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Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development

The ongoing military escalation in the region has disrupted shipping flows through this narrow passage.

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The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, carrying around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. 

UNCTAD reports that the ongoing military escalation in the region has disrupted shipping flows through this narrow passage.

The resulting ripple effects go far beyond the region, affecting energy markets, maritime transport and global supply chains.

These developments raise concerns for global trade and development prospects. Oil markets have reacted quickly, with Brent crude prices now rising above $90 per barrel.

Higher energy, fertilizer and transport costs – including freight rates, bunker fuel prices and insurance premiums – may increase food costs and intensify cost-of-living pressures, particularly for the most vulnerable.

Similar repercussions were observed during recent global shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, which showed how disruptions in energy, transport and agricultural inputs can propagate across interconnected markets.

The current shock comes at a time when many developing economies struggle to service their debt, tightening fiscal space and limited capacity to absorb new price shocks.

While the overall global economic impacts will depend on the duration and scale of the disruption, the situation highlights the importance of continued monitoring, particularly implications for vulnerable economies.

Key implications and considerations

  • Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the vulnerability of critical maritime chokepoints to geopolitical tensions and their potential to transmit shocks across supply chains and commodity markets.
  • Reducing risks to global trade and development, including environmental risks, requires de-escalation and safeguarding maritime transport, ports and seafarers, and other civilian infrastructure, while maintaining secure trade corridors in line with international law and freedom of navigation
  • Economic impacts, both globally and for the region, will depend on the duration, intensity and geographic scope of the tensions. Continued monitoring is essential to assess evolving risks and their potential impacts.
  • Socio-economic implications for developing economies: Many developing countries already face high debt service burdens, limited fiscal space and constrained access to finance. In this context, rising energy, transport and food costs could strain public finances and increase pressure on household budgets, potentially heightening economic and social pressures and complicating progress toward sustainable development, particularly in economies heavily dependent on imported energy, fertilizers and staple foods.

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33 Nigerian Banks Beat CBN’s Recapialisation with ₦4.65trn Combined Capital Base

The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well­positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”

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•Governor of CBN, Olayemi Cardoso

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has wrapped up the banking sector recapitalisation programme it introduced two years ago (March 2024-March 31, 2026) with 33 banks successfully met the requirements deadline.

The banks raised a total of ₦4.65 trillion in new capital, according to a statement signed by Olubukola A. Akinwunmi, the Director, Banking Supervision and Hakama Sidi Ali (Mrs.), the Ag. Director, Corporate Communications.

It said that the recapialisation exercises recorded strong participation from both domestic and international investors, with 72.55% of capital sourced locally and 27.45% from international markets, reflecting sustained confidence in the Nigerian banking sector.

The statement noted that the Governor of CBN, Olayemi Cardoso said “the recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well­positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”

“The CBN confirms that 33 banks have met the revised minimum capital requirements established under the programme.

A limited number of institutions remain subject to ongoing regulatory and judicial processes, which are being addressed through established supervisory and legal frameworks.

“All banks remain fully operational, ensuring continued access to banking services for customers.

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Afreximbank Leads $4bn Financing for Dangote Refinery with $2.5bn Commitment

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African Export-Import Bank has underwritten $2.5 billion in a $4 billion senior syndicated term loan for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, in a move aimed at strengthening the refinery’s financial position and supporting its long-term growth and expansion strategy.

The five-year facility, arranged alongside Access Bank as co-Mandated Lead Arrangers, is designed to consolidate existing debt, optimise the refinery’s capital structure and align its financing with current operational realities.

The transaction marks a significant milestone for the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest refining and petrochemical complex with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

Afreximbank’s $2.5 billion participation represents the largest share of the syndicate, underscoring its strategic role in mobilising capital for industrial projects across the continent.

The bank said the financing aligns with its mandate to promote industrialisation, reduce reliance on imported petroleum products and deepen intra-African trade.

Since refining operations commenced in February 2024, Afreximbank has played a key role in supporting the project, including providing a $1 billion working capital facility and acting as financial adviser on the Naira-for-Crude initiative, which facilitates crude procurement and product sales in local currency.

Speaking during a strategy session in Cairo, Egypt, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Afreximbank, George Elombi, said the bank’s continued backing reflects confidence in indigenous African enterprises.

“We take immense pride in being the single largest provider of financing to the Dangote Group. We do so primarily because Dangote is African,” he said.

“When we invest in ourselves, we do more than create jobs and wealth or expand government revenues; we build a secure and resilient future for our continent”

Elombi disclosed that Afreximbank has committed about $15 billion to Dangote Group since 2015, highlighting the scale of its long-term partnership with the conglomerate.

President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, described the financing as a critical step in positioning the refinery for its next phase of expansion.

“This financing marks an important step in strengthening the financial foundation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals and positions the business for the next phase of its growth,” he said.

“We appreciate Afreximbank’s continued support and confidence in our vision to build world-class industrial capacity that serves Nigeria, Africa and global markets.”

The syndicated loan attracted strong participation from a mix of African and international financial institutions, reflecting sustained investor confidence in the refinery as a transformative industrial asset in advancing Africa’s energy security, reducing import dependence and supporting the continent’s broader industrialisation agenda.

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BUA Foods Plc Reports Strong 2025 Performance with ₦1.77 Trillion Revenue, Proposes Record ₦28 Dividend per Share

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Leading Nigerian food manufacturer BUA Foods Plc has announced robust full-year 2025 audited results, with revenue climbing 16% to ₦1.77 trillion from ₦1.53 trillion in 2024.

The growth was driven by sustained consumer demand for the company’s core staples sugar, flour, pasta, and rice alongside higher sales volumes and strategic pricing amid a challenging economic environment marked by inflationary pressures on households.

Profit after tax nearly doubled, rising 95% to ₦518.4 billion, while gross profit surged to ₦737.3 billion from ₦540.8 billion the previous year.

Operating profit also increased significantly to ₦656.6 billion.In a strong signal of confidence in its outlook and commitment to shareholder value, the Board of Directors has proposed a final dividend of ₦28 per ordinary share of 50 kobo.

This represents a 115% increase from the ₦13 per share paid in 2024, translating to a total payout of approximately ₦504 billion, subject to approval by shareholders at the company’s 2026 Annual General Meeting.

Chairman Abdul Samad Rabiu highlighted the results, stating that the substantial dividend hike underscores the company’s dedication to rewarding investors while continuing to invest in business expansion and operational efficiency.

BUA Foods, a major player in Nigeria’s food processing sector controlled by billionaire Abdul Samad Rabiu, has continued to benefit from scale advantages, market expansion, and resilient demand for essential food products despite broader economic headwinds.

The company’s shares have reacted positively in recent trading, reflecting investor optimism over the strong earnings and generous dividend proposal.

Full details of the financial statements were filed with the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) on Monday.

Analysts view the performance as a testament to BUA Foods’ robust business model and ability to navigate Nigeria’s macroeconomic challenges through volume growth and cost discipline.

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