Opinions
Let Us Make A New Deal For Nigeria , by Chukwuma Soludo
▪︎Being a Convocation Lecture delivered at the Veritas University, Abuja; 7th November, 2024, by Chukwuma Charles Soludo, Governor, Anambra State.
This University is a promising unique experiment in Catholic higher education, and I am glad to celebrate with you on this 13th Convocation ceremony.
This University A Real Centre of Excellence
About 2014, I led a discussion on the financial sustainability of the University under the auspices of the Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria’s (CBCN) finance committee.I am therefore thrilled to learn that the University has not only grown phenomenally over the past 10 years in every aspect but has become a real centre of excellence.
Let me salute the vision of the founding fathers as well as the hard work and determination of the successive management of the University to bring it to this spectacular stage.
800 Students Graduate
May I, at this moment, congratulate all the 800 graduating students for having been found worthy in character and learning to deserve the degrees of this University.
Perhaps, commiserations are also in order, and I will come to this later.I confessed to your Vice-Chancellor, Rev. Fr. (Prof.) Hyacinth Ichoku (who was my student) a few days ago that I was not sure what to say to you at this event.
Graduation Speech or Motivational Speeches
Graduation speeches have become a cliche.I am not sure I remembered what was said at my own graduation lecture nor even who delivered it.In sum, they have become motivational speeches on how fresh graduates should seize the moment and conquer the world— with a litany of principles and practical guides to successful living.
There are dozens of self-help books and with phones in your hands, you can Google and educate yourselves better. Or better still, with variants of Artificial Intelligence platforms, AI can help you piece together a better “to-do list” for fresh graduates.
So, increasingly graduation speeches might become a waste of time for everyone. I will, therefore, disappoint you since I will not rehash those “how to succeed” homilies here.
Quite frankly, I expected a near-empty hall for this event!For me particularly, what should a state governor at this moment in Nigeria (governors are largely the butt of many jokes) be telling fresh graduates?
Limited Edition Generation
Second, my generation of the 1960s,1970s and older ones constitute what I describe as the “Limited Edition Generation ” generation.
Someone noted that we are the last generation to listen to and take care of our parents and the first that are forced to listen to and even take care of our children until death.
So, I just wonder whether we should not reverse the roles: you do the talking while I do the listening?
Or can you endure the torture of my boring advisory?
I graduated 40 years ago in 1984
As I stand before you, I can feel some parallels between my own graduation and yours today.
Yes, I graduated 40 years ago in 1984, and I recall the hope and despair we all felt as we came from our various postings for the National Youths Service for the Convocation ceremony.
The military was groping in search of answers to Nigeria’s myriad and seemingly intractable social, political, and economic problems.
It was the year of severe austerity measures, with long queues for the so-called “essential commodities” (rice, salt, milk, vegetable oil, etc) as well as rationing of foreign exchange.
The era of NEPA, NITEL and SAP
The Nigerian Electric Power Authority (NEPA) was derisively described as meaning “Never Expect Power Always,” while the less than 200,000 available telephone lines were largely moribund.
The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) removed subsidies on students’ feeding in the universities, and the subsequent Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) came with all the SAP-related riots and protests.
ASUU strikes closed universities for months/years. That was the beginning of an era when jobs for university graduates could no longer be taken for granted.
Which Way Nigeria?
There was an acute scarcity of basics with rising inflation, unemployment, and poverty while the War Against Corruption and Indiscipline was launched. This was the year we all thought that Nigeria had fallen apart.
Sonny Okosun summed up the collective despair and hopelessness in his famous song entitled: “Which Way Nigeria?”
Please Google and listen to the song—40 years ago!Fast-forward to today, 40 years after. You are all graduating in 2024—the year that Nigeria finally summoned the courage to end decades of debilitating and destructive petrol subsidies as well as forex and electricity subsidies, with all the consequential shocks including, once again, rising headline and food inflation as well as poverty and unemployment.
Criminality Becomes The “ New Economy”
It is also the year of the big floods which have affected 34 states and displaced nearly two million Nigerians. Criminality has become the “new economy”—banditry, kidnapping and drug epidemic. Much of our public service is transactional rather than transformational, and it is increasingly becoming difficult for people to render service except it benefits them personally.
The quest for money as an end is deafening, and for a growing percentage of our youths, their motto in life is: “Get rich young or die trying.”
For many, it is increasingly difficult to maintain balance, especially in a culture where virtue has little currency.
The global megatrends are such that only those who have scalable skills and continuously innovate and adapt will thrive.
The United States has just elected Donald Trump as president with some trepidations and hopes for what it portends for the world. Soon, you will face some uncomfortable truths.
Your Dream Jobs Are Not There
For starters, your dream jobs are not there, and about 80% of you will not practise what you studied. It is scary and I am not sure how adequately the University has prepared you for survival in chaotic times.
As I draw the parallels between my time of graduation and yours, I am not sure whether to say congratulations or commiserations.
But what you make of the current situation depends on whether you see it as a challenge or an opportunity.
