Connect with us

Opinions

Agbakoba Writes Oyetola on ‘Unlocking Nigeria’s Maritime Potential to Generate ₦70 Trillion Annually’

In the West and Central Africa region, 80% of containers are destined for Nigeria, but less than 20% actually arrive because of the decayed infrastructure—whether at Lagos, Port Harcourt, or other ports.

Published

on

396 Views

IN SUMMARY

The N70 trillion will come from :

1. Port Infrastructure Development (N14 trillion annually)

2. Inland Waterways Development (N10-12 trillion annually).

3. Cabotage Enforcement (N8 trillion annually).

4. Oil Rig Taxation (N6 trillion annually—approximately 17% of the National Budget).

5. Oil and Gas Maritime Services (N16 trillion in annual losses)

6. Maritime Security and Blue Economy (N8-10 trillion annually).

7. Emerging Maritime Technologies (N5-6 trillion annually).

Dr. Olisa Agbakoba SAN Senior Partner, Olisa Agbakoba Legal (OAL), recently wrote to the minister of finance / coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun , on  Positioning Nigeria Towards A N1 Quadrillion Economy.

This time, he writes to the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola, on the subject: “Unlocking Nigeria’s Maritime Potential to Generate ₦70 Trillion Annually.

INTRODUCTION

The maritime sector is potentially Nigeria’s largest economic sector outside oil and gas.

The Nigerian Institution of Marine Engineers and Naval Architects (NIMENA) projects that the maritime industry could contribute approximately $44 billion (N70 trillion) annually to Nigeria’s GDP with improved governance and regulation.

However, we are currently losing enormous revenue due to inadequate legal frameworks, poor infrastructure, and insufficient private sector participation.

The adoption of the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) by the Federal Executive Council is most welcome.

The policy document contains comprehensive recommendations for legal and regulatory reforms.

What is now needed is decisive implementation to unleash the sector’s tremendous potential.

It is within this implementation context that I write to present specific, revenue-generating interventions that can accelerate the policy’s objectives and deliver quantifiable outcomes within one year.

• Cargo ships

THE OPPORTUNITY: N70 TRILLION IN ANNUAL RECOVERABLE REVENUE

OAL study reveals that Nigeria’s maritime sector presents extraordinary opportunities currently unrealised due to legal and regulatory gaps.

The transformative element of this proposal is that the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) already contains most of the required legal and institutional reforms needed to capture these opportunities.

I shall now proceed to set them out as follows:

1. Port Infrastructure Development (N14 trillion annually)

Ports are critical to the development of any economy.

If people produce goods but cannot move them, the economy cannot get ahead.

In the West and Central Africa region, 80% of containers are destined for Nigeria, but less than 20% actually arrive because of the decayed infrastructure—whether at Lagos, Port Harcourt, or other ports.

A recent report by Dynanmar, a Dutch consultancy firm, shows that Nigeria loses approximately N20 billion daily at the ports due to poor infrastructure and inefficiencies, with most revenue flowing to neighbouring ports, particularly Cotonou, Tema, and Lomé.Nigeria should be a maritime hub like Morocco, which is building one of the biggest sea ports to trade effectively with Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.

But we cannot be a maritime hub if our ports are in a bad state.

Yet the Lekki Deep Sea Port demonstrates the transformative potential—it is already attracting over $20 billion in investment and provides a replicable model for port modernization across Nigeria. Imagine what would come if all other ports were operating optimally.

The Apapa City Port requires massive overhaul. Strategic ports remain grossly underdeveloped or abandoned.

The Onitsha River Port lies idle despite its potential to transform inland cargo movement and decongest Lagos ports. New ports at Azumiri and Oraji are underdeveloped.

Port development projects in Akwa Ibom and Ogun states are commendable, but much more needs to be done.

To unlock this opportunity requires:

(a) enacting the Ports and Inland Waterways Development Act to modernise port operations, establish legal backing for Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in port development, reform governance of the Nigerian Ports Authority to improve efficiency and competitiveness, regulate inland waterway transport ensuring safe navigation and infrastructure investment, and provide incentives for private sector investment in modern port infrastructure and smart port technology;

(b) amending the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) Act (1999) to enhance private sector participation through robust PPP frameworks; and(c) amending the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) Act (1997) to mandate systematic dredging programmes, establish inland port development frameworks, and enable private sector participation in waterway management.

Achieving cargo dwell time of 48 hours or less and port throughput growth of 15% yearly or more are critical performance indicators.

Revenue streams include port tariffs and cargo handling fees from vessels using Nigerian ports, berthing and anchorage fees, container storage fees, transit trade fees for landlocked countries using Nigerian ports, and special economic zones for shipbuilding, repairs, and logistics.

2. Inland Waterways Development (N10-12 trillion annually).

The bad state of the ports is directly connected to our inland waterways. When the British were here, we had 42 inland waterways connected to roads and railways for cargo movement.

Nigeria must build a multimodal superhighway linking roads, trains, and inland waterways to maximize our trade potential.Nigeria’s inland waterways represent transformational economic corridors comparable to the Nile in Egypt.

