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Fuel prices may fall as FEC renews naira-for-crude deal

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Oil marketers have stated that Nigerians will soon heave a sigh of relief as the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, will drastically reduce due to the continuation of crude and refined product sales in the naira initiative by the Federal Government.

They also stated that a major player in the sector, Dangote Refinery, is anticipated to lower its petrol loading costs by the end of this week, further contributing to the reduction in fuel prices.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, reassured the public of the forthcoming price drop while commenting on the Federal Executive Council’s directive regarding the naira-for-crude agreement, announced on Wednesday.

The official, however, couldn’t project the expected amount as the price at which the government will sell its products remains unclear.

This was as the National Publicity Secretary of Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, emphasised the need for greater involvement of other local refiners in the initiative, stressing that broader participation would enhance the economic benefits and strengthen the impact of the deal.

On Wednesday, the Federal Executive Council, after an initial delay, directed the full implementation of the suspended Naira-for-Crude agreement with local refiners.

It said the initiative with local refineries is not a temporary measure but a “key policy directive designed to support sustainable local refining.”

The Ministry of Finance disclosed this in a statement published on its official X handle titled, “Update on the Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira Initiative.”

The statement was released following a meeting on Tuesday between the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, and representatives from Dangote Refinery, a major beneficiary of the agreement, to review progress and address ongoing implementation matters.

The meeting was attended by Edun, the Chairman of the Implementation Committee; the Chairman of the Technical Sub-Committee and Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service, Zacch Adedeji; the Chief Financial Officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Dapo Segun; the Coordinator of NNPC Refineries; Management of NNPC Trading; representatives of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals.

Also present were representatives of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigerian Ports Authority, Afreximbank, and the Secretary of the Committee, Hauwa Ibrahim.

As part of moves to reduce the strain on the US dollar and guarantee price stability of petroleum products, the FEC in July 2024 directed the national oil company to sell crude oil to Dangote Refinery in naira and not in United States’ greenback for an initial phase of six months.

The sale of crude oil and refined petroleum products in naira to local refineries commenced on October 1, 2024 to improve supply, save the country millions of dollars in petroleum products imports, and ultimately reduce pump prices.

However, in March, Dangote refinery said it had temporarily halted the sale of petroleum products in naira. The refinery said the decision to halt sales in naira was “necessary to avoid a mismatch between our sales proceeds and our crude oil purchase obligations, which are currently denominated in U.S. dollars”.

Immediately after the announcement, private depot owners effected an increase in loading cost and effectively raised pump price from around N860 to about N960 per litre, making consumers pay at least N70 more than what it used to cost them to buy a litre of the premium commodity days earlier.

But in a fresh update on Wednesday, the committee said the policy is not temporary but a long-term plan to cut Nigeria’s dependence on foreign exchange for petroleum.

It added that the initiative is not a temporary or time-bound intervention but a key policy directive designed to support sustainable local refining and bolster energy security.

The statement read, “The Technical Sub-Committee on the Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira initiative convened an update meeting on Tuesday to review progress and address ongoing implementation matters.

“The stakeholders reaffirmed the government’s continued commitment to the full implementation of this strategic initiative, as directed by the Federal Executive Council.“

Thus, the Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira initiative is not a temporary or time-bound intervention, but a key policy directive designed to support sustainable local refining, bolster energy security, and reduce reliance on foreign exchange in the domestic petroleum market.”

The policy, which mandates the transaction of crude oil and refined petroleum products in Naira, is aimed at strengthening the country’s economic sovereignty, enhancing local refining capacity, and stabilising the foreign exchange market by reducing the demand for dollars in domestic petroleum transactions.

The ministry explained that this policy is structured to foster energy security and encourage investment in domestic refining infrastructure.

While acknowledging that the transition involves complexities, the government admitted that existing challenges are being systematically addressed.

“As with any major policy shift, the committee acknowledges that implementation challenges may arise from time to time.“

However, such issues are being actively addressed through coordinated efforts among all parties. The initiative remains in effect and will continue for as long as it aligns with the public interest and supports national economic objectives,” the statement concluded.