For me, Nigeria remains the Black man’s greatest opportunity. National Youth Service The next year–your one year of National Youth Service may be the year for re-setting.
You will meet new people; you will stumble on new ideas—good and bad; and you may even try some adventures.
Community Service
One day a week, you will have what we used to call a day for “community service.”
Make that day count! It might be your rehearsal for selfless public service. Start with Volunteerism: volunteer to serve at every opportunity.
Do something good for the benefit of society from which you do not expect to be paid. It is a pivotal year, your balcony moment, and you must make it count.
During my youth service at the then University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University, Ife), I attended all M.Sc classes in the Department of Economics—though I was not a registered student.
Perhaps, part of the impetus for me to resign from Coopers and Lybrand after five months to go back for post-graduate studies may have come from my NYSC experience.
My tailor in Abuja, Mr. Adekunle from Osun State, is a graduate of Geology from the University of Maiduguri.
He sold used clothes during his NYSC in Akwa Ibom and, from there, learned tailoring during the same service.
Today, he has more than 150 tailors, 30 graduates in Management, and other staff—all totalling over 200, working for him.I can cite over 100 similar examples. Thus, what happens in this one year of your ‘national service’ might determine whether Nigeria ends up as a half-empty or half-full glass for you.
Still, on your personal survival, let me add a little digression. Many of you probably only studied/read seriously while preparing for examinations, and believe that henceforth, the torture is over.
Bad News for You
I have bad news for you. Your bachelor’s degree (B.A.) might mean “Begin Again.”In today’s world, there is a connection between continuous learning and earning.
If you stop learning, you start decaying, or you can sum it up in a slogan: learn more to earn more! I have heard several of the richest people in the world brag about how many non-fiction books they read in a year.
I will not say more.As you venture into the uncertain world, you will need all the help you can get. You will need all the networks and partnerships you can get. Success in life is not just about what you know but even more so about whom you know.
As the saying goes, if you want to go fast, go alone, but if you want to go far, go together. So, you will need the help of others to get ahead.
“Anything” Cannot Take You “Anywhere”
Soon, you will start looking for jobs or other ‘help’ from people to jumpstart a new life.
For some decades, I always had young people approach me to help them find a job, and when you ask, ‘What do you want to do,’ a common answer was, “Anything.” Of course, “anything” cannot take you “anywhere” because as the saying goes, “if you don’t have a destination in mind, any road will take you there.”
So, my only tip to you on this occasion is to always seek intentionally to add value. Before you approach someone for help, there is a minimum investment/preparation you must make to be ready to be “helped.”
When you approach people, start with what value you will bring to the table—how you intend to ‘help them.’ This might sound counterintuitive. Paradoxically, that is also how you make money. Making money cannot be an objective; adding value is what makes money.
The Richest People in The World
Think of it for a moment. The richest people in the world (through enterprise, and not through rent or criminality) are those who set out to solve specific problems for society and money followed as a reward—naturally!. Think of the inventors, the software developers who set out to connect people socially (Facebook, Twitter, etc), industrialists, consultants, tailors, traders, or anyone seeking to create value for customers, and how money followed them consequently.
So, the next time you approach someone for help, start by telling them what you can also do for them, and you will see that they are more likely to listen to you than if you approach them for charity.
When You Are Applying for a Job
When you are going to apply for a job, spend time researching how you can help to improve the fortune of the company.
Instead of just “applying for a job,” write them a proposal on what you can offer, and you will see the difference.
Try it! Sorry, I veered off into advisory which I promised not to get into. Let me share some statistics that may jolt you to action.
Without a doubt, the first need of man is survival and safety. Maslow prioritized human needs as physiological needs (air, food, drink, shelter, clothing, sleep, and health), safety, love and belonging, esteem, and self-actualization.
Incomes Distribution
Again, the reality is that given Nigeria’s current income distribution, more than 60% of you may not go beyond satisfying the first need –physiological needs. When I was Governor of the Central Bank, we had a study that gave us a casual inference about the income distribution/inequality in Nigeria (beyond the Gini coefficient).
We discovered that 92% of the millions of depositors in Nigerian commercial banks had bank balances of N300,000 or less. But this 92% of depositors controlled about 7% of the total deposits, while the 8% that had over N300,000 controlled 93% of the total deposits.
I understand that a similar exercise was repeated several years later with a threshold of N500,000 and the distribution was largely unchanged.
Someone can crudely interpret this to mean that about 8% of the population controls 93% of the income, while 92% of the people control just 7% of income.
Crude as the statistics may seem but it tells a thousand stories and highlights the context of a society in which our new graduates must thrive and excel.
Unemployed or underemployed
I know many of you will already be casting and binding and praying that it is not your portion to end up among the 92% or among the many who may remain unemployed or underemployed for several years after your national service.
The point, however, is that if we all do not work to alter the meta-level architecture that produces such outcomes, much of our efforts at individual survival might be circumscribed.
