•Faith Birol

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Thursday that the oil markets could soon enter a “red zone” as global stocks deplete and as demand picks up during the summer travel season.

Birol’s comments came during a Chatham House session on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and global energy security.

Birol said that the single most important solution to the Iran war energy shock is a full and unconditional reopening of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

” If it fails to reopen and no new oil is coming online from the Middle East, an ongoing drawdown in global stockpiles combined with an uptick in demand during the summer travel season means oil markets “may be entering the red zone in July or August,” Birol said, without elaborating further.

The IEA has previously said the global market is facing the most severe disruption in its history. That’s despite, Birol said, the market having benefitted from being in the “fortunate” position of entering the crisis with a surplus to help absorb the shock. These stocks, however, are now eroding, Birol said.

Typically, roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping traffic has virtually halted since U.S. and Israeli-led strikes against Iran started on Feb. 28.

The IEA chief said the “biggest pain of this crisis will be felt in developing Asia and Africa,” adding that he was just as concerned about the impact of the Iran war on global food security as he was on energy security.

The Chairman of First HoldCo, Femi Otedola, said on Wednesday “From on a personal note, I’ve appealed to him (Aliko Dangote to allocate to me shares worth $100 million private placement, ahead of the Refinery’s initial public offer.”

“That’s one of the reasons I sold my stake in Geregu plant to come and invest my proceeds in the IPO of Dangote refinery.”

Otedola told journalists when he led top executives of First HoldCo on a tour of the refinery and the fertiliser plans in the Lekki free trade zone area.

The team also visited key project sites such as the jetty, a facility built by Dangote industries to receive large vessels.

The private placement is the latest announcement in the refinery’s Initial Public Offering plan, IPO expected later in the year.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.5 per cent, maintaining the current stance after its two-day meeting that ended on Wednesday, May 20, 2026.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso announced the decision, noting that the committee voted unanimously to hold all key parameters unchanged. The asymmetric corridor around the MPR remains at +500/-450 basis points, the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) stays at 45 per cent for commercial banks and 16 per cent for merchant banks, while the liquidity ratio is retained at 30 per cent.

The hold comes as headline inflation rose for a second consecutive month to 15.69 per cent in April 2026, up from previous levels, driven largely by food inflation at 16.06 per cent and higher transportation costs. Cardoso emphasised the need for a cautious and vigilant approach to anchor inflation expectations and safeguard macroeconomic stability.

This decision aligns with analysts’ expectations ahead of the 305th MPC meeting and follows the first rate cut in years implemented in February 2026, when the MPR was reduced by 50 basis points to the current 26.5 per cent.

The CBN Governor highlighted ongoing reforms, exchange rate stability, and efforts to improve food supply as factors supporting the disinflation process, even as global and domestic risks persist. The next MPC meeting is expected in July.

The retention signals the apex bank’s priority on taming inflation while monitoring the impact of previous policy actions on the broader economy.