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Nigeria’s economy may be back from the brink — The Economist

Improvements in macroeconomic stability are restoring investor confidence.

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President Bola Tinubu

A spate of painful reforms is beginning to show results.

When nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo, the elected president, set out to clean up the economy after years of mismanagement by military governments.

Initially dismissed by critics, by the end of his second term Mr Obasanjo’s liberal policies had tamed inflation, spurred investment and raised annual gdp growth to around 7 percent.

It didn’t last. Over the past decade gdp per person has fallen.

Yet evidence is now mounting that another stretch of “golden years”, as one analyst calls the period following Mr Obasanjo’s liberalisation, may be on the cards.

In the past two and a half years Bola Tinubu, who in Mr Obasanjo’s day was the governor of Lagos and was elected president in 2023, has been enacting his own set of structural reforms.

As he gears up to run for a second term in 2027, they may be starting to pay off.

It is difficult to overstate the mess Mr Tinubu inherited.

When he took office in 2023, the country’s central bank had $7 billion (equivalent to 1.4% of gdp at the time) in obligations it could not meet, prompting international investors to flee en masse.

The bank’s credibility had been dented by a recklessly loose monetary policy, its mismanagement of dwindling foreign-exchange reserves and efforts to maintain an unsustainable tiered exchange-rate system.

Poverty has risen. But it looks as though Mr Tinubu’s bitter medicine is helping.

In 2022 alone the cash-strapped government spent some $10 billion, equivalent to 2.2% of gdp, on a ruinous fuel subsidy.

To fix things, Mr Tinubu’s government got on with a package of drastic structural reforms. It abolished the fuel subsidy and abandoned that multi-tiered system of dollar-pegged exchange rates, largely allowing the naira to float.

The Central Bank aggressively tightened monetary policy to curb the resulting bout of inflation.

The government also moved to improve security in the Niger Delta and offered a range of tax incentives to investors to boost dwindling oil production.

Nearly three years on, Nigeria’s 230 million people, especially the poor and the middle class, are still reeling from increases in fuel and food prices.

Poverty has risen. But it looks as though Mr Tinubu’s bitter medicine is helping.

The annual inflation rate, which hit a nearly 30-year high of 34.8% in December 2024, fell to 15.2% in December 2025.

Growth is returning.

The IMF expects the economy to expand by 4.4% in 2026.

Following two steep devaluations in 2023, the naira has stabilised (see chart).

The Central Bank’s foreign-exchange reserves have risen to $46 billion, their highest level in seven years.

Improvements in macroeconomic stability are restoring investor confidence.

On January 22nd Shell, a British company, said it hopes in 2027 to finalise plans, with partners, to develop a $20 billion offshore oilfield that has been sitting untapped for over 20 years.

Exxon Mobil, an American firm, has committed $1.5 billion to deep water development until 2027.

Local business leaders are more upbeat, too.

Oil-and-gas production is rising, much of it driven by local firms plugging leaks and improving output in onshore projects in the Niger Delta, which has become safer thanks to Mr Tinubu’s focus on security there.

All this should give the government some fiscal breathing room, particularly as the cheaper naira begins to raise the competitiveness of Nigeria’s non-oil exports such as cocoa and cashew nuts.

Recent reforms to taxation and tax collection, Mr Tinubu’s latest project, should help improve revenues further in the coming years.

Falling inflation should eventually begin to ease the cost-of-living pain.

However, even optimists have plenty of reasons to be cautious.

Savings from the fuel subsidy have largely been spent on servicing the public debt, which is still rising as the government continues to borrow against future sales of oil to fund its deficit.

Currently, some 60% of revenues are consumed by debt service.

On January 20th Nigeria’s finance minister said the government hoped to borrow less this year, but current budget projections suggest that is not realistic.

“The government is broke.

There’s nothing to invest in the future, that’s the truth,” says Esili Eigbe of Escap, a Nigerian consultancy.

Unless the government cuts civil-service salaries, another big chunk of spending, or is able to restructure loans to make them cheaper, the extra revenue from recent tax reforms looks unlikely to be available for improving infrastructure or to pay for public health care and education.

“They’ve brought the deficit down, but they don’t seem to show any greater ability to get capital projects out of the door,“ says David Cowan, an economist at Citi, an American bank.

All this means that it will take a long time for ordinary Nigerians, who until now have mostly borne the pain of Mr Tinubu’s reforms, to feel any benefit.

Buying food has been a particular struggle, not just for the 42% of Nigerians who live on less than $3 a day, the World Bank’s definition of extreme poverty, but also for the urban middle class.

The price of a kilo of rice has nearly quadrupled since May 2023, while wages have barely budged.

Even though inflation is now falling, many still struggle to afford enough to eat.

Mr Obasanjo’s reforms in the early 2000s aimed to increase economic dynamism and improve people’s lives by attracting fresh capital investment into newly privatised sectors.

By the end of his second term in 2007, domestic companies were worth $85 billion, up from $3 billion in 1999.

Mr Tinubu, by contrast, has so far focused on restoring stability and reviving the country’s ailing oil-and-gas sector. To bring about more golden years for Nigerians, he needs to go beyond that. ■

Credit: The Economist

Business

Global energy costs take its toll on Nigerian Manufacturers

The recent surge in global fuel prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, is compounding the challenge. While some manufacturers have temporarily absorbed the increases, Onafowakan warned that the full impact could materialise within the next three to four months.

