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Agbakoba Writes Oyetola on ‘Unlocking Nigeria’s Maritime Potential to Generate ₦70 Trillion Annually’

In the West and Central Africa region, 80% of containers are destined for Nigeria, but less than 20% actually arrive because of the decayed infrastructure—whether at Lagos, Port Harcourt, or other ports.

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IN SUMMARY

The N70 trillion will come from :

1. Port Infrastructure Development (N14 trillion annually)

2. Inland Waterways Development (N10-12 trillion annually).

3. Cabotage Enforcement (N8 trillion annually).

4. Oil Rig Taxation (N6 trillion annually—approximately 17% of the National Budget).

5. Oil and Gas Maritime Services (N16 trillion in annual losses)

6. Maritime Security and Blue Economy (N8-10 trillion annually).

7. Emerging Maritime Technologies (N5-6 trillion annually).

Dr. Olisa Agbakoba SAN Senior Partner, Olisa Agbakoba Legal (OAL), recently wrote to the minister of finance / coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun , on  Positioning Nigeria Towards A N1 Quadrillion Economy.

This time, he writes to the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola, on the subject: “Unlocking Nigeria’s Maritime Potential to Generate ₦70 Trillion Annually.

INTRODUCTION

The maritime sector is potentially Nigeria’s largest economic sector outside oil and gas.

The Nigerian Institution of Marine Engineers and Naval Architects (NIMENA) projects that the maritime industry could contribute approximately $44 billion (N70 trillion) annually to Nigeria’s GDP with improved governance and regulation.

However, we are currently losing enormous revenue due to inadequate legal frameworks, poor infrastructure, and insufficient private sector participation.

The adoption of the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) by the Federal Executive Council is most welcome.

The policy document contains comprehensive recommendations for legal and regulatory reforms.

What is now needed is decisive implementation to unleash the sector’s tremendous potential.

It is within this implementation context that I write to present specific, revenue-generating interventions that can accelerate the policy’s objectives and deliver quantifiable outcomes within one year.

• Cargo ships

THE OPPORTUNITY: N70 TRILLION IN ANNUAL RECOVERABLE REVENUE

OAL study reveals that Nigeria’s maritime sector presents extraordinary opportunities currently unrealised due to legal and regulatory gaps.

The transformative element of this proposal is that the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) already contains most of the required legal and institutional reforms needed to capture these opportunities.

I shall now proceed to set them out as follows:

1. Port Infrastructure Development (N14 trillion annually)

Ports are critical to the development of any economy.

If people produce goods but cannot move them, the economy cannot get ahead.

In the West and Central Africa region, 80% of containers are destined for Nigeria, but less than 20% actually arrive because of the decayed infrastructure—whether at Lagos, Port Harcourt, or other ports.

A recent report by Dynanmar, a Dutch consultancy firm, shows that Nigeria loses approximately N20 billion daily at the ports due to poor infrastructure and inefficiencies, with most revenue flowing to neighbouring ports, particularly Cotonou, Tema, and Lomé.Nigeria should be a maritime hub like Morocco, which is building one of the biggest sea ports to trade effectively with Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.

But we cannot be a maritime hub if our ports are in a bad state.

Yet the Lekki Deep Sea Port demonstrates the transformative potential—it is already attracting over $20 billion in investment and provides a replicable model for port modernization across Nigeria. Imagine what would come if all other ports were operating optimally.

The Apapa City Port requires massive overhaul. Strategic ports remain grossly underdeveloped or abandoned.

The Onitsha River Port lies idle despite its potential to transform inland cargo movement and decongest Lagos ports. New ports at Azumiri and Oraji are underdeveloped.

Port development projects in Akwa Ibom and Ogun states are commendable, but much more needs to be done.