My Core Message to YOU
This brings me to my core message to you: the current situation in Nigeria is not destiny. Everyone—I mean, everyone including you, the new graduates, can and must do something about it. Nation-building is too serious a business to be left to the politicians or public servants alone. A new social contract with basic socio-economic rights is possible.
Mission of Veritas University
Luckily, you are graduates of Veritas University—whose mission broadly interpreted is to mould new Nigerians that will create a new Nigeria. Let me bore you by reminding you of the Mission of your University, as boldly stated on the school’s website as follows:
“The mission of Veritas University is to provide its students with an integral and holistic formation that combines academic and professional training with physical, moral, spiritual, social and cultural formation together with the formation of Christian religious principles and the social Teachings of the Catholic Church…
Based on Christian inspiration and Christ’s sacrificial witness, the University shall promote authentic human and cultural development modelled on the person of Christ and shall champion the cause of justice and uprightness in society, work to empower the weak and the marginalized and promote dialogue and collaboration in human relationships at various levels and among various cultures and religions…..
Thus, graduates from Veritas University, Abuja, after successfully completing their studies, should be able to use the knowledge for the upliftment of themselves and the Nigerian society…
”Wow! The public-purpose mission of your university is a bold statement of progressive social thought. Combine the Catholic Social Teachings with Rick Warren’s book “The Purpose Driven Life” and laced with Chapter Two of the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria (“Fundamental Objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy”), and you have a robust Progressive ideology and manifesto.
I pray that these documents can be mandatory readings in one of the ‘General Studies’ courses at your university. If your students/Nigerians take them as their compass in pursuit of private and public good, a new Nigeria will indeed be on the way.
These documents motivate us to a life driven by purpose above self and remind us that to serve is to live. Selfless public service is the greatest form of philanthropy.
I am in love with pragmatic progressivism, particularly Chapter Two of our Constitution, which provides a compass to a competitive yet humane and compassionate society where no one is left behind. It seeks to establish the social contract between the State and the citizens, although this contract is adjudged non-justiciable.
Making much of the aspirational contents of Chapter Two of the Constitution justiciable will create a new generation of Nigerians who feel a great debt of gratitude and, therefore, are fired by an intense sense of nationalism/patriotism to want to “give back to society.”
Increasingly, I meet young people who argue that they do not feel any sense of obligation/duty to the country.
They do not feel that the country has invested in them to demand patriotism and duty to the country. Unlike my generation, the nation did not offer them qualitative and tuition-free education at all levels. Why, after pulling themselves by their own bootstraps, should they care for Nigeria that has not cared for them? Sometimes it is difficult to respond appropriately without bringing God into the conversation.
Often, my answer is to remind everyone that if God, in His infinite wisdom, decided to make us Nigerians, there must be a purpose—and that purpose must be for us to contribute to His creation by leaving the country better than we met it. I must admit that this Homily, ennobling as it sounds, is not enough.
We must collectively do something to give every Nigerian a stake in the future of the country. Nigeria is undergoing a fundamental and disruptive reset. Hopefully, we have ended the debilitating scam called fuel subsidy as well as the forex and electricity subsidies. We have entered a “muddling-through” phase which we must navigate carefully. Soon we must migrate from the destructive subsidies that benefitted largely the urban elite to a productive social contract that creates opportunity for all.
Take education for example. I am a beneficiary of tuition-free, qualitative primary, secondary and university education in public schools.
We even had subsidized meals at the public University until the government could no longer afford them.
If there was nothing else that the military regimes used our first and second oil booms for, at least I can attest to their investment in education.
My generation will remain grateful, and for some of us, much of our life, especially in public service, is payback time.
As we muddle through the shocks occasioned by the needed disruptive changes, we must sit and craft a pragmatic New Deal for Nigeria plus an emergency national infrastructure plan akin to the U.S. Marshall Plan for Europe after the Second World War.
In the 21st and 22nd centuries driven by digitalization, only societies that intentionally mine their human capital will triumph.
A New Deal for the U.S. was a “series of programs, public works projects, financial reforms, and regulations enacted by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in the U.S. between 1933 and 1938 to rescue the U.S. from the Great Depression”.
Some elements of the New Deal, such as the Minimum Wage legislation, Draft Tax Reform Bill, planned cash transfers, etc, as well as the audacious Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and Lagos-Skoto highway, are positive signs.
This moment calls for historic coordination between the federal and state governments to agree on the critical elements of the augmented New Deal and Marshall Plan as well as their implementation to deliver outcomes within the shortest possible time. A key issue will be the ‘national plan’ for the deployment of the apparent “fiscal/subsidy windfall.”
I say “apparent” windfall because much of the nominal increase in fiscal revenues is largely a money illusion.
In both US dollar terms and real purchasing power terms, much of the current revenue windfall is still far lower than in previous years.
For example, a state that received N5 billion or US$43.4 million as monthly FAAC allocation in 2007/8 when the exchange rate was N118 to the dollar and a bag of cement sold for a few hundred Naira would need to receive at least N77 billion a month at current exchange rate and prices to be restored to its 2007/8 position.
