Business
FG Plans to Save N7trn As Dangote Refinery Petrol hits market in July
The Federal Government is making plans to save about N35tn in fiscal expenditure within the next five years with the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals.
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele, disclosed this on Monday during the ceremony to inaugurate the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemical facility in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.
President Muhammadu Buhari, who inaugurated the refinery, which is currently the world’s largest single-train petroleum refiner, said his regime had been deliberate about ensuring public-private partnerships, while describing the refinery as a milestone for the Nigerian economy and a game-changer for the downstream petroleum market in the African continent.
Buhari said, “I recall that just about a year ago, I was here to commission your fertiliser (plant) and had the opportunity to briefly inspect this refinery complex which was under construction. The Group Chairman, Aliko Dangote, assured me that the refinery will be ready for commissioning before the end of my tenure.
“I’m aware that this is not the first time that the Dangote Group under Alhaji Aliko Dangote’s leadership is putting Nigeria on the global map through his bold investments in key industries. This has helped to transform our economy from heavy import dependence to a net exporter in some critical industries including cement and fertiliser.”
At the inauguration, which had in attendance senior government officials from Nigeria and other African countries, Buhari described the refinery as a game-changer, just as the Founder/Chairman, Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, declared that the facility would put an end to the inflow of toxic substandard petroleum products into Nigeria.
The project was inaugurated at the Dangote Industries Free Zone, Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos State. It was attended by governors, lawmakers, government functionaries, royal fathers, captains of industries and prominent Nigerians from all walks of life.
According to the president, Nigeria’s economy, which has been stressed for many years and over a decade of insurgency, has also been severely impacted by several external crises including the global financial crisis, the collapse of oil prices, the Coronavirus pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war.
The consequences of these challenges, he said, constituted a severe strain on the economy, limiting government’s ability to provide basic infrastructure without resorting to huge borrowing.
He said, “Our government, therefore, focused its attention on creating an enabling environment for the private sector to thrive and fill the enormous gap in investments, not only in infrastructure, but also in all critical sectors.”
Dangote also stated that the refinery would start delivering refined products to the Nigerian market from July this year, as operators urged the Federal Government to ensure transparency in the supply of crude oil to the 650,000 barrels per day crude oil processing refinery.
Speaking at the event, the founder of the refinery, Dangote, said, “It is our firm commitment that we will replicate in this sector what we have actually achieved in the cement and fertiliser markets, while Nigeria transformed from being the largest importer of these crude products to a net exporter.”
He pointed out that the “first goal is to ramp up projections of various production to ensure that within this year, we are able to fully satisfy our nation’s demand for higher quality products to enable us to eliminate the tragedy of import dependency and stop, once and for all, the dumping in our market of toxic substandard petroleum products.
“Our first products will be in the market before the end of July, beginning of August this year.”
He also said the refinery plans to export to 53 African countries which depend on other countries for petroleum products.
Meanwhile, Emefiele said the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals could spare Nigeria about N5tn to N7tn annually in the fiscal expenditures of the federal government over the next five years.
He noted that the project would support the fiscal operations of the government, easing budget constraints of funding fuel subsidy.
The CBN governor added that the cost of fuel subsidy may hit N4.4tn by the end of 2022.
He said, “This project will equally provide support to the fiscal operations of the government as it could help ease budget constraints of funding the petroleum subsidy and engender fiscal savings. Available data indicate that, over a five-year period, fuel subsidy in Nigeria rose more than nine-folds from about N154bn in 2017 to over N1.43tn before another three-fold rise to N4.4tn by the end of 2022.
“A simple straight-line projection suggests that this figure could surpass N7tn within the next three years if we do not tackle it effectively. Thankfully, the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals could spare Nigeria about N5tn to N7tn annually in fiscal expenditure of the federal government over the next five years.”
12,000MW electricity projected
Emefiele also expressed optimism that Nigeria, under the incoming administration, would cease importing petroleum products, fertiliser and petrochemicals and save the country over $26bn.
He said, “Nigeria will cease importing petroleum products, fertiliser and petrochemical that drained over $26bn in 2022. The self-sufficiency in refined petroleum, urea, and polypropylene, which Nigeria has attained with this project is a strong testament to how leadership, dedication, focus, commitment, and resilience have helped Nigeria on its drive towards import substitution and export orientation.”
The CBN governor also noted that the take-off of the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical factories came with some economic benefits to Nigeria, such as generating thousands of direct jobs and millions of indirect jobs, with over 135,000 permanent jobs.
He added that nearly 4,000 Nigerian personnel are on site, excluding employment by the various contractors and subcontractors at the project site.