To unlock this opportunity requires:

(a) enacting the Ports and Inland Waterways Development Act to modernise port operations, establish legal backing for Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in port development, reform governance of the Nigerian Ports Authority to improve efficiency and competitiveness, regulate inland waterway transport ensuring safe navigation and infrastructure investment, and provide incentives for private sector investment in modern port infrastructure and smart port technology;

(b) amending the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) Act (1999) to enhance private sector participation through robust PPP frameworks; and(c) amending the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) Act (1997) to mandate systematic dredging programmes, establish inland port development frameworks, and enable private sector participation in waterway management.

Achieving cargo dwell time of 48 hours or less and port throughput growth of 15% yearly or more are critical performance indicators.

Revenue streams include port tariffs and cargo handling fees from vessels using Nigerian ports, berthing and anchorage fees, container storage fees, transit trade fees for landlocked countries using Nigerian ports, and special economic zones for shipbuilding, repairs, and logistics.

2. Inland Waterways Development (N10-12 trillion annually).

The bad state of the ports is directly connected to our inland waterways. When the British were here, we had 42 inland waterways connected to roads and railways for cargo movement.

Nigeria must build a multimodal superhighway linking roads, trains, and inland waterways to maximize our trade potential.Nigeria’s inland waterways represent transformational economic corridors comparable to the Nile in Egypt.

Dredging the River Benue to Lokoja and the River Niger from Baro in Niger State to the Atlantic Ocean to a minimum draught of ten feet will enable transportation from Baro to Onitsha by speed boat in 90 minutes instead of 9 hours, and ferrying tonnes of yam and other farm produce from Makurdi to Onitsha on self-propelled barges in three hours.

Over 25,000 foreign vessels illegally trade in Nigeria’s coastal waters, representing both a national security challenge and massive economic loss.

The Nile River, at 26 to 36 feet deep, supports busy traffic of cargo and cruise ships, with cruises costing up to $500 per person for four days.

A fully operational Niger-Benue river system would dramatically reduce transportation costs, decongest road infrastructure, and create substantial tourism revenues comparable to Egypt’s Nile-based economic corridor.

This requires:(a) amendments to the NIWA Act to mandate systematic dredging programmes and inland port development;(b) enacting a Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) Act to regulate ocean space usage and avoid conflicts between industries (fishing, shipping, tourism, offshore energy), establishing a Marine Spatial Planning Authority to allocate maritime zones, setting rules for zoning fishing areas, shipping lanes, conservation zones, and renewable energy projects, and providing mechanisms for stakeholder consultation and dispute resolution;(c) enacting a Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture Act to strengthen regulation of fisheries and aquaculture ensuring sustainability and food security, introducing a national fisheries management system to enforce fishing quotas and conservation rules, creating a licensing system for commercial and artisanal fisheries, banning destructive fishing practices and regulating foreign fishing vessels, and strengthening penalties for Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing; and

(d) revitalisation of abandoned inland ports including the Onitsha River Port to restore the integrated multimodal transport system essential for economic competitiveness.

Revenue streams include toll charges on inland waterway transport managed by NIWA, revenue from ferry services for passenger and cargo transportation, foreign vessel licensing fees for companies fishing in Nigeria’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), commercial fishing permits for industrial-scale fishing companies, artisanal fishing licenses for small-scale fishers, and value-added income from fish processing industries.

3. Cabotage Enforcement (N8 trillion annually)

Over 25,000 foreign vessels illegally trade in Nigeria’s coastal waters, representing both a national security challenge and massive economic loss.

The National Policy specifically recommends reviewing the Coastal and Inland Shipping (Cabotage) Act 2003, strengthening institutions for effective enforcement, encouraging inter-agency synergy for implementation, and streamlining access to the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF).

To capture this opportunity requires:(a) amending the Cabotage Act (2003) to establish strict enforcement mechanisms and compliance requirements, with penalties including vessel seizure for violations, thereby ensuring Nigerian-crewed vessels constitute 50% or more of coastal trade and preventing the ongoing haemorrhaging of revenue to foreign operators;

(b) strengthening inter-agency collaboration between NIMASA, NPA, NIWA, Nigerian Navy, Marine Police, and security agencies for better governance and coordinated enforcement; and

(c) establishing a National Blue Economy Commission as a centralized body to coordinate activities across ministries of transport, environment, fisheries, petroleum, and trade, and develop marine economic zones to attract investments.