Infrastructure for the 21st and 22nd Centuries
But the state does not get even a third of such. Fixing the oil output will be a critical game changer in the short to medium term.
However minuscule or even non-existent the windfall in real terms, the federation must be seen to intentionally execute a new Deal that pragmatically coheres with our peculiar federalism while urgently addressing the needs of the people.
Besides the humongous investment to build infrastructure for the 21st century, we urgently need to prioritize our national investment in human capital— to transform our abundant human resources into productive capital.
In the 21st and 22nd centuries driven by digitalization, only societies that intentionally mine their human capital will triumph.
Deploying our depleting natural resources to invest in the bridge to the future—human capital—will not only give our teeming population a stake in society but also secure their future.
As a country, we must aim to remember this time in our history as the moment when we dared to remove the negative subsidies but deployed a part of the windfall to benefit our children and youths—via their education and health.
At the minimum, we should set a national target to bring out-of-school children to zero within 5-8 years and qualitative tuition-free secondary education to all Nigerian children within 10 years while mainstreaming selected centres of excellence for the exportable labour force.
As pragmatic progressives, we are trying the experiment in Anambra State.
Within our two and half years in office, we have kept our eyes on creating this future we desire.
Besides the historically unprecedented investment in transport networks especially to communities/local governments that never saw tarred roads/bridges/flyovers, aggressive urban regeneration, state-wide pipe-borne water revolution, three new cities including an entertainment/leisure city (fun-city) and an industrial city, breaking the 33-year old jinx of giving Anambra a government house/governor’s lodge, reforming and strengthening the public service, massive investment in security, law and order; etc, we have prioritized human capital development as our beacon to the future. We aim for human capital that is productive at home and exportable abroad.
There is an ongoing infrastructure revolution in our public hospitals—building/modernizing and equipping 326 primary health centres in 326 wards in the state; remodelled and equipping three general hospitals and completing/equipping five new general hospitals; pioneering telemedicine; building best-in-class trauma centre in our tertiary hospital as well as a world-class college of nursing sciences, etc.
Our health policy offers free antenatal services (with drugs) as well as free delivery (including CS surgeries) to pregnant women in all public hospitals. So far over 60,000 women have benefitted and with near zero mortality rate.
On education, besides the massive infrastructure upgrade of primary and secondary schools (with some migrating to smart education), we set out to end the era of schools without teachers by employing 8,115 new teachers.
We now have free education—free of tuition and all levies—in all public primary and secondary schools in Anambra.
We also subsidize Mission primary and secondary schools by posting thousands of government teachers to their schools, costing the government over N1.3 billion per month as a subsidy them. We also make grants to them as well as grants to Mission tertiary institutions.
Within the first nine months of the programme, enrolment in public schools increased by 18.7% and out-of-school children dropped to 2.9% — the lowest in Nigeria among the thirty-six states and FCT. Currently, we are aiming for zero out-of-school children.
One Youth, 2Skills Programme
Our investment in youths, with our innovative ‘One Youth, 2Skills Programme’— which the FGN has now adapted into the national curricula, has created over 5,000 new entrepreneurs, with an additional 8,300 soon to complete their apprenticeship and will be empowered to become an entrepreneur.
Our innovation district— our own Silicon Valley—aims to create a One Million digital tribe army, and so far, tens of thousands have received digital training including Coding skills.
Many are already employed in the digital space. We are very intentional in this drive to empower the next generation to take charge of their lives and move Nigeria forward.
Our goal is to break the dynasties of poverty by making education the ladder of opportunity for the poor to break the vicious circle.
When I was growing up, the children of the rich and the poor attended the same school and were taught by the same teacher. If the children of the poor were brilliant, they had a chance to do better than the children of the rich.
Today, not anymore! The children of the rich now attend expensive and well-resourced private schools while the children of the poor, especially the poorest of the poor attend poorly resourced public/community schools.
With poor learning outcomes, these children of the poor end up with no skills/opportunities and end up poor while their own children end the same way. Poverty, therefore, becomes a dynasty.
All of us must intentionally work to break this vicious cycle. A new national social contract can intentionally eliminate illiteracy and upscale the labour force within a generation. Yes, it is possible!
The year 2050 Expectations
By 2050, it is expected that there will be more than 400 million Nigerians and by the end of this century, Nigeria will be the third most populated country in the world after India and China.
With an ageing Europe and North America, Nigeria must opportunistically prepare to become the number one supplier of labour to the rest of the world.
Probably by then, the export of labour will be Nigeria’s largest source of export earnings. So, the Nigerian state must deliberately prioritize and invest in the people—especially their health and education.
We may have to rethink the current structure and model of education in the country. We must now conclude.
The governing elite has a state of emergency in our hands, and we must not fail the country. Every citizen is called to duty. God did not make a mistake in making us Nigerians.
To our young graduates, Veritas University has imbued you with knowledge, skills, and social thought to mobilize you for the public good. The future you seek is in your palms, and only those who plan can control the future.
As I look into your eyes, I can see hope. Yes, Nigeria may not have offered you much, but in fulfilment of your divine purpose on earth, you will be expected to give more than you have received.
