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Economists Predict Positive Impact of Naira Appreciation on Inflation and Import Prices

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Nigerian economists are optimistic that the recent appreciation of the Naira against the U.S. dollar, if sustained, could significantly reduce the cost of imported goods and curb the country’s headline inflation, which stood at 33.88% in October 2024.

Gbolade Idakolo, Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, and Prof. Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University, Ibadan, shared these insights on Monday.

The Naira’s exchange rate improved to N1,538.50 per dollar on December 9, 2024, from N1,740 a month earlier. This represents a gain of N201.50 in the official market, despite slight fluctuations in rates at the start of the week.

This progress follows the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) introduction of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), aimed at fostering transparency and reducing market distortions. The platform has reportedly curbed speculative trading in the parallel market, bolstering confidence in the Naira’s stability.

Key Perspectives on the Naira’s Strengthening

Gbolade Idakolo described EFEMS as a “game changer” for its transparency and effectiveness in unifying forex bidding platforms. He emphasized that the system had diminished speculative activities in the parallel market, leading to a stronger Naira.

He highlighted the positive implications for importers, noting that the reduction in import duty exchange rates would decrease clearing costs, which are a significant factor in determining the prices of imported goods.

“The recent drop in exchange rates for import duties is a step in the right direction. Lower clearing charges will lead to reduced prices for imported goods, benefiting consumers,” Idakolo stated.

However, he urged the CBN to maintain strict regulatory oversight of banks, Bureau De Change operators, and other market players to ensure the sustainability of the gains.

Prof. Godwin Oyedokun attributed the Naira’s appreciation to increased FX inflows, reduced dollar demand, and strategic CBN interventions. He agreed that lower exchange rates for import duties could indirectly lower prices of imported goods, provided importers pass on the savings to consumers.

However, Oyedokun cautioned that several factors could limit the impact of the Naira’s appreciation on imported goods, including:

  • Global supply chain disruptions that may inflate costs.
  • Domestic economic conditions, such as inflation and government policies.
  • Importer behavior, as some importers might prioritize profit margins over price reductions.

To sustain the Naira’s strength, he advised the CBN to continue promoting macroeconomic stability, attracting foreign investment, and addressing structural issues like corruption, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure.

“While the recent Naira appreciation is encouraging, it may be temporary. Strategic and consistent interventions by the CBN will be crucial to sustaining this progress,” Oyedokun concluded.

Outlook

The economists agree that the Naira’s appreciation offers an opportunity to alleviate inflationary pressures, particularly in import-dependent sectors. However, sustained gains will require consistent policy measures and vigilance from the CBN to ensure long-term economic stability.

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Business

Elumelu shares inspiring story of his beginning as a “young, hungry sales rep”

Elumelu urged people, particularly those building their careers and businesses, to remain consistent and committed to learning. “Keep showing up. Keep learning. Keep executing,” he said.

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Businessman and philanthropist Tony Elumelu has shared a picture of his old business card from his early days as a photocopier salesman, recalling the lessons that shaped his approach to business and made him resilient.

Elumelu shared the photograph on his X handle on Thursday, saying he stumbled upon the card and was reminded of his days as a “young, hungry sales rep.”

The old card identifies Elumelu as a Sales Executive with Precissa Sales Limited, with the company’s address listed as Bode Thomas Street, Surulere, Lagos.

Reflecting on the period, Elumelu said the experience taught him “the fundamentals of resilience, negotiation, and grit,” lessons he said have continued to influence how he approaches business and engages with customers.

He wrote: “It’s also a reminder that who you become tomorrow is often shaped by the foundation you lay today; the discipline, hard work, and consistency you put in when no one is watching.”

Elumelu urged people, particularly those building their careers and businesses, to remain consistent and committed to learning. “Keep showing up. Keep learning. Keep executing,” he said.

He ended the post with a light-hearted reference to the details on the old card, saying: “As for the phone number and address on the card? Long gone 😂”

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Business

Brent Holds Above $101bp

Iran said it was ready for a more intense conflict, vowing to resist the US naval blockade and warning that it would intensify its attacks if American forces continued strikes on Iranian territory.

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Brent crude traded around $101 per barrel on Thursday, hovering at its highest level since May as the intensifying conflict between the US and Iran raised concerns over further disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East.

Iran said it was ready for a more intense conflict, vowing to resist the US naval blockade and warning that it would intensify its attacks if American forces continued strikes on Iranian territory.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump predicted that the conflict would not end until after the November midterm elections and said significant relief in gasoline prices was unlikely before then, signaling limited prospects for near-term de-escalation. 

Hostilities intensified over the past week following roughly a month of relative calm, with both sides stepping up attacks.

The conflict broadened after Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked several energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, prompting a temporary suspension of some operations.

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Business

Takeaways From CIBN 19th Annual Banking and Finance Conference

The large capital raised by banks during the recapitalisation exercise indicated the depth of capital available locally.

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By Ochefa


The Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) held its 19th Annual Banking and Finance Conference in Abuja, yesterday.


Themed , “Building a Resilient Economy in an Era of Disruptions: Strategic Imperatives for the Banking and Financial Services Industry,” the conference brought together stakeholders from the banking industry, the World Bank, government officials including economists , business leaders and policy makers.

” The ultimate test of Nigeria’s economic reforms should be their impact on households, businesses and the daily lives of ordinary Nigerians.”


Here are the key points from the discussions:


Dr. Dele Alabi, President and Chairman of Council of CIBN:
•The ultimate test of Nigeria’s economic reforms should be their impact on households, businesses and the daily lives of ordinary Nigerians. Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic indicators will amount to little if they failed to translate into lower living costs, more jobs, higher incomes and better living standards for citizens.
“Macroeconomic progress must, therefore, be felt at the micro level in households, small businesses and the daily lives of ordinary Nigerians. Our task is to build systems that learn, adapt and emerge stronger.”


Lead Private Sector Development Specialist at the World Bank’s Nigeria Office, Ms Bertine Kamphuis:
Credit to Nigeria’s private sector remain inadequate. She urged banks to channel more financing to sectors with the greatest potential to create jobs, particularly agriculture, manufacturing and MSMEs. According to her, with between three and four million young Nigerians entering the labour market every year, expanding access to productive credit has become imperative.”


Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele:
“Strong bank profits alone are no longer sufficient; financial institutions must contribute more directly to economic growth and the welfare of Nigerians.
“For years, we have measured financial institutions by balance-sheet growth, profitability and shareholder returns. These remain important. But we must increasingly ask: what is the financial system doing for the real economy?
A resilient banking system cannot exist indefinitely where businesses cannot obtain affordable credit, manufacturers struggle to finance expansion, and millions of productive MSMEs remain outside the formal financial system.”


Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso:
” The large capital raised by banks during the recapitalisation exercise indicated the depth of capital available locally.
Represented by the Deputy Governor in charge of Policy, Mr. Philip Ikeazor, the CBN governor  challenged operators in the industry to take advantage of the large capital now available to them to fund the real sectors of the economy, with a view to achieving the rapid growth that would impact on better living standards of Nigerians.
He urged state governments to collaborate with the CBN and the fiscal authorities at the federal level to effectively tame inflation, pledging that with the cooperation of all stakeholders, a single digit inflation was achievable.”

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