Revenue streams include registration fees from Nigerian-flagged vessels under NIMASA, fees from foreign vessels operating in Nigerian waters under the Cabotage Act, seafarers’ certification and training fees from maritime workers and companies, and increased domestic shipping revenues from Nigerian vessels.

4. Oil Rig Taxation (N6 trillion annually—approximately 17% of the National Budget)

Oil rigs have formed a cartel for tax avoidance. OAL is representing NIMASA in a tax avoidance case brought by oil rig companies.

NIMASA has confirmed that tax is currently not collected from oil rigs.Capturing this revenue requires:(a) amending the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) Act (2007) to expand its mandate beyond shipping, marine labor, and environmental protection to include responsibilities for marine conservation and blue economy oversight, establish a robust taxation framework for oil rigs operating in Nigerian waters, increase penalties for maritime pollution, illegal vessel operations, and labor violations, and strengthen NIMASA’s role in coastal tourism and renewable energy initiatives;(b) enacting a Marine Pollution Control and Climate Adaptation Act to strengthen environmental protection measures addressing pollution, oil spills, and climate risks, establish stricter penalties for marine pollution including oil spills, plastic waste, and ship-based pollution, require all offshore oil and gas companies to develop spill response and cleanup plans, support coastal communities with climate adaptation strategies including shoreline protection and disaster response, and mandate green shipping initiatives including reduced carbon emissions for vessels;(c) amending the Petroleum Industry Act (2021) to strengthen regulations on offshore oil and gas drilling to reduce environmental risks and introduce mandatory decommissioning funds for oil companies to clean up decommissioned offshore platforms;(d) creating a Marine Pollution Task Force to monitor and enforce environmental regulations across ports, coastal industries, and offshore platforms; and(e) amending the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Act (1978) to update and increase Nigeria’s control over deep-sea mining and marine biodiversity conservation, and introduce provisions for sustainable offshore energy projects including offshore wind farms.

Revenue streams include royalties from offshore oil drilling and gas extraction, corporate taxes on oil companies operating in deep-sea oil fields, fees for pipeline installations and seabed resource extraction rights, tax revenue from private-sector investments in fish farms and marine aquaculture, revenue from private investment in offshore wind farms and tidal energy projects, and carbon credit sales under global climate agreements for using clean marine energy.

5. Oil and Gas Maritime Services (N16 trillion in annual losses)

This presents enormous losses across four critical value chains that exclude Nigerians.

Over $1 billion worth of legal work annually is lost to foreign firms. Nigerian shipping companies are not engaged to lift our crude oil products.

Funds accruable to Nigeria from crude oil production are domiciled in foreign banks and sometimes held for months before remittance to the Central Bank of Nigeria.

No Nigerian marine insurance company is involved in insurance underwriting for the over 1,000 oil rigs in Nigerian waters.

This stands in stark contrast to Saudi Arabia’s successful IKTVA program, which mandates and enforces local content, ensuring value retention within its economy.

To recapture these losses requires:(a) amending the Merchant Shipping Act (2007) to regulate the shipping industry, ship registration, and safety, and reviewing the legal framework for carriage of cargo from Free on Board (FOB) to Cost Insurance and Freight (CIF) to support growth of a national fleet;(b) strengthening enforcement of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (Local Content Act) 2010 across all excluded value chains including legal services, shipping, banking, and insurance;(c) establishing the Maritime Development Bank to provide critical maritime assets and financing for indigenous capacity development; and(d) developing public-private partnerships (PPPs) in port expansion, inland waterway development, shipbuilding, and maritime infrastructure through tax incentives for investments in sustainable fishing, tourism, and renewable energy.Revenue streams include recaptured legal services fees, shipping revenues from Nigerian vessels lifting crude oil, timely remittance of oil revenues to CBN, and marine insurance underwriting fees.