I therefore urge you all to show up and participate in shaping the destiny of this nation.
We are Nigerians and this country belongs to all of us. We are all birds of passage but each of us must account to our Creator what we did while at our pilgrim post here on earth.
As I look around, I do not see many of the doyens of Nigeria’s first, second and even third republics.
Let no one tell you that you are the leaders of tomorrow.
That tomorrow is here: take it and shape it so that Nigeria can realize its manifest destiny as the greatest Black power and the leader in the 22nd century.
May your road be rough, and let us get it done, together!
Opinions
APC And Its Presidential Primary Result, By Emeka Monye
Democracy is not just about winning. It is about winning in a way that the country can recognize as its own.
Fela’s “Government Magic”
Fela Anikulapo-Kuti had a word for it: “Government Magic.”
In the track, the Afrobeat pioneer captured a Nigerian political tradition that predates the Fourth Republic—the sudden transformation of figures, narratives, and outcomes to fit the ambitions of those in power.
He was singing about the 1979 and 1983 elections, but the chorus feels uncomfortably familiar today. The instruments have changed. The stage is bigger.
Yet the choreography of doubt around election results remains.
The political class, as Fela dissected in song after song, has always understood the value of controlling the story before, during, and after the polls.
The Goal
The goal is not just to win, but to win in a way that makes dissent look irrational. When the numbers bend to serve whims and caprices, the public’s faith in the process bends with them.
That is why the credibility of internal party primaries matters. They are rehearsals for the national performance. If the rehearsal collapses into farce, the main show risks losing its audience.
Striking Figure
The recent All Progressives Congress presidential primary result has reignited that old conversation.
According to reports circulating from the party, President Bola Tinubu emerged as the APC candidate for the 2027 presidential election with a tally exceeding 10 million votes.
On its face, the figure is striking. It is also the source of the current controversy. Across social media, videos and screenshots purporting to show the counting process have fueled questions about the arithmetic behind the result.
The clips show delegates and officials tallying votes in what appears to be a linear, one-by-one sequence.
Then, without a visible change in method or volume, the totals jump to figures in the tens of thousands.That kind of progression violates basic expectations of how counting works.
Mechanics of counting
Arithmetic progression moves step by step: one, two, three, four. What people observed looked closer to geometric progression—small, manageable numbers suddenly leaping into magnitudes that do not match the visible process.
To the average voter watching at home, it does not read as a technical anomaly. It reads as a sleight of hand. And in politics, perception is often as consequential as procedure.
The problem is not the ambition of a large turnout. A party primary with millions of participants is plausible if the structure supports it.
The problem is the disconnect between what was seen and what was announced. When the mechanics of counting defy standard arithmetic, the burden falls on the party to explain the method.
Was this an aggregation of state-level results? Were multiple counting centers involved? Was there a digital component that was not visible in the clips? Without that context, the silence becomes an explanation in itself, and not a reassuring one.
Why it matters
This matters because the signal from a party primary extends beyond the party. It sets a tone for the general election that follows.
If internal contests normalize questionable tallies, it becomes harder to draw a line at the national level.
It erodes the cultural expectation that numbers should add up, that observers should be able to follow the process, and that the loser should be able to concede without feeling gaslit.
Once that expectation erodes, every subsequent election starts from a deficit of trust.
Nigeria’s elections history
Nigeria’s history with elections makes this sensitivity unavoidable.
Fela’s “Government Magic” resonated in the 1980s precisely because voters had watched results shift between the polling unit and the collation center.
The trauma of that era did not disappear because new technology arrived. It evolved.
Today, the magic happens in parallel—on the field and on timelines. A video can travel faster than a press statement. A 30-second clip can frame a narrative that a 10-page report cannot undo.
In that environment, transparency is not a luxury. It is risk management.The APC’s position as the ruling party increases the stakes.
When the party in power announces results that strain credibility, the opposition, civil society, and international observers all take note. It feeds into a broader narrative about democratic backsliding that Nigeria has been working to resist.
It also gives ammunition to those who argue that elections are theater and that the outcome is decided long before voters mark a ballot. That is a dangerous argument to validate, even unintentionally.
Generational dimension
There is also a generational dimension. The younger voters who make up a growing share of the electorate are digital natives.
They expect processes to be visible, verifiable, and timestamped.
They are not satisfied with appeals to tradition or authority when the data does not align.
For them, a counting process that leaps from single digits to five figures without an explanation looks less like “strategy” and more like contempt for their intelligence.
That is not a base you want to alienate before a general election. None of this is to say that the APC intended to undermine its own credibility.
Party primaries are complex, high-pressure events.
Aggregating results from 36 states and the FCT, coordinating delegates, managing security, and communicating in real time is not simple.
Mistakes happen. Miscommunications happen. But the response to those mistakes determines whether they become scandals.
A prompt, detailed breakdown of how the 10 million figure was reached—with state-by-state tallies, observer sign-off, and a clear explanation of the counting method—would close the loop. Silence and defensiveness keep it open.
