Africa’s richest man and Chairman of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday projected a significant strengthening of the Nigerian naira, forecasting it could rally to as low as ₦1,100 per US dollar within 2026, driven by government reforms, import restrictions, and increased local production.

Speaking at the official launch of the National Industrial Policy 2025 in Abuja, attended by Vice President Kashim Shettima and other dignitaries, Dangote expressed optimism about the currency’s trajectory amid ongoing economic measures.

“Today, the dollar is N1,340. Mr Vice-President, I can assure you that, with what I know, by blocking all this importation and so on, the naira this year will be as low as N1,100 if we are lucky,” Dangote stated, according to multiple reports from the event.

He attributed the potential appreciation to reduced foreign exchange demand from imports, as local manufacturing ramps up including contributions from his own Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is scaling toward full capacity. Dangote praised recent policy directions for beginning to yield positive results, noting that manufacturers are increasingly optimistic.

The forecast comes as the naira has shown signs of stabilization in recent weeks, trading around ₦1,300–₦1,340 to the dollar in official and parallel markets, a marked improvement from higher levels earlier in the year.

Dangote suggested that sustained import controls and industrial growth could push the currency even further, potentially toward ₦1,000 per dollar under ideal conditions, though he cautioned that policy consistency would be key.

The remarks align with broader optimism in some quarters, including from billionaire Femi Otedola, who recently projected the naira could trade below ₦1,000/$ before year-end, largely crediting the Dangote Refinery’s role in cutting dollar outflows for fuel imports.

Dangote also highlighted challenges, emphasizing the need for reliable power supply and continued government incentives to support industrial expansion and sustain the projected currency rally.

Analysts view the prediction as bullish but contingent on factors like forex policy enforcement, oil revenues, and global commodity prices.

The naira’s performance has been volatile in recent years due to external pressures and domestic structural issues, but recent CBN interventions and refinery developments have fueled renewed confidence among investors.

The statement has sparked discussions on social media and economic forums, with many welcoming the positive outlook while others call for concrete actions to realize such gains for everyday Nigerians facing inflation and import costs.

The House of Representatives Ad hoc Committee on the review of tax and export incentives, waivers and exemptions, has lamented the country’s annual loss of about N8 trillion to waivers and concessions.

The Chairman of the Committee, Hon. James Faleke, who bore the minds of the committee, said that available data indicated that Nigeria loses an estimated N8 trillion annually to such waivers and concessions.

“Between 2023 and 2026, the federal government projects total revenue forgone from tax incentives at ₦12.4 trillion, while the tax-to-GDP ratio remains at only 10.6%, which is among the lowest in Africa.

This is paradoxical and concerning, given the financial and fiscal challenges the nation is facing. The new tax regime has presented us with an opportunity to look inwards,” Faleke stated.

He explained that the review followed growing concerns, based on the available official data and budgetary reports that significant public revenues may have been forgone or ineffectively applied under various incentive schemes

Faleke said this was happening at a time when the nation continued to face pressing fiscal, infrastructure, and development challenges.

“While these incentives were originally designed to stimulate investment, promote exports, support strategic sectors, and grow the economy, the House has resolved that it is both necessary and timely to; assess their actual economic impacts.

Determine whether they were administered transparently and in line with due process; and ensure that Government support delivers measurable value to the Nigerian economy.“

Given the breadth and complexity of the subject matter, the Committee is conducting its work in phases. The first phase of the review focuses on four priority areas with significant fiscal and economic implications:“The Export Expansion Grant (EEG); The RT200bn FX Programme; The Pioneer Status Incentive; and Selected Oil and Gas fiscal incentives,” he said.

Nigeria lost an estimated $1.31 billion due to its failure to meet its 1.5 million-barrel-per-day quota set by OPEC between January 2025 and January 2026.

Data show cumulative shortfalls of 18.12 million barrels despite relatively firm global oil prices.

Analysts say the core challenge is not price volatility but persistent production disruptions and structural inefficiencies.

The shortfall raises fresh concerns about Nigeria’s 2026 budget assumptions and broader investor confidence in Africa’s top oil producer.