6. Maritime Security and Blue Economy (N8-10 trillion annually)

This revenue potential comes through increased port traffic, reduced insurance premiums, and enhanced foreign direct investment in maritime infrastructure.

The Deep Blue Project, inaugurated in June 2021, has proven effective—the International Maritime Bureau acknowledged a 30 per cent drop in piracy cases in 2021 alone, demonstrating measurable return on security investments.

However, only a coast guard can adequately protect and assure maritime safety and security.

A fully secured maritime environment would attract international shipping lines currently avoiding Nigerian waters, dramatically increasing port revenues and related economic activities.

Achieving insurance premium reduction of 40% or more through sustained security would further unlock this sector’s potential.

This requires:(a) strengthening implementation of the Suppression of Piracy and Other Maritime Offences (SPOMO) Act of 2019 as specifically recommended in the National Policy;(b) enacting a Coast Guard Establishment Act to create a dedicated institution for maritime safety and security;(c) enacting a Maritime Security and Piracy Suppression Act to strengthen legal measures to combat piracy, sea robbery, and other maritime crimes, provide additional legal backing for Nigerian Navy and Marine Police to enforce security in Nigerian waters, establish specialized maritime courts to handle piracy, smuggling, and maritime security violations, and strengthen public-private partnerships for maritime surveillance including deploying technology for monitoring Nigerian waters;

(d) strengthening the Nigerian Navy and Marine Police through better funding and technology for coastal and offshore surveillance; and

(e) improving collaboration with ECOWAS and Gulf of Guinea partners for regional maritime security.Nigeria should also align with international and regional frameworks including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), International Maritime Organization (IMO) Conventions (MARPOL for pollution control, SOLAS for safety, STCW for seafarers), Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Paris Agreement on Climate Change, FAO Port State Measures Agreement for combating illegal fishing, African Union Blue Economy Strategy, African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), Gulf of Guinea Maritime Security Strategy, and ECOWAS Integrated Maritime Strategy (EIMS).

Revenue streams include fees from shipping companies for naval escort services in piracy-prone areas, revenue from joint maritime security operations with foreign shipping companies, fines imposed on vessels violating maritime laws (illegal fishing, pollution, piracy), confiscation and auctioning of vessels involved in illegal activities, tax revenue from hotels, resorts, and tourism operators along Nigeria’s coastline, fees from coastal ecotourism activities including whale watching, diving, and marine parks, entry fees for protected marine areas and islands, berthing fees from cruise ships docking at Nigerian ports, licenses for private yacht operations and water sports businesses, and luxury tourism taxes on high-end marine tourism experiences.

7. Emerging Maritime Technologies (N5-6 trillion annually)

This revenue potential comes through early adoption advantages and positioning Nigeria as a regional hub for digital maritime services.

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will implement mandatory requirements for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) by January 1, 2028.

Early implementation before this deadline would give Nigeria competitive advantage in West African maritime services, attract technology investments, and capture digital trade documentation fees currently lost to foreign platforms.Nigeria must:

(a) enact the Legal Framework for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) to position Nigeria for emerging maritime technologies before IMO’s mandatory 2028 requirements;(b) enact the Electronic Bill of Lading (eB/L) Framework to digitalise maritime trade documentation and capture fees currently lost to foreign platforms;

(c) enact a Blue Economy Act to establish a comprehensive legal framework for Nigeria’s blue economy covering marine governance, resource management, and economic development, with provisions establishing the National Blue Economy Commission to coordinate activities across ministries and agencies, providing clear rules on marine resource allocation, licensing, and conservation, defining legal responsibilities for the private sector, local communities, and government agencies, and outlining penalties for environmental violations, illegal fishing, and marine pollution;(d) amend the Sea Fisheries Act (1992) to increase fines and penalties for IUU fishing, strengthen monitoring and surveillance of Nigeria’s fishing waters using satellite tracking and observer programs, and require fishing vessels to adopt sustainable practices and report catch data transparently; and