Commenting, industry players said the resumption of Naira-denominated crude sales would reduce the strain on the US dollar and guarantee the price stability of petroleum products.

The IPMAN national publicity secretary, in his expert opinion, welcomed the recent development, noting that it reflects the President’s willingness to listen to stakeholders, which is a positive sign for the country’s energy sector. He said the deal was always expected to be implemented.

Ukadike said, “We have always mentioned that the deal was definitely going to be implemented. We don’t know the details of the new agreement.

IPMAN welcomes the latest development and it shows Mr. President has listening ears with this kind of output from the government. It shows that inputs from individuals and stakeholders matter a lot.

The policy doesn’t deter anyone who wants to import petroleum products. But the most important thing is that they should go ahead and ensure that the conclusion affects prices in the market.

“With this new decision taken by the government, I also believe earnestly that just with the complaint of marketers crying of huge losses caused by a sudden drop in price. Their plea is also yielding fruit.”

He added that with the positive development and recent fall in the price of crude, the 650,000 is poised to reduce its loading price downward before the end of the current week.

“I believe that from now till the end of the week, the Dangote refinery will come up with a new price. They can’t complain of having old stock because that is not the best practice internationally.”

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BREAKING: First Abu Dhabi Bank to establish branch in Nigeria

First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) is the UAE’s largest bank, formed in 2017 by the merger of First Gulf Bank and National Bank of Abu Dhabi.

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•Photo: Nigeria’s Minister of State for Finance, Dr Doris Uzoka- Anite with the executives of First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB)

First Abu Dhabi Bank is prepared to establish a branch in Nigeria.

This was the outcome of a strategic discussion  between Nigeria’s Minister of State for Finance, Dr Doris Uzoka- Anite with the executives of First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) on enhanced financial collaboration ahead of the Bank’s plans to establish a branch in Nigeria. 

“This engagement reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s reforms and our commitment to attracting credible global capital to support growth and development,” said the minister on her X.

Uzoka- Anite emphasised that the engagement focused on opportunities for strengthened financial intermediation, increased capital flows, and expanded banking services to support Nigeria’s economic reforms and development priorities.

Uzoka-Anite reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to creating an enabling environment for global investors, noting that the planned entry of FAB reflects growing international confidence in Nigeria’s reforms and improving investment climate.

A background check on the Bank showed that First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) is the UAE’s largest bank, formed in 2017 by the merger of First Gulf Bank and National Bank of Abu Dhabi.

Headquartered in Abu Dhabi, it offers corporate, investment, and personal banking services across 20+ markets. FAB is recognized as one of the world’s safest institutions.

Aiming to be the best Arab bank for the Arab world, it recently reported a 22% increase in net profit for Q4 2024, driven by strong business volumes.

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Nigeria’s economy may be back from the brink — The Economist

Improvements in macroeconomic stability are restoring investor confidence.

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President Bola Tinubu

A spate of painful reforms is beginning to show results.

When nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo, the elected president, set out to clean up the economy after years of mismanagement by military governments.

Initially dismissed by critics, by the end of his second term Mr Obasanjo’s liberal policies had tamed inflation, spurred investment and raised annual gdp growth to around 7 percent.

It didn’t last. Over the past decade gdp per person has fallen.

Yet evidence is now mounting that another stretch of “golden years”, as one analyst calls the period following Mr Obasanjo’s liberalisation, may be on the cards.

In the past two and a half years Bola Tinubu, who in Mr Obasanjo’s day was the governor of Lagos and was elected president in 2023, has been enacting his own set of structural reforms.

As he gears up to run for a second term in 2027, they may be starting to pay off.

It is difficult to overstate the mess Mr Tinubu inherited.

When he took office in 2023, the country’s central bank had $7 billion (equivalent to 1.4% of gdp at the time) in obligations it could not meet, prompting international investors to flee en masse.

