not what others call us…but what our conscience whispers when we are alone.

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Democracy Still Struggling 33 Years After June 12, PDP Laments by Comrade Ini Ememobong

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As Nigerians commemorate Democracy Day, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has declared that three decades after the historic June 12, 1993 presidential election, democracy remains under severe threat in the country.

In a strongly worded press statement issued on Thursday, the PDP paid tribute to the freest and fairest election in Nigeria’s history and the sacrifices made by citizens who defended the people’s mandate.

The party recalled the remarkable enthusiasm displayed by Nigerians during the 1993 polls, when citizens transcended ethnic and religious fault lines to vote for national progress.

The statement, signed by Comrade Ini Ememobong, National Publicity Secretary of the PDP Interim National Working Committee, noted that undemocratic forces aborted the popular will, triggering a prolonged resistance that claimed many lives.

“Thirty-three years later, the lessons of June 12 ring out more resoundingly than ever,” the PDP said, urging the Federal Government to uphold democratic principles, guarantee civil rights including the right to peaceful assembly and protest, and protect the rights of the opposition.

The party also reminded the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of its sacred duty to conduct elections with “transparent impartiality and unimpeachable fairness,” describing these as minimum standards rather than mere aspirations.

However, the PDP expressed deep disappointment over what it described as the current administration’s failure to learn from history.

“Reality check, however, provides damning evidence that under this APC-led Federal Government, the lessons of June 12 remain painfully unlearnt,” the statement read. “Today, of all days — a day set aside to honour the blood of democratic martyrs — peaceful protesters were teargassed and assaulted in Abuja.”

The party highlighted the case of activist Omoleye Sowore, who was reportedly injured and hospitalised while demanding the immediate release of schoolchildren and teachers held hostage in different parts of the country.

The PDP accused the Tinubu administration of prioritising “optics over action, propaganda over policy,” and living in “a dangerous utopian self-delusion,” thereby reducing Democracy Day to a mere historic remembrance instead of a celebration of democratic consolidation.

Looking ahead to the 2027 general elections, the opposition party called on all citizens to remain vigilant and unrelenting in their demand for genuine democratic consolidation.

“The sacrifices of the past must not be reduced to ceremonial memory. They must be active warnings that this country must never again travel the path of state-engineered anti-democratic actions,” the PDP warned.

Comrade Ini Ememobong, mnipr is the National Publicity Secretary, Interim National Working Committee of the Peoples Democratic Party.

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Nigeria Cannot Build Flood Resilience While Destroying Its Wetlands

The next 10 to 20 years are likely to bring even more dangerous combinations of intense rainfall, river flooding, urban flooding, and coastal flooding/erosion.

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By DrJoseph Onoja

Every rainy season in Nigeria now arrives with a familiar sense of anxiety. Roads disappear beneath floodwaters, homes are submerged, businesses are disrupted, and lives are displaced.

What was once considered a seasonal inconvenience has become a recurring national emergency.

But Nigeria’s flooding crisis is no longer simply about rain.It is the result of a dangerous collision between climate change, environmental degradation, and weak urban planning.

Climate change is intensifying rainfall patterns across Africa, but human activities like deforestation, wetland destruction, poor drainage systems, and uncontrolled development on floodplains are multiplying the scale of destruction.

The uncomfortable truth is this: flooding in Nigeria is becoming structural.

Climate change may trigger the rainfall, but environmental degradation determines whether rain becomes disaster.

Climate Change Is Intensifying the Risk

Scientific evidence continues to show that extreme rainfall events are becoming more intense across Africa.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to increase as global warming accelerates.

In cities like Lagos, the impacts are already visible. Urban flooding has become more widespread, with both short-duration high-intensity rainfall and prolonged rainfall events increasing flood risks.

However, climate change alone does not explain the scale of devastation we are witnessing.

Ordinarily, heavy rainfall should not automatically become a disaster.

Healthy wetlands, functional drainage systems, protected floodplains, and well-planned urban infrastructure are designed to absorb and manage excess water.

” In Lagos, this issue is particularly critical. Water bodies, lagoons, creeks, and wetlands cover more than 62% of the state’s land area, while another significant portion remains seasonally flood prone.”