(e) support capacity building and research institutions—support universities and research institutes in marine sciences and innovation to develop indigenous expertise.Revenue streams include revenue from pharmaceutical companies using marine resources for drug development, licensing fees for marine research and bioprospecting companies exploring Nigeria’s waters, tax income from seaweed farming for export as food, cosmetics, and biofuel raw material, government partnerships with investors in marine-based biofuels, government revenue from companies extracting rare earth minerals, manganese, and cobalt from Nigeria’s EEZ, taxes on companies exploring for marine-based minerals for battery production, income from controlled sand dredging for construction and land reclamation, and licensing fees for coral harvesting for medicinal and scientific purposes.

CONCLUSION

Nigeria’s maritime sector presents a N70 trillion annual opportunity (as projected by NIMENA) currently unrealised due to legal and regulatory gaps.

The transformative element of this proposal is that the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) already contains most of the required legal and institutional reforms.

The roadmap exists; what is needed is decisive implementation to translate policy into law and law into measurable economic outcomes.

This policy paper outlines a comprehensive legislative framework comprising nine new laws to be enacted (Ports and Inland Waterways Development Act, Marine Spatial Planning Act, Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture Act, Marine Pollution Control and Climate Adaptation Act, Coast Guard Establishment Act, Maritime Security and Piracy Suppression Act, Legal Framework for MASS, Electronic Bill of Laden.

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The Girl Who Was Almost Married at 10 Is Taking Her Story to the United Nations

On September 4 this week…Sierra Leone’s First Lady is expected to stand before the United Nations General Assembly with a proposal aimed at protecting millions of girls from the same fate.

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Sierra Leone’s First Lady, Fatima Maada Bio

By Ahmed Sahid Nasralla (De Monk)

AT about 10 years old, Fatima Maada Bio already knew who she was expected to marry.

She was a child, but an adult decision had been made about the direction her life should take. Somehow, she escaped that future.

On September 4 this week, many, many years after that little girl could have been sent into a marriage she did not choose, Sierra Leone’s First Lady is expected to stand before the United Nations General Assembly with a proposal aimed at protecting millions of girls from the same fate.

She is expected to present a draft resolution seeking the proclamation of November 27 as an ‘International Day for the Elimination of Child, Early and Forced Marriage’. The proposal is new.

The date is not yet an official UN observance. It is a call for the international community to give the issue a permanent place on its calendar and, with it, sustained attention and action.

There is something deeply personal about that journey.

According to briefing material from the Office of the First Lady of Sierra Leone, she knew at around the age of 10 who she was expected to marry and narrowly escaped child marriage.

That experience did not become a footnote in her life. It became part of the reason she has spent years speaking about the rights and protection of women and girls.

The First Lady’s public advocacy has taken her from communities in Sierra Leone to some of the world’s most important international forums.

Her flagship ‘Hands Off Our Girls’ campaign has focused on ending rape, early marriage and violence against women and girls, while her work has also extended into girls’ education, women’s health and other issues affecting vulnerable communities.

However, her return to the United Nations this time carries a particularly personal weight.

She is taking a subject that could have defined her own childhood and asking the international community to give it greater and lasting attention.

It is not her first attempt to put child protection on the UN agenda.

In 2022, she spearheaded the effort that led the General Assembly to proclaim November 18 as the ‘World Day for the Prevention of and Healing from Child Sexual Exploitation, Abuse and Violence’.

“She is expected to present a draft resolution seeking the proclamation of November 27 as an ‘International Day for the Elimination of Child, Early and Forced Marriage’. The proposal is new.”

UNAIDS describes her as having championed the adoption of that first-ever World Day.

The United Nations has also continued to strengthen its attention to child, early and forced marriage.

In December 2024, the General Assembly adopted a resolution addressing the issue.

Sierra Leone has been moving on the national front too. The country enacted legislation in 2024 prohibiting marriage involving anyone under 18.

So when Fatima Maada Bio walks into the General Assembly this week, she will be carrying a story that has travelled through several stages: from the experience of a young girl, to a national campaign, to legislation, and now to another attempt to secure a place for the issue on the global calendar.