When the party in power announces results that strain credibility, the opposition, civil society, and international observers all take note. It feeds into a broader narrative about democratic backsliding that Nigeria has been working to resist.
The political class would do well to remember that legitimacy is a renewable resource, but only if you invest in it. Every election cycle offers a chance to rebuild trust or deplete it further.
The current moment is a test. If the APC can demonstrate that its primary was both massive and methodical, it strengthens the case for its own mandate.
If it cannot, it hands its opponents a narrative that will outlast the 2027 campaign.Beyond the APC, the broader lesson is for all parties.
The era where results could be announced and accepted without explanation is over.
The public has access to more information, more cameras, and more ways to compare what was said with what was seen. That is not a problem to be managed through messaging. It is a reality to be designed for.
That means building primaries and elections around verifiable processes: clear protocols, independent observation, real-time data release, and audit trails that can withstand public scrutiny.
Leadership also requires admitting when the process has gaps.
A leader cannot succeed without a good support team, but that team must include people willing to say, “This does not look right, and we need to fix it.”
The younger generation watching these events is not asking for perfection.They are asking for honesty. They are asking for a system that respects arithmetic and respects them.
Giving them space in leadership means giving them a process they can believe in, even when they lose.
The danger of ignoring this is not abstract. When vote counting looks arbitrary, voter turnout suffers.
When turnout suffers, governance suffers. When governance suffers, the cycle of disillusionment deepens.
Nigeria cannot afford another decade where elections are seen as rituals rather than decisions.
The country’s challenges—security, economy, education, healthcare—require a public that believes its vote can influence who makes those decisions.
Fela’s critique was not about cynicism. It was about accountability. He held up a mirror to power and asked it to recognize itself. That is still the task.
If the APC’s primary result was legitimate, prove it with the kind of transparency that makes “Government Magic” impossible. If there were errors, correct them publicly and show how the process will change. That is how you turn a moment of doubt into a foundation for trust.
2027 election
The 2027 election will not be decided on social media. But the climate in which it is contested is being shaped there now.
Every unexplained anomaly, every dismissive response, every jump from one to ten thousand without a visible step in between, adds weight to the narrative that the game is rigged.
And once that narrative takes hold, even a perfectly conducted election struggles to overcome it.
The political class has been called upon to ensure that their supporters do not cause mayhem as the country heads for the polls.
That responsibility starts long before Election Day. It starts with how parties conduct their own affairs, how they count their own votes, and how they explain their own results.
Democracy is not just about winning. It is about winning in a way that the country can recognize as its own.
Nigeria needs more people of conscience in positions where they can influence process, not just outcomes. People who understand that a clean process is the best defense against a dirty result.
People who are willing to give the younger generation not just a seat at the table, but a table that is built on rules everyone can see and follow.
If the APC wants its 2027 candidacy to be judged on policy, record, and vision, it must first secure the legitimacy of the path that produced it.
That is not a favor to the opposition. It is a service to the country. Because in the end, the only magic that sustains democracy is the ordinary, unglamorous work of making the numbers add up—and showing your work while you do it.
• Emeka Monye Is A Journalist
Opinions
PAYE Tax, Stakeholder Concern and Country Development, By Tony Monye
In point of fact, Lagos State is beyond a state. And, that is written without any sense of exaggeration. Lagos is more or less a country. The state can be compared to the other countries in Africa, especially along the continent’s west coast. Take a look at the state’s GDP and compare to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Togo’s figures.
The state’s economic indices completely outclass theirs while competing favourably with even Ghana or Cote D’Ivoire’s. Analogously, the Federal Capital Territory – (not yet recognised as a state) – Abuja – perhaps, with no one noticing – is rapidly morphing, racing up the path that shaped the Lagos’ development trajectory.
The end outcome is for time to reveal. And, it surely will. Comparatively, the other thirty-five states in the Nigerian federation are less than what one would call a state in terms of revenue generation, infrastructural presence and the other state-determinant economics and features, as they are straddled by very weak eco-financial profiles.
In fact, their Treasuries are often said to be in chaos, which I think should be some wake-up call to all their stakeholders. For instance, benchmarking the VAT and IGR (largely driven by consumption and the spate of economic engagements) numbers across the states in Nigeria presents another vivid revelation of immense size.
The disparity between Lagos and Abuja’s VAT and IGR figures, on the one hand and the other 35-states’ is frankly too dizzying for comfort and should raise some concern. Some (constitutional – largely fiscal) arrangements must have led to this.
Therefore, truly concerned elected political office-holders and economic planners should know it’s time they spoke up. Their continued silence rewards no one, not even the present benefitting states, especially in the long range.
The gap also does not speak in favour of country-wide development, especially when it negates the exact arrangements the nation badly and urgently needs.
Of many of the factors driving the unwholesome developmental optics, the structure of the country’s tax (particularly the PAYE system – how this is shared) can be considered to be at the heart of this misnomer.