The apex bank boss also said that the project would generate up to 12,000WM of electricity, saying, “I am also proud to state that the project will generate up to 12,000MW of electricity. In addition, the refinery and the other ancillary projects will have significant multiplier effects on other sectors of the economy by supporting a diverse range of sectoral value-chains.”
Emefiele further said that the project could save the country in terms of foreign exchange and fiscal burden.
He said, “According to the balance of payments statistics, the cost (including freight) of petroleum products imports into Nigeria doubled over a five-year period from about $8.4bn in 2017 to $16.2bn (indicating an annual average of $11.1bn), before rising further to $23.3bn by end-2022. At this rate, the average annual cost of petroleum products imports to Nigeria could reach $30bn by 2027 if we continued to rely on petroleum imports. These figures suggest that the refinery could engender foreign exchange savings, to the country, of between $25bn and $30bn annually.”
He added that the country could earn about $30bn foreign exchange savings and an extra $10bn, making a total of $40bn foreign exchange savings.
“The impact of this savings will be directly reflected in Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves by reducing the pressure on our balance of payments. There are also substantial benefits that we will gain from the export of refined products to the rest the world.
“In addition to the nearly $30bn foreign exchange savings from the reduction in petroleum imports, the economy is projected to benefit an extra $10bn of foreign exchange inflow annually through the export of refined petroleum products, which will further boost our official reserves and enhance exchange rate stability,” the CBN governor added.
‘Dangote repaying loans’
Emefiele also disclosed that the Dangote Group has paid back about 70 per cent of the loans it took to construct its mega 650,000 barrels per day refinery in Lagos.
The CBN boss said the refinery was initially estimated to cost just about $9bn but the project cost escalated and was eventually completed with a total of $18.5bn.
The amount, he said, constituted 50 per cent equity investment by Dangote and 50 per cent debt finance by banks.
Emefiele said the commercial loan component of the project was financed majorly by domestic banks while the rest was provided by foreign banks.
“We have it on good authority that the Dangote Group has paid off some portion of these commercial loans even before this commissioning today,” Emefiele said.
He noted that the debt for the refinery has decreased from $9bn to $2.7bn, which is a 70 per cent decrease.
African leaders speak
The Group Chief Executive Officer, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Mele Kyari, said the coming on stream of the refinery was a defining moment for Nigeria’s energy sector.
He said NNPC would continue to support investments in the downstream sector that sought to eliminate import-dependency.
Some African leaders who were present at the event described the project as a game-changer that would benefit all of Africa.
Those present at the historic inauguration of the refinery include the President of Ghana, Nana Akufo-Addo; President of Niger Republic, Mohammed Bazoum; President of Chad, Mahamat Deby.
Others include the President of Senegal, Macky Sall, and his Togolese counterpart, Faure Gnassingbé.
In his special remarks, the Ghanaian President, Akufo-Addo, said the refinery would not only strengthen the Nigerian economy, but that of West Africa and the entire continent by extension.
“I’ve said it before, that when we think of West Africa and Africa before our individual countries, we are not just being Pan-Africans, we are being true nationalists because what makes West Africa and indeed Africa better will make each of our individual countries better and more prosperous.
Sanwo-Olu hails Buhari
The Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, praised Buhari, the President-Elect, Bola Tinubu, and Dangote for their contributions to the establishment of the first privately-owned refinery in Nigeria.
Business
BREAKING: First Abu Dhabi Bank to establish branch in Nigeria
First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) is the UAE’s largest bank, formed in 2017 by the merger of First Gulf Bank and National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
•Photo: Nigeria’s Minister of State for Finance, Dr Doris Uzoka- Anite with the executives of First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB)
First Abu Dhabi Bank is prepared to establish a branch in Nigeria.
This was the outcome of a strategic discussion between Nigeria’s Minister of State for Finance, Dr Doris Uzoka- Anite with the executives of First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) on enhanced financial collaboration ahead of the Bank’s plans to establish a branch in Nigeria.
“This engagement reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s reforms and our commitment to attracting credible global capital to support growth and development,” said the minister on her X.
Uzoka- Anite emphasised that the engagement focused on opportunities for strengthened financial intermediation, increased capital flows, and expanded banking services to support Nigeria’s economic reforms and development priorities.
Uzoka-Anite reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to creating an enabling environment for global investors, noting that the planned entry of FAB reflects growing international confidence in Nigeria’s reforms and improving investment climate.
A background check on the Bank showed that First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) is the UAE’s largest bank, formed in 2017 by the merger of First Gulf Bank and National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
Headquartered in Abu Dhabi, it offers corporate, investment, and personal banking services across 20+ markets. FAB is recognized as one of the world’s safest institutions.