The numbers behind the issue are sobering.

The United Nations and other international organisations have consistently described child marriage as a major barrier to girls’ education, health, economic opportunity and personal autonomy.

Behind every statistic, though, there is a girl whose childhood is being shortened.

There is a school she may leave, friends she may lose, choices she may never get to make, and a future that may be decided for her before she is old enough to understand what that future means. That is why the personal history of the woman making this proposal is important.

Fatima Maada Bio knows what it means for adults to imagine a future for a girl before she has had the opportunity to imagine one for herself. She also knows what it means to get away.

That gives her advocacy a particular human quality. The issue is something she encountered as a child and has carried into her public life as an adult.

The fight has also taken her beyond child marriage. Last week, OncoDaily named her among its 100 Influential Women in Oncology for 2026, recognising her work in women’s health and cancer prevention.

The publication highlighted her partnership with the Merck Foundation, which has supported specialist medical training in Sierra Leone, including scholarships that contributed to the development of the country’s cancer-care workforce.

It also noted her advocacy for breast cancer awareness and early detection and her participation in discussions around the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative.

It is another part of a public role that has increasingly stretched beyond the traditional image of a First Lady.

Then there is child protection, and women’s health.

There is girls’ education, and the wider question of how countries protect women and children who often have the least power over decisions affecting their lives.

The international recognition in oncology is significant for another reason.

It shows that her advocacy is being noticed in fields far removed from the political spotlight in which First Ladies are usually seen.

Nonetheless, the child-marriage campaign remains different. It brings her public work unusually close to her own childhood.

Sierra Leone, as a country, has its own reason to pay attention to what happens in New York this week.

The country has already taken the important step of outlawing marriage involving children under 18.

The First Lady has been one of the most visible voices pushing the protection of girls into the national conversation.

Her campaign has also received international recognition, including her appointment by UNAIDS as a champion for the empowerment and engagement of adolescent girls and young women.

Now she is taking the conversation back to the United Nations. The proposed international day would not, by itself, end child marriage.

A date on the UN calendar cannot keep a girl in school, or protect her from an abusive household or change the circumstances that make families vulnerable to marrying off their daughters.

Those things require laws, enforcement, education, economic opportunity, social protection and changes in attitudes that can take generations.But international days can keep issues alive.

They create opportunities for governments, schools, civil society organisations, communities and international agencies to return to a problem every year, measure progress and remind themselves of what remains unfinished. That is the opportunity behind November 27.

This may also be the reason why the story of the little girl who nearly became a child bride is worth remembering when Fatima Maada Bio enters the General Assembly. She is no longer that girl.

She got education and became a journalist, an actress, an advocate, a mother, and Sierra Leone’s First Lady. She also became the President of the Organisation of African First Ladies for Development.

She is now asking the world to give millions of girls something she was fortunate enough to have: the chance to grow up and become all of that and even more before someone else decides what their lives should become.

That is what, on behalf of Sierra Leone and the world, she is carrying into the United Nations on September 4.

Not a speech or a title. She is carrying a powerful story the General Assembly should listen and act on.

Ahmed Sahid Nasralla is the Ex-Officio and Immediate Past President of the Sierra Leone Association of Journalists (SLAJ), and the Chairman of the Federation of African Journalists (FAJ) Working Group on Climate Change.

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Is Dangote Refinery Playing the Giraffe by Leaving Domestic Oil Supply to Marketers?

Is Nigeria gradually returning to a situation where imported petrol is competing with locally refined PMS, even as Dangote Refinery has the capacity to supply a substantial portion of domestic demand?

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[File Photo] Aliko Dangote

By Ochefa


WHEN I was younger, bedtime storytelling was one of my favourite pastimes in my family. After the evening meal, my mother would usually gather us together for this special treat.
Of all the fables she told us, one that has remained indelibly etched in my memory to this day was Why the Giraffe Eats from Tall Trees.
The story portrayed the giraffe as a humble and considerate animal. Because of its long neck, it could reach the leaves and branches of tall trees, leaving the grasses and shorter vegetation for sheep and goats whose shorter necks could not reach the higher branches.