But when these natural and engineered systems fail or are deliberately compromised, communities become increasingly vulnerable.Nigeria’s flood challenge is therefore not only a climate issue. It is also a planning and governance issue.

Nigeria Is Destroying Its Natural Flood Defences

One of the most overlooked aspects of flood resilience in Nigeria is the role of nature itself.

Forests, wetlands, mangroves, and floodplains act as natural flood buffers. They absorb excess water, slow runoff, reduce erosion, and minimize flood peaks.

In many ways, they function as invisible infrastructure protecting communities from disaster.

Yet across Nigeria, these ecosystems are being degraded at alarming rates.

Deforestation reduces the soil’s ability to absorb water, increasing surface runoff and erosion. Sediments washed into drainage systems reduce their capacity and worsen urban flooding.

At the same time, wetlands and floodplains are increasingly being sandfilled and converted for construction and urban expansion.

The irony is embedded in the name itself: floodplains exist to absorb floods.

In Lagos, this issue is particularly critical. Water bodies, lagoons, creeks, and wetlands cover more than 62% of the state’s land area, while another significant portion remains seasonally flood prone.

When these ecosystems are filled, degraded, or built over, floodwater has fewer places to disperse safely. Instead, it ends up in homes, roads, and communities.

Wetlands are not vacant land waiting for development; they are natural infrastructure protecting cities from collapse.

The implications are enormous. Sensitive ecological areas such as the Lekki Conservation Centre continue to serve as natural buffers by receiving, retaining, and absorbing water from surrounding environments.

If such ecological buffers are lost to uncontrolled development, entire communities become significantly more exposed to flooding risks with attendant consequences for human health, livelihoods, wellbeing, infrastructure, and property.

Nigeria’s Adaptation Gap Is Growing

Nigeria is not standing completely still. There are signs of progress.

The Lagos Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan identify dozens of adaptation projects and estimates financing needs between US$9 billion and US$16 billion by 2035.

This reflects increasing recognition that climate resilience must become a development priority.

But adaptation efforts are still not keeping pace with the speed of urban growth and climate risk.

Rapid urbanization, inadequate drainage systems, weak urban governance, and insufficient climate-resilient infrastructure continue to increase exposure across many Nigerian cities.

The next 10 to 20 years are likely to bring even more dangerous combinations of intense rainfall, river flooding, urban flooding, and coastal flooding/erosion.

Sea level rise will further worsen risks in low-lying coastal cities, especially Lagos.

Without urgent intervention, the economic, social, and environmental costs will continue to rise.

The cost of protecting ecosystems today is far lower than the cost of rebuilding cities tomorrow.

Nature-Based Solutions Must Become National Policy

Nigeria cannot engineer its way out of this crisis through concrete alone. Flood resilience requires a combination of infrastructure investment and ecological protection.

Nature-based solutions must become central to national and subnational climate adaptation strategies.

This means:

  • • Protecting and restoring forests, wetlands, mangroves, and floodplains

• Strengthening drainage and storm water systems

• Enforcing risk-sensitive urban planning regulations

• Preventing development on ecologically sensitive areas

• Improving solid waste management to prevent blocked drainage systems

• Investing in low-carbon and climate-resilient growth pathways.

These actions are not optional environmental luxuries. They are essential investments in public safety, economic stability, and national resilience.

The future of flood resilience in Nigeria will depend as much on ecological protection as on engineering.

A Defining Choice for Nigeria

Floods are no longer isolated disasters. They are warning signs. They reveal the growing consequences of ignoring environmental limits while cities expand faster than resilience systems can keep pace.

They expose the cost of treating ecosystems as expendable rather than essential.

Nigeria still has a choice. We can continue reacting to flood disasters after they occur, or we can invest in prevention, resilience, and nature-based infrastructure before the next crisis arrives.

Protecting Forests, wetlands, restoring degraded ecosystems, and strengthening climate adaptation systems are not simply environmental priorities.

They are national development imperatives.The future resilience of Nigeria’s cities may well depend on how seriously we take them today.

Dr Joseph Onoja , a conservation scientist, is the Director – General of the Nigerian Conservation Foundation (NCF).

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