Aiming to be the best Arab bank for the Arab world, it recently reported a 22% increase in net profit for Q4 2024, driven by strong business volumes.
Business
Nigeria’s economy may be back from the brink — The Economist
Improvements in macroeconomic stability are restoring investor confidence.
• President Bola Tinubu
A spate of painful reforms is beginning to show results.
When nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo, the elected president, set out to clean up the economy after years of mismanagement by military governments.
Initially dismissed by critics, by the end of his second term Mr Obasanjo’s liberal policies had tamed inflation, spurred investment and raised annual gdp growth to around 7 percent.
It didn’t last. Over the past decade gdp per person has fallen.
Yet evidence is now mounting that another stretch of “golden years”, as one analyst calls the period following Mr Obasanjo’s liberalisation, may be on the cards.
In the past two and a half years Bola Tinubu, who in Mr Obasanjo’s day was the governor of Lagos and was elected president in 2023, has been enacting his own set of structural reforms.
As he gears up to run for a second term in 2027, they may be starting to pay off.
It is difficult to overstate the mess Mr Tinubu inherited.
When he took office in 2023, the country’s central bank had $7 billion (equivalent to 1.4% of gdp at the time) in obligations it could not meet, prompting international investors to flee en masse.
The bank’s credibility had been dented by a recklessly loose monetary policy, its mismanagement of dwindling foreign-exchange reserves and efforts to maintain an unsustainable tiered exchange-rate system.
Poverty has risen. But it looks as though Mr Tinubu’s bitter medicine is helping.
In 2022 alone the cash-strapped government spent some $10 billion, equivalent to 2.2% of gdp, on a ruinous fuel subsidy.
To fix things, Mr Tinubu’s government got on with a package of drastic structural reforms. It abolished the fuel subsidy and abandoned that multi-tiered system of dollar-pegged exchange rates, largely allowing the naira to float.
The Central Bank aggressively tightened monetary policy to curb the resulting bout of inflation.
The government also moved to improve security in the Niger Delta and offered a range of tax incentives to investors to boost dwindling oil production.
Nearly three years on, Nigeria’s 230 million people, especially the poor and the middle class, are still reeling from increases in fuel and food prices.
Poverty has risen. But it looks as though Mr Tinubu’s bitter medicine is helping.
The annual inflation rate, which hit a nearly 30-year high of 34.8% in December 2024, fell to 15.2% in December 2025.
Growth is returning.
The IMF expects the economy to expand by 4.4% in 2026.
Following two steep devaluations in 2023, the naira has stabilised (see chart).
The Central Bank’s foreign-exchange reserves have risen to $46 billion, their highest level in seven years.
Improvements in macroeconomic stability are restoring investor confidence.
On January 22nd Shell, a British company, said it hopes in 2027 to finalise plans, with partners, to develop a $20 billion offshore oilfield that has been sitting untapped for over 20 years.
Exxon Mobil, an American firm, has committed $1.5 billion to deep water development until 2027.
Local business leaders are more upbeat, too.
Oil-and-gas production is rising, much of it driven by local firms plugging leaks and improving output in onshore projects in the Niger Delta, which has become safer thanks to Mr Tinubu’s focus on security there.
All this should give the government some fiscal breathing room, particularly as the cheaper naira begins to raise the competitiveness of Nigeria’s non-oil exports such as cocoa and cashew nuts.
Recent reforms to taxation and tax collection, Mr Tinubu’s latest project, should help improve revenues further in the coming years.
Falling inflation should eventually begin to ease the cost-of-living pain.
However, even optimists have plenty of reasons to be cautious.
Savings from the fuel subsidy have largely been spent on servicing the public debt, which is still rising as the government continues to borrow against future sales of oil to fund its deficit.
Currently, some 60% of revenues are consumed by debt service.
On January 20th Nigeria’s finance minister said the government hoped to borrow less this year, but current budget projections suggest that is not realistic.
“The government is broke.
There’s nothing to invest in the future, that’s the truth,” says Esili Eigbe of Escap, a Nigerian consultancy.
Unless the government cuts civil-service salaries, another big chunk of spending, or is able to restructure loans to make them cheaper, the extra revenue from recent tax reforms looks unlikely to be available for improving infrastructure or to pay for public health care and education.
“They’ve brought the deficit down, but they don’t seem to show any greater ability to get capital projects out of the door,“ says David Cowan, an economist at Citi, an American bank.
All this means that it will take a long time for ordinary Nigerians, who until now have mostly borne the pain of Mr Tinubu’s reforms, to feel any benefit.
Buying food has been a particular struggle, not just for the 42% of Nigerians who live on less than $3 a day, the World Bank’s definition of extreme poverty, but also for the urban middle class.