So, what is the point?

Could the Dangote Petroleum Refinery be playing the giraffe in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market—leaving marketers to supply the domestic market with imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), while it increasingly exports its refined products to other countries?
Recent developments in the petroleum industry appear to lend some credence to this question.
The management of Dangote Petroleum Refinery recently attributed its increased export volumes to rising imports of petrol into Nigeria.

The refinery said the decision to focus more on exports should not be interpreted as a lack of commitment to the Nigerian market.
“Rather, exports are a prudent operational response to the realities of a market where imported products continue to compete with locally refined fuel despite the availability of sufficient domestic refining capacity,” the refinery said.


Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) appear to support the changing supply pattern.
According to the regulator’s recent report, Dangote Refinery’s supply of PMS to the domestic market fell by 21 per cent to 25.8 million litres per day in July, from 32.5 million litres per day in June.


The monthly factsheet showed that the refinery produced about 25.9 million litres of PMS per day in July and exported 3.4 million litres per day.

The July domestic supply figure was reportedly the lowest recorded by the refinery in 2026.
At the same time, petrol imports rose by nine per cent to 19.7 million litres per day, from 18.1 million litres per day in June.
These figures raise an important question: Is Nigeria gradually returning to a situation where imported petrol is competing with locally refined PMS, even as Dangote Refinery has the capacity to supply a substantial portion of domestic demand?
Dangote Refinery has expressed concern about the continued issuance of import licences for petroleum products. It maintains that it has demonstrated sufficient capacity to meet, and even exceed, Nigeria’s domestic PMS requirements.


The refinery said that although it remains committed to Nigeria’s energy security and uninterrupted fuel availability, the continued inflow of imported PMS has created uncertainty around domestic demand forecasting and inventory management.


According to the refinery, it has consistently maintained sufficient inventories and reserved product volumes to guarantee steady supplies to the Nigerian market since commencing operations.


That commitment, it said, has involved substantial investment in storage facilities, logistics and working capital to protect consumers from supply disruptions and market volatility.


Why Dangote Says It Is Exporting More


The refinery’s major concern appears to be the lack of transparency over the volume of imported petrol expected to enter the country.
Without reliable information on future import volumes, it argues, it becomes increasingly difficult to plan production and manage inventories efficiently.


Maintaining large stocks of petrol that may not be absorbed by the domestic market also comes with significant storage and financing costs.


“As a responsible energy provider, we have always endeavoured to keep adequate reserves to satisfy local demand at all times,” the refinery said.
However, where significant quantities of imported PMS continue to enter the market through licences issued by the regulator, and there is limited visibility on future import volumes, the refinery says it becomes commercially unsustainable to hold excess inventory indefinitely.


Its argument is straightforward: when locally refined products cannot be absorbed by the domestic market because of competing imports, the surplus must be moved elsewhere.
Hence, the increased exports.


The refinery insists that this does not mean Nigeria’s domestic market cannot be supplied. Rather, it says the exports are a response to market uncertainty created by competing imports.


It also warned that if supply shortages eventually occur because of market distortions caused by excessive importation and the resulting difficulty in forecasting domestic demand, such shortages should not automatically be blamed on Dangote Refinery.


The company maintains that it remains ready and capable of meeting and exceeding Nigeria’s petroleum product requirements.


Dangote’s Transparency Concern Is Genuine—Expert


Oil and gas expert Dr Ayodele Oni believes Dangote Refinery’s concern over transparency is legitimate.
According to him, Section 317 of the Petroleum Industry Act contemplates the issuance of import licences where there is a demonstrable shortfall.
But, he argued, a shortfall determination that is not published cannot easily be scrutinised.
“NMDPRA should publish, ex ante, the aggregate volume of import authorisations it has approved for each quarter and the shortfall assessment behind them. That is a modest reform and it costs the regulator nothing,” he said.
However, Oni cautioned against simply shutting out imports.
He pointed to the performance of the country’s government-owned refineries, noting that NNPC’s three refineries produced nothing in July.