The bank’s credibility had been dented by a recklessly loose monetary policy, its mismanagement of dwindling foreign-exchange reserves and efforts to maintain an unsustainable tiered exchange-rate system.

Poverty has risen. But it looks as though Mr Tinubu’s bitter medicine is helping.

In 2022 alone the cash-strapped government spent some $10 billion, equivalent to 2.2% of gdp, on a ruinous fuel subsidy.

To fix things, Mr Tinubu’s government got on with a package of drastic structural reforms. It abolished the fuel subsidy and abandoned that multi-tiered system of dollar-pegged exchange rates, largely allowing the naira to float.

The Central Bank aggressively tightened monetary policy to curb the resulting bout of inflation.

The government also moved to improve security in the Niger Delta and offered a range of tax incentives to investors to boost dwindling oil production.

Nearly three years on, Nigeria’s 230 million people, especially the poor and the middle class, are still reeling from increases in fuel and food prices.

Poverty has risen. But it looks as though Mr Tinubu’s bitter medicine is helping.

The annual inflation rate, which hit a nearly 30-year high of 34.8% in December 2024, fell to 15.2% in December 2025.

Growth is returning.

The IMF expects the economy to expand by 4.4% in 2026.

Following two steep devaluations in 2023, the naira has stabilised (see chart).

The Central Bank’s foreign-exchange reserves have risen to $46 billion, their highest level in seven years.

Improvements in macroeconomic stability are restoring investor confidence.

On January 22nd Shell, a British company, said it hopes in 2027 to finalise plans, with partners, to develop a $20 billion offshore oilfield that has been sitting untapped for over 20 years.

Exxon Mobil, an American firm, has committed $1.5 billion to deep water development until 2027.

Local business leaders are more upbeat, too.

Oil-and-gas production is rising, much of it driven by local firms plugging leaks and improving output in onshore projects in the Niger Delta, which has become safer thanks to Mr Tinubu’s focus on security there.

All this should give the government some fiscal breathing room, particularly as the cheaper naira begins to raise the competitiveness of Nigeria’s non-oil exports such as cocoa and cashew nuts.

Recent reforms to taxation and tax collection, Mr Tinubu’s latest project, should help improve revenues further in the coming years.

Falling inflation should eventually begin to ease the cost-of-living pain.

However, even optimists have plenty of reasons to be cautious.

Savings from the fuel subsidy have largely been spent on servicing the public debt, which is still rising as the government continues to borrow against future sales of oil to fund its deficit.

Currently, some 60% of revenues are consumed by debt service.

On January 20th Nigeria’s finance minister said the government hoped to borrow less this year, but current budget projections suggest that is not realistic.

“The government is broke.

There’s nothing to invest in the future, that’s the truth,” says Esili Eigbe of Escap, a Nigerian consultancy.

Unless the government cuts civil-service salaries, another big chunk of spending, or is able to restructure loans to make them cheaper, the extra revenue from recent tax reforms looks unlikely to be available for improving infrastructure or to pay for public health care and education.

“They’ve brought the deficit down, but they don’t seem to show any greater ability to get capital projects out of the door,“ says David Cowan, an economist at Citi, an American bank.

All this means that it will take a long time for ordinary Nigerians, who until now have mostly borne the pain of Mr Tinubu’s reforms, to feel any benefit.

Buying food has been a particular struggle, not just for the 42% of Nigerians who live on less than $3 a day, the World Bank’s definition of extreme poverty, but also for the urban middle class.

The price of a kilo of rice has nearly quadrupled since May 2023, while wages have barely budged.

Even though inflation is now falling, many still struggle to afford enough to eat.

Mr Obasanjo’s reforms in the early 2000s aimed to increase economic dynamism and improve people’s lives by attracting fresh capital investment into newly privatised sectors.

By the end of his second term in 2007, domestic companies were worth $85 billion, up from $3 billion in 1999.