Nigeria, Stakeholder Concerns and Taxes
Interestingly, Nigeria is a federation of states. Our federating structure is like no other in the world. How most of its holding pillars are defined are not evolving. They are stuck in their original letters, negatively impacting real development.
The Nigerian constitution recognises the clearly inflexible dichotomy between state of origin and state of residence for various reasons. There is also an aspect of the Nigerian state that is often de-emphasised in discourses even though it’s an integral part of its politico-administrative architecture – the local government.
Every economically-engaged Nigeria (especially in the formal sector) is at least a stakeholder in the three politico-administrative jurisdictions of state of residence, state and local government of origin. But of all the three, allegiance is most tightly expressed in one’s state of origin.
How deeply true is this when the PAYE-tax structure favours the state of residence while neglecting his supposed allegiance to his state of origin?
To help the government at each of the levels – federal, state and local – meet with their responsibilities and duties, every working/ earning adult is, amongst others, expected to be tax-responsible as a citizen-stakeholder.
Nigeria has adopted the PAYE-tax structure for its workers. Don’t we know that tax is a sine qua non for development? The existing PAYE-tax architecture is defective. It directs that PAYE-tax should be on the basis of the state of residence (where the typical worker is domiciled).
It does not take into consideration the many ‘fates’ of the Nigerian worker outside his state of origin and his stakeholder responsibility bent. In other words, the PAYE-tax structure demands him to be tax-responsible to a state where he is more or less regarded as a ‘stranger’.
That way, he is therefore tax-irresponsible to his state and local government area of origin, where according to the Nigerian constitution he also has some stakes.
The drawbacks of this long-standing arrangement are so easily seen and they are enormous, reflecting in the development hiatus between the two (of Lagos and Abuja) and the rest.
The development gap also comes with its socio-economic challenges if we think in terms of migration. On the other hand, a critical evaluation will also reveal that, like some have argued, Lagos and Abuja’s development is at the price being paid by the other 35-states.
For instance, a Deltan living and working in Abuja can be tax-responsible to the FCT while being tax-irresponsible to Delta State – where he is also a stakeholder (isn’t it wrong to be a stakeholder only on paper?). How this insalubrious tilt has remained the case for too long is what I do not know.
The existing PAYE-tax arrangement completely turns its back on many of our highly engraved and pronounced peculiarities as a nation, which should not be.
A Fairer PAYE-TAX Structure for Nigeria
It is time everyone – the politicians and economic planners – sat at the roundtable to develop a new and more equitable PAYE-tax sharing arrangement, which must take into reckoning our many oddities as a nation.
Furthermore, it must also align with the stakeholder leanings of the average Nigerian worker, which in the final argument will benefit country-wide development.
Argue against this if you can. A stitch, like they say, can actually stop the necessary need for nine.
Tony Monye Publisher
The TMBC Business
Opinions
Xenophobia: Do South Africa’s Attacks Give Credence to Botha’s Assertion?
By Emeka Monye
In 1988, as international pressure against apartheid reached a crescendo, South Africa’s then State President Pieter Willem Botha allegedly declared that Black Africans lacked the capacity to govern themselves.
The statement, widely circulated but never verified in an official transcript, was stark: “Black people cannot rule themselves because they don’t have the brain and mental capacity to govern a society.
Give them guns, they would kill themselves; give them power, they will steal all the government money; give them independence and democracy, they will use it to promote tribalism, ethnicity, bigotry, hatred, killings and wars.”
A longer version of an alleged 1985 speech described Black people as “a symbol of poverty, mental inferiority, laziness and emotional incompetence.”
Botha was the architect of “reform apartheid” — a policy that eased some racial restrictions while entrenching white minority rule. He legalized interracial marriage, relaxed the Group Areas Act, and granted limited political rights to Coloured and Indian South Africans.
But he drew the line at Black majority rule, refusing to negotiate with the African National Congress or release Nelson Mandela for most of his tenure.
His words, whether authentic or apocryphal, reflected the ideological core of apartheid: that white minority rule was necessary because Black Africans were incapable of self-governance.
More than three decades after apartheid ended and South Africa became a democracy, that assertion has resurfaced in public discourse — not from white supremacists, but from some Africans reacting to a painful reality: the periodic eruption of xenophobic violence against fellow Africans in South Africa.
Since 2008, South Africa has witnessed repeated waves of attacks on African migrants. Shops owned by Nigerians, Somalis, Zimbabweans, and Mozambicans have been looted and burned. Foreign nationals have been beaten, killed, and displaced from townships.
In September 2019, mobs targeted foreign-owned businesses in Johannesburg and Pretoria, forcing hundreds to flee. In 2021 and again in 2023, similar violence flared in Durban and Gauteng, often justified by perpetrators as a response to unemployment and crime.
The victims are not Europeans or Asians. They are Africans — fellow members of the African Union, fellow signatories to the African Continental Free Trade Area, fellow citizens of a continent that preaches Pan-African solidarity.
The irony is bitter. A country that itself endured decades of racial exclusion now finds sections of its population directing similar exclusion toward other Black Africans.