“A single plant supplying nearly the entire national market, with imports switched off, is a structural risk, not an achievement,” he argued.


He added that the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act exists to address such situations, stressing that regulatory policy should not be based on the assumption that a single refinery will never experience an unplanned outage.

According to him, the solution is structural: a transparent shortfall methodology, published quarterly import quotas, and the development of genuine second and third domestic refineries.
“Everything else is noise,” he said.

” The government cannot simultaneously encourage domestic refining, allow substantial imports without clearly communicating the basis for them, and expect refiners to maintain costly inventories indefinitely.”


Imports or Domestic Refining?


Another industry analyst and former Managing Director of 11PLC, formerly Mobil, Otunba Adetunji Oyebanji, believes Dangote Refinery is within its rights to export.
He argued that the government must retain the flexibility to import petroleum products whenever there is a potential shortfall.
“This is an internationally traded product,” he said, pointing out that even countries with substantial refining capacity, including the United States, continue to import petroleum products.
His argument is that economics, rather than sentiment, ultimately determines where petroleum products are bought and sold.
“We heard that Dangote exported to America. Don’t they have refineries?” he asked rhetorically.
For him, pricing remains a major determinant.
And therein lies the real issue.
The giraffe in my mother’s story was not merely tall; it was considerate. It reached the leaves that other animals could not reach and left the lower vegetation for them.
But Nigeria’s petroleum market is not a fable. Dangote Refinery is a commercial enterprise, not a charitable institution. It must make economically rational decisions, just as marketers and importers do.


The bigger question, therefore, is not whether Dangote Refinery should export.
It is whether Nigeria’s petroleum regulatory framework is creating the right conditions for locally refined products to compete fairly, while ensuring that consumers are protected and the country is not exposed to the risks of relying too heavily on a single refinery.


If Dangote has the capacity to meet domestic demand but finds it more commercially sensible to export because imported PMS is competing with its products at home, then the problem may be bigger than Dangote.
It may point to a regulatory and market-structure problem that requires urgent attention.
The government cannot simultaneously encourage domestic refining, allow substantial imports without clearly communicating the basis for them, and expect refiners to maintain costly inventories indefinitely.


There must be transparency.
There must also be competition.
And, most importantly, Nigeria needs more functioning refineries capable of supplying the domestic market.


Perhaps, then, the lesson from the giraffe is not that Dangote should leave the “grass” to the marketers.
It is that the rules of the forest must be clear enough for every animal to know where it stands.

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BREAKING: Lagos Govt Declares Today, Thursday Work-Free to Mark 2026 Ìṣẹ̀ṣe Day

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The Lagos State Government has declared Thursday, August 20, 2026, a work-free day for public servants, political appointees and others to mark this year’s Ìṣẹ̀ṣe Day celebration.

The announcement was made by the Special Adviser to the Governor on Tourism, Arts and Culture, Idris Aregbe, in a statement on Wednesday. He described Ìṣẹ̀ṣe as “not a relic” but “a living expression of our traditions and a celebration of Yoruba spirituality as an important part of Nigeria’s cultural and religious landscape.”

Authorities expect the event to draw more than three million residents and traditional worshippers in what is billed as one of the largest gatherings of its kind. Celebrations will feature prayers, rituals, processions, drumming and cultural displays dedicated to the Òrìṣà, coordinated by the Association of African Traditional Religion Nigeria and Overseas.

Ìṣẹ̀ṣe Day has been observed as a work-free day in Lagos since 2023, following a request by the Lagos State Council of Obas and Chiefs. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has maintained the practice annually as part of the administration’s commitment to indigenous values and religious inclusiveness under the THEMES+ Agenda.

Normal government activities are expected to resume on Friday, August 21. Residents have been urged to celebrate peacefully and respectfully.

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