Mr Tinubu, by contrast, has so far focused on restoring stability and reviving the country’s ailing oil-and-gas sector. To bring about more golden years for Nigerians, he needs to go beyond that. ■

Credit: The Economist

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FOBTOB seeks fresh dialogue over ban on alcohol in sachets and PET bottles

Therefore, while NAFDAC states that factories will not be shut down, the policy will result in economic shutdown, particularly for indigenous manufacturers and informal-sector participants.

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Food, Beverages and Tobacco Senior Staff Association (FOBTOB) said on Thursday that the NAFDAC’s blanket ban on satchets alcohol is economically destructive.

FOBTOB, there call out for a fresh dialogue comprising the stakeholders in the industry, the National Assembly, the Federal Ministry of Health, NAFDAC and Civil society organizations to engage in open, transparent, and evidence-based dialogue aimed at crafting policies that protect public health without destroying livelihoods or creating regulatory contradictions.

Reacting to a press release issued by the Director-General of the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) today regarding the enforcement of a ban on alcoholic beverages packaged in sachets and small containers below 200ml, FOBTOB President, Jimoh Oyibo, disclosed that while the association acknowledge and fully supports the shared objective of protecting children, adolescents, and vulnerable populations from the harmful use of alcohol

“We must express deep concern that the approach adopted by NAFDAC is disproportionate, economically disruptive, and inconsistent with broader regulatory and public health realities in Nigeria,” he said.

PUBLIC HEALTH IS IMPORTANT — BUT POLICY MUST BE BALANCED AND EVIDENCE-BASED

No reasonable stakeholder disputes that excessive alcohol consumption is harmful.

However, public health challenges require holistic, data-driven, and enforceable solutions, not blanket prohibitions that fail to address root causes.

Alcohol abuse among minors is primarily a challenge of effective enforcement, parental responsibility, public education, and social regulation, rather than one of packaging format.

The size of an alcohol container does not in itself, confer safety, nor does increasing pack sizes prevent access by minors.

The global public health evidence consistently demonstrates that behavioural regulation, age-restriction enforcement, education-driven interventions, and appropriate sanctions are more effective in addressing underage alcohol consumption than blanket product bans.

NAFDAC’S CLAIM ON UNINTERRUPTED COMPANY OPERATIONS – CONTRADICTED BY EVIDENCE

Notwithstanding representations made by affected stakeholders, access to these depots has not been restored by NAFDAC, and this is affecting normal business operations negatively.

As a labour union, the livelihoods of our members will be adversely affected by the closure of manufacturers’ depots.

We have compiled records of these enforcement actions for reference and ongoing engagement, which are presented alongside this article.

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES CANNOT BE IGNORED

For many indigenous distillers, blenders, and distributors, sachet and sub-200ml packaging does not constitute a marginal segment of their operations but rather is the foundation of the core business model.

These packaging formats were intentionally developed to serve low-income consumers, informal retail channels, and rural markets where considerations such as affordability, portability, and unit pricing determine demand.

Also, the claim that the policy only affects “two packages” does not fully convey the magnitude of the impact.

In operational terms:

Production lines are configured specifically for sachet and small-format bottling.

Distribution networks are optimized for high-volume, low-unit sales

Retail reach is largely dependent on maintaining affordability at the lowest price points.

For many small and medium-scale operators, this transition will not be financially attainable.

Therefore, while NAFDAC states that factories will not be shut down, the policy will result in economic shutdown, particularly for indigenous manufacturers and informal-sector participants.

The ban on sachets and small containers below 200ml also risks tilting the market in favour of larger, better-capitalized multinational players who can absorb retooling costs and pivot to premium pack sizes.

Smaller local producers, who rely overwhelmingly on sachet sales, are disproportionately harmed, raising concerns about market concentration and unfair competitive outcomes.

Public health and economic survival are not mutually exclusive.

Nigeria deserves policies that are balanced, humane, enforceable, and fair.

The solution lies in moderation, education, and enforcement, not in policies that punish many while failing to address the real drivers of abuse.

SIGNED BYJIMOH OYIBONATIONAL PRESIDENT FOOD, BEVERAGE AND TOBACCO SENIOR STAFF ASSOCIATION (FOBTOB

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