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BREAKING: Nigeria’s GDP grows by 3.84% in Q4 2024, driven by services sector

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported that Nigeria’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.84 per cent in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024, compared to 3.46 per cent in Q3 2024 and 3.46 per cent in Q4 2023.

According to the NBS report, the GDP growth was primarily driven by the services sector, which expanded by 5.37 per cent and contributed 57.38 per cent to the overall GDP.

“The agriculture sector grew by 1.76%, from the growth of 2.10% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023,” the report stated.

In contrast, “The growth of the industry sector was 2.00%, a decline from 3.86% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023.”

The services sector’s contribution to the aggregate GDP in Q4 2024 was higher compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Overall, the annual GDP growth for 2024 was 3.40%, up from 2.74% in 2023.

The NBS also reported that the nominal GDP reached N78.37 trillion in Q4 2024, compared to N65,908,258.59 million in Q4 2023, representing a year-on-year nominal growth of 18.91%.

Oil Production Drops, Non-Oil Sector Contributes Significantly

The NBS report indicated that Nigeria’s average oil production in Q4 2024 was 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd).

This is “0.03million bpd lower” than the Q4 2023 production volume of 1.56mbpd and “0.06mbd higher than the daily average production of 1.47mbpd recorded in the third quarter of 2024”.

“The real growth of the oil sector was 1.48% (year-on-year) in Q4 2024, indicating a decrease of 10.64% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023 (12.11%),” the report explained.

The oil sector contributed 4.60 per cent to Nigeria’s total real GDP in Q4 2024, down from 4.70 per cent in the same period in 2023 and 5.57 per cent in the previous quarter.

The non-oil sector grew by 3.96 per cent in real terms in Q4 2024, higher than the 3.07 per cent in Q4 2023 and 3.37 per cent in Q3 2024.

The growth was primarily driven by financial and insurance institutions, information and communication (telecommunications), agriculture (crop production), transportation and storage (road transport), trade, and manufacturing.

“In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 95.40% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024, higher than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023 which was 95.30% and higher than the third quarter of 2024 recorded as 94.43%,” the NBS stated.

This report follows the NBS announcement on February 18th that Nigeria’s inflation rate decreased from 34.8 per cent in December 2024 to 24.48 per cent in January 2025.

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FG restricts paracetamol ,16 other products for local manufacturing

The cocoa industry is also shielded; cocoa butter, powder, and cakes, as well as chocolate preparations in blocks or bars exceeding two kilograms, are listed as prohibited items.

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• President Bola Tinubu

The Federal Government has totally banned the importation of seventeen products including paracetamol tablets and syrups, metronidazole, cotrimoxazole, and chloroquine from entering into the country through any port of entry.

The Federal Ministry of Finance on Saturday released the latest revised import prohibition list, dated April 1, 2026, under HS Codes 3003.10.00.00 through 3004.90.90.00

Other widely used health products, such as multivitamin capsules, aspirin, folic acid, and various ointments like penicillin and gentamycin, are now restricted to local manufacturers.

Furthermore, refined vegetable oils in retail packs of five litres or less, encompassing soya-bean, palm, and sunflower oils, are prohibited.

However, crude vegetable oil and specific fats like hydrogenated vegetable fats under HS 1516.20.10.00 are permitted to enter the country for industrial use.

In the retail and consumer goods category, the prohibition covers cane or beet sugar in retail packs and chemically pure sucrose containing added flavouring or colouring.

The cocoa industry is also shielded; cocoa butter, powder, and cakes, as well as chocolate preparations in blocks or bars exceeding two kilograms, are listed as prohibited items.

Other household essentials now restricted to local production include tomato paste, whole tomatoes put up for retail sale, and mineral and aerated waters.

The hygiene sector is notably impacted, as all forms of soaps and organic surface-active products (commonly known as detergents) are now barred from importation under HS Codes 3401.11.10.00 through 3402.90.00.00 when intended for retail sale.

Even everyday stationery is affected, as ballpoint pens and their refills are barred from importation, though the government made a specific concession for importing pen tips. Industrial and construction materials were not left out of the revised trade policy.

Bagged cement remains on the prohibited list under HS Code 2523.29.00.00, alongside NPK 15:15:15 fertilizers and similar variants.

The packaging industry faces a continued ban on corrugated paper, paper boards, and cartons, while the glass industry is protected by a prohibition on hollow glass bottles exceeding 150 milliliters in capacity.

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MAN Condemns World Bank’s Call for Nigeria PMS imports

MAN, described the April 2026 Nigeria Development Update (NDU) by the World Bank, as ” structurally flawed, counterproductive, and highly detrimental to Nigeria’s industrialization agenda

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The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) urged the Federal Government and the petroleum industry regulators to disregard the recent prescription by the World Bank that Nigeria should open its borders to imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to solve inflationary crisis.

In a position document titled ‘FUEL IMPORTATION PRESCRIPTION AS A RECIPE FOR DEINDUSTRIALISATION AND NATIONAL ECONOMIC RETROGRESSION,’ MAN, described the April 2026 Nigeria Development Update (NDU) by the World Bank, as ” structurally flawed, counterproductive, and highly detrimental to Nigeria’s industrialization agenda.”

Segun Ajayi – Kadir, its Director -General, noted that While we welcome the Bretton Woods institution’s clarification that national energy security is paramount in today’s volatile global climate, we reiterate our fundamental objection to the initial premise that reinstating petrol import licenses is a viable, long-term strategy to avert an inflation spike. It is not, and should not be considered as an option.

The Association emphasised that importation of PMS will undermine domestic refining capacity; contribute to the disruption of the foreign exchange market; disincentivize investment in and expansion of local refining, and truncate the relief that Nigerians have started to enjoy since the advent of Dangote Refinery and other local refineries.

Our Position

The World Bank’s report posited that the suspension of import licenses stifled competition, allowing domestic ex-depot prices to rise, thereby driving up inflation.

This analysis panders to short-term bias and does not take into account the following foundational macroeconomic realities of the Nigerian economy:

The FX Drain and the Major Driver of Inflation

Nigeria’s inflation is fundamentally cost-push and can be aggressively driven by exchange rate volatility.

Therefore, promoting PMS imports means returning to the era of fiercely competing for scarce foreign exchange (FX) to fund foreign refineries. Such depletion of FX depreciates the Naira further.

A weakened Naira spikes the cost of importing critical raw materials and machinery for domestic manufacturers, triggering a far bigger wave of inflation across all sectors of the economy than a temporary 12% differential in fuel pump prices.

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CBN introduces money market instrument NOFR

The introduction of NOFR positions Nigeria alongside global benchmarks such as SOFR in the United States, SONIA in the United Kingdom, €STR in the Eurozone, and TONA in Japan, while also complementing Africa’s JIBAR benchmark in South Africa.

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The Central Bank of Nigeria, in collaboration with the Financial Markets Dealers Association on Friday announced the introduction of the Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) as a new benchmark for the country’s money market.

The disclosure was contained in a press statement issued by the CBN’s Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Hakama Sidi-Ali.

According to the statement, the introduction of NOFR positions Nigeria alongside global benchmarks such as SOFR in the United States, SONIA in the United Kingdom, €STR in the Eurozone, and TONA in Japan, while also complementing Africa’s JIBAR benchmark in South Africa.

The apex bank explained that the new rate aligns Nigeria with global standards for short-term interest rate benchmarks and is expected to improve pricing efficiency in the money market

“NOFR was developed to align Nigeria with global best practices in short-term interest rate benchmarks.

It is expected to improve price discovery and transparency while promoting consistent pricing of money market instruments,” it added.

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