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The Managing Director/CEO of Coleman Technical Industries Ltd, Mr George Onafowakan, said that the global higher energy costs occasioned by Iran -US Israeli war has started impacting on manufacturers in Nigeria.

Onafowokan said that findings across major industrial zones reveal a sector heavily dependent on diesel-powered generators, with factories running at high energy costs to sustain operations. Engineers and technical teams now work around the clock to monitor fuel consumption and prevent disruptions that could halt production lines.

Onafowakan stressed that power outages routinely stall factory operations, placing manufacturers under intense pressure to meet delivery timelines.

“When the lights go off, everything stops. We rely on generators, but the costs are rising, and there is constant uncertainty about meeting production targets,” he added.

The recent surge in global fuel prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, is compounding the challenge. While some manufacturers have temporarily absorbed the increases, Onafowakan warned that the full impact could materialise within the next three to four months.

“By the second quarter, businesses may be forced to make difficult decisions around production planning and pricing,” he said.

Beyond individual firms, the impact is already rippling across supply chains. Production delays are affecting dependent businesses and, ultimately, consumers, who are likely to face higher prices for goods.

Despite the growing pressure, Onafowakan said widespread layoffs or major operational restructuring may not occur immediately but cautioned that the situation could deteriorate without timely intervention.

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CBN orders banks to reverse failed ATM transactions immediately

The requirement will be implemented gradually over three years, with banks expected to meet 30 percent of the threshold in 2026, 60 percent in 2027 and full compliance by 2028.

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed banks to immediately reverse failed automated teller machine (ATM) transactions.

The apex bank said that the revised framework is designed to strengthen ATM service reliability, improve fraud monitoring, enhance security and ensure stronger consumer protection across Nigeria’s fast-growing digital payments ecosystem., tightening rules aimed at improving consumer protection and reliability across the country’s payment infrastructure.

Beyond refund timelines, the regulator introduced new requirements for ATM deployment nationwide.

All card issuers are required to deploy at least one ATM for every 7,500 payment cards issued.

The requirement will be implemented gradually over three years, with banks expected to meet 30 percent of the threshold in 2026, 60 percent in 2027 and full compliance by 2028.

Under new Guidelines on the Operations of Automated Teller Machines in Nigeria, the apex bank said failed “on-us” ATM transactions, where a customer uses the ATM of their own bank, must be reversed instantly. Where an instant reversal fails due to technical issues or system glitches, banks are required to complete a manual reversal within 24 hours.

For failed “not-on-us” transactions, where a customer uses another bank’s ATM, the refund timeline must not exceed 48 hours.

The guidelines also state that automated reversals for on-us transactions should occur in less than five minutes, while not-on-us transactions should be resolved in less than 15 minutes where automated systems function properly.

The CBN added that in cases where transaction failures arise from biometric mismatch or device errors, ATM operators must provide an immediate fallback to non-biometric verification where it is considered safe.

Such events must also be logged for diagnostics while the stipulated refund timelines are maintained.

The Central Bank also directed that ATMs must be located within reasonable proximity to one another across both urban and rural areas, while deployment, relocation or decommissioning of machines must receive prior written approval from the regulator.

The guidelines also set operational and service benchmarks for ATM operators.

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Nigeria Ranks 14th out of 50 Most Agricultural Land globally

The ranking highlights where the world’s largest agricultural footprints are located, spanning major producers across Asia, Africa, and the Americas.

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Nigeria has been ranked the fourteenth country among the top 50 Most Agricultural Land in the world.

Agricultural land spans more than 18 million square miles worldwide, forming the foundation of global food production.

In a data analysed by Visual Capitalist using the most recent FAO data compiled by the World Bank, China has the most agricultural land in the world, with roughly 2.0 million square miles.

The United States (1.6 million), Australia (1.4 million), Brazil (914,000) and Russia (832,826) round out the top five countries worldwide.

Each of these countries specialises in different crops.

For example, the U.S. is the world’s largest producer of corn, while Brazil is the top grower of both soybeans and sugarcane.

Meanwhile, Australia has overcome its mostly arid geography to become a major wheat and cereals grower, rivaling major producers like India (689,000) and Ukraine (160,000).

In the data, Asia and Africa account for a large share of the top 50 countries by agricultural land area.

African countries make up nearly half of the top 50 countries worldwide by square mileage of agricultural land area. They’re led by larger countries like Sudan (435,000), South Africa (372,000), and Nigeria (268,000).

The ranking highlights where the world’s largest agricultural footprints are located, spanning major producers across Asia, Africa, and the Americas.

Each of these countries specializes in different crops.

For example, the U.S. is the world’s largest producer of corn, while Brazil is the top grower of both soybeans and sugarcane.

Meanwhile, Australia has overcome its mostly arid geography to become a major wheat and cereals grower, rivaling major producers like India (689,000) and Ukraine (160,000).

Africa’s Growing Desert ProblemAfrican countries make up nearly half of the top 50 countries worldwide by square mileage of agricultural land area.

They’re led by larger countries like Sudan (435,000), South Africa (372,000), and Nigeria (268,000).

As with peers in Eurasia and the Americas, African agriculture is increasingly facing challenges from climate change.In particular, the growing desertification problem is reducing countries’ agricultural land, especially in the Sahel region, as temperatures rise and soil becomes less fertile for growing crops.

Over-farming and over-grazing are exacerbating regional soil erosion and deepening desertification.

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