The price of a kilo of rice has nearly quadrupled since May 2023, while wages have barely budged.
Even though inflation is now falling, many still struggle to afford enough to eat.
Mr Obasanjo’s reforms in the early 2000s aimed to increase economic dynamism and improve people’s lives by attracting fresh capital investment into newly privatised sectors.
By the end of his second term in 2007, domestic companies were worth $85 billion, up from $3 billion in 1999.
Mr Tinubu, by contrast, has so far focused on restoring stability and reviving the country’s ailing oil-and-gas sector. To bring about more golden years for Nigerians, he needs to go beyond that. ■
Credit: The Economist
Business
FOBTOB seeks fresh dialogue over ban on alcohol in sachets and PET bottles
Therefore, while NAFDAC states that factories will not be shut down, the policy will result in economic shutdown, particularly for indigenous manufacturers and informal-sector participants.
Food, Beverages and Tobacco Senior Staff Association (FOBTOB) said on Thursday that the NAFDAC’s blanket ban on satchets alcohol is economically destructive.
FOBTOB, there call out for a fresh dialogue comprising the stakeholders in the industry, the National Assembly, the Federal Ministry of Health, NAFDAC and Civil society organizations to engage in open, transparent, and evidence-based dialogue aimed at crafting policies that protect public health without destroying livelihoods or creating regulatory contradictions.
Reacting to a press release issued by the Director-General of the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) today regarding the enforcement of a ban on alcoholic beverages packaged in sachets and small containers below 200ml, FOBTOB President, Jimoh Oyibo, disclosed that while the association acknowledge and fully supports the shared objective of protecting children, adolescents, and vulnerable populations from the harmful use of alcohol
“We must express deep concern that the approach adopted by NAFDAC is disproportionate, economically disruptive, and inconsistent with broader regulatory and public health realities in Nigeria,” he said.
PUBLIC HEALTH IS IMPORTANT — BUT POLICY MUST BE BALANCED AND EVIDENCE-BASED
No reasonable stakeholder disputes that excessive alcohol consumption is harmful.
However, public health challenges require holistic, data-driven, and enforceable solutions, not blanket prohibitions that fail to address root causes.
Alcohol abuse among minors is primarily a challenge of effective enforcement, parental responsibility, public education, and social regulation, rather than one of packaging format.
The size of an alcohol container does not in itself, confer safety, nor does increasing pack sizes prevent access by minors.
The global public health evidence consistently demonstrates that behavioural regulation, age-restriction enforcement, education-driven interventions, and appropriate sanctions are more effective in addressing underage alcohol consumption than blanket product bans.
NAFDAC’S CLAIM ON UNINTERRUPTED COMPANY OPERATIONS – CONTRADICTED BY EVIDENCE
Notwithstanding representations made by affected stakeholders, access to these depots has not been restored by NAFDAC, and this is affecting normal business operations negatively.
As a labour union, the livelihoods of our members will be adversely affected by the closure of manufacturers’ depots.
We have compiled records of these enforcement actions for reference and ongoing engagement, which are presented alongside this article.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES CANNOT BE IGNORED
For many indigenous distillers, blenders, and distributors, sachet and sub-200ml packaging does not constitute a marginal segment of their operations but rather is the foundation of the core business model.
These packaging formats were intentionally developed to serve low-income consumers, informal retail channels, and rural markets where considerations such as affordability, portability, and unit pricing determine demand.
Also, the claim that the policy only affects “two packages” does not fully convey the magnitude of the impact.
In operational terms:
Production lines are configured specifically for sachet and small-format bottling.
Distribution networks are optimized for high-volume, low-unit sales
Retail reach is largely dependent on maintaining affordability at the lowest price points.
For many small and medium-scale operators, this transition will not be financially attainable.
Therefore, while NAFDAC states that factories will not be shut down, the policy will result in economic shutdown, particularly for indigenous manufacturers and informal-sector participants.
The ban on sachets and small containers below 200ml also risks tilting the market in favour of larger, better-capitalized multinational players who can absorb retooling costs and pivot to premium pack sizes.
Smaller local producers, who rely overwhelmingly on sachet sales, are disproportionately harmed, raising concerns about market concentration and unfair competitive outcomes.
Public health and economic survival are not mutually exclusive.
Nigeria deserves policies that are balanced, humane, enforceable, and fair.
The solution lies in moderation, education, and enforcement, not in policies that punish many while failing to address the real drivers of abuse.
SIGNED BYJIMOH OYIBONATIONAL PRESIDENT FOOD, BEVERAGE AND TOBACCO SENIOR STAFF ASSOCIATION (FOBTOB
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