This is the context in which Botha’s alleged statement is being recalled. For some commentators, the attacks are not just criminal acts.
They are seen as evidence of a deeper dysfunction — a failure of governance, social cohesion, and civic responsibility that extends beyond South Africa’s borders and into the broader African experience.
Africa is the world’s youngest continent, with 60 percent of its population under 25. It is also the richest in natural resources, holding 30 percent of the world’s mineral reserves and 65 percent of its arable land.
Yet it remains the least developed continent on nearly every index — from GDP per capita to healthcare, education, and infrastructure.
The reasons are complex and historical. Colonialism dismantled indigenous governance structures, imposed arbitrary borders, and created extractive economies designed to serve European powers.
Post-independence, many African states inherited weak institutions and were immediately confronted with Cold War proxy conflicts, debt burdens, and the challenge of nation-building across diverse ethnic groups.
The result has been a pattern of instability: civil wars in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, and Sudan. Military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea. Election rigging, corruption, and weak rule of law in numerous countries. Banditry and insurgency in the Sahel and North-East Nigeria.
These are not abstract problems. They have consequences — for economic development, for migration, and for the way Africans are perceived both at home and abroad.
South Africa has not been immune. Despite its advanced infrastructure and democratic institutions, it struggles with inequality, unemployment hovering above 30 percent, and high levels of violent crime. In this environment, foreign nationals often become scapegoats.
They are accused of taking jobs, running informal businesses without permits, and contributing to crime. The narrative is familiar: when institutions fail to deliver economic opportunity, blame is shifted to the outsider.
The core of Botha’s argument — and the uncomfortable question it raises today — is about institutions. Governance is not just about holding elections. It is about building systems that protect property rights, enforce contracts, deliver public services, and hold leaders accountable.
It is about a culture where the rule of law supersedes tribal loyalty, where constitutional authority is respected, and where citizens feel safe and included.
In many African countries, those institutions remain weak. Courts are slow or compromised. Police are under-resourced and often seen as predatory. Civil service is politicized. Corruption is normalized. When the state fails to provide security and economic opportunity, informal power structures — ethnic militias, vigilante groups, criminal gangs — fill the vacuum.
South Africa’s xenophobic attacks reveal the same deficit. The state has been slow to prosecute perpetrators. Political leaders have at times used anti-foreigner rhetoric for political gain.
Communities feel abandoned by law enforcement and take justice into their own hands. The result is a breakdown of social order that mirrors the instability seen in other parts of the continent.
To raise this question is not to endorse Botha’s racism. His worldview was rooted in white supremacy and designed to justify domination. History has disproven him in the most fundamental way: Black Africans have governed themselves since independence, building nations, universities, businesses, and cultural institutions.
Countries like Botswana, Rwanda, Ghana, and Mauritius have shown that stable governance and economic growth are possible in an African context.
But it is also true that self-governance has not delivered the prosperity and unity that early independence leaders like Kwame Nkrumah, Julius Nyerere, and Patrice Lumumba envisioned. Instead, many African states remain trapped in cycles of conflict and underdevelopment. The African Union’s Agenda 2063 speaks of a “peaceful and prosperous Africa,” but the reality on the ground often falls short.
The xenophobic attacks in South Africa force a difficult conversation. If Africans cannot protect other Africans within their own borders, what does that say about the project of African unity? If economic competition between Africans leads to violence rather than cooperation, how can the continent achieve meaningful integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area?
Botha’s assertion was meant to deny Africans agency. The proper response is not to accept it, but to confront the failures that give it superficial resonance.
That means African governments must do more to strengthen institutions, protect migrants, and address the economic grievances that fuel xenophobia.
It means civil society must challenge hate speech and promote a culture of tolerance. It means citizens must hold leaders accountable for delivering governance that works.
It also means rejecting the temptation to generalize. South Africa’s attacks do not represent all South Africans. Many South Africans have condemned the violence, sheltered foreign nationals, and called for solidarity.
Similarly, Africa’s governance challenges do not define all 54 countries on the continent. There are islands of stability and progress that offer a counter-narrative.
The real danger is silence — the refusal to acknowledge that something is broken. Africa cannot afford to normalize dysfunction or to dismiss criticism as neo-colonialism. Self-determination comes with responsibility: the responsibility to build societies that are just, safe, and prosperous for all who live within them, regardless of nationality.
Pieter Willem Botha’s words were born out of prejudice and intended to perpetuate oppression. They should be rejected for what they are — a justification for racial exclusion. Yet the recurring xenophobic violence in South Africa, and the broader governance challenges across Africa, demand honest reflection.
The path forward lies not in proving Botha right, but in proving him wrong through action. That means building institutions that work, economies that create opportunity, and societies that uphold the dignity of every person — African or otherwise. Until then, the question of Africa’s capacity to govern itself will remain open, not because of race, but because of the unfinished work of state-building.
Africa’s renaissance will not come from denying its problems. It will come from facing them, learning from them, and resolving to do better. That is the only answer worthy of the continent’s future.
Emeka Monye Is A Journalist
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