Dredging the River Benue to Lokoja and the River Niger from Baro in Niger State to the Atlantic Ocean to a minimum draught of ten feet will enable transportation from Baro to Onitsha by speed boat in 90 minutes instead of 9 hours, and ferrying tonnes of yam and other farm produce from Makurdi to Onitsha on self-propelled barges in three hours.

Over 25,000 foreign vessels illegally trade in Nigeria’s coastal waters, representing both a national security challenge and massive economic loss.

The Nile River, at 26 to 36 feet deep, supports busy traffic of cargo and cruise ships, with cruises costing up to $500 per person for four days.

A fully operational Niger-Benue river system would dramatically reduce transportation costs, decongest road infrastructure, and create substantial tourism revenues comparable to Egypt’s Nile-based economic corridor.

This requires:(a) amendments to the NIWA Act to mandate systematic dredging programmes and inland port development;(b) enacting a Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) Act to regulate ocean space usage and avoid conflicts between industries (fishing, shipping, tourism, offshore energy), establishing a Marine Spatial Planning Authority to allocate maritime zones, setting rules for zoning fishing areas, shipping lanes, conservation zones, and renewable energy projects, and providing mechanisms for stakeholder consultation and dispute resolution;(c) enacting a Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture Act to strengthen regulation of fisheries and aquaculture ensuring sustainability and food security, introducing a national fisheries management system to enforce fishing quotas and conservation rules, creating a licensing system for commercial and artisanal fisheries, banning destructive fishing practices and regulating foreign fishing vessels, and strengthening penalties for Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing; and

(d) revitalisation of abandoned inland ports including the Onitsha River Port to restore the integrated multimodal transport system essential for economic competitiveness.

Revenue streams include toll charges on inland waterway transport managed by NIWA, revenue from ferry services for passenger and cargo transportation, foreign vessel licensing fees for companies fishing in Nigeria’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), commercial fishing permits for industrial-scale fishing companies, artisanal fishing licenses for small-scale fishers, and value-added income from fish processing industries.

3. Cabotage Enforcement (N8 trillion annually)

Over 25,000 foreign vessels illegally trade in Nigeria’s coastal waters, representing both a national security challenge and massive economic loss.

The National Policy specifically recommends reviewing the Coastal and Inland Shipping (Cabotage) Act 2003, strengthening institutions for effective enforcement, encouraging inter-agency synergy for implementation, and streamlining access to the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF).

To capture this opportunity requires:(a) amending the Cabotage Act (2003) to establish strict enforcement mechanisms and compliance requirements, with penalties including vessel seizure for violations, thereby ensuring Nigerian-crewed vessels constitute 50% or more of coastal trade and preventing the ongoing haemorrhaging of revenue to foreign operators;

(b) strengthening inter-agency collaboration between NIMASA, NPA, NIWA, Nigerian Navy, Marine Police, and security agencies for better governance and coordinated enforcement; and

(c) establishing a National Blue Economy Commission as a centralized body to coordinate activities across ministries of transport, environment, fisheries, petroleum, and trade, and develop marine economic zones to attract investments.

Revenue streams include registration fees from Nigerian-flagged vessels under NIMASA, fees from foreign vessels operating in Nigerian waters under the Cabotage Act, seafarers’ certification and training fees from maritime workers and companies, and increased domestic shipping revenues from Nigerian vessels.

4. Oil Rig Taxation (N6 trillion annually—approximately 17% of the National Budget)

Oil rigs have formed a cartel for tax avoidance. OAL is representing NIMASA in a tax avoidance case brought by oil rig companies.

NIMASA has confirmed that tax is currently not collected from oil rigs.Capturing this revenue requires:(a) amending the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) Act (2007) to expand its mandate beyond shipping, marine labor, and environmental protection to include responsibilities for marine conservation and blue economy oversight, establish a robust taxation framework for oil rigs operating in Nigerian waters, increase penalties for maritime pollution, illegal vessel operations, and labor violations, and strengthen NIMASA’s role in coastal tourism and renewable energy initiatives;(b) enacting a Marine Pollution Control and Climate Adaptation Act to strengthen environmental protection measures addressing pollution, oil spills, and climate risks, establish stricter penalties for marine pollution including oil spills, plastic waste, and ship-based pollution, require all offshore oil and gas companies to develop spill response and cleanup plans, support coastal communities with climate adaptation strategies including shoreline protection and disaster response, and mandate green shipping initiatives including reduced carbon emissions for vessels;(c) amending the Petroleum Industry Act (2021) to strengthen regulations on offshore oil and gas drilling to reduce environmental risks and introduce mandatory decommissioning funds for oil companies to clean up decommissioned offshore platforms;(d) creating a Marine Pollution Task Force to monitor and enforce environmental regulations across ports, coastal industries, and offshore platforms; and(e) amending the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Act (1978) to update and increase Nigeria’s control over deep-sea mining and marine biodiversity conservation, and introduce provisions for sustainable offshore energy projects including offshore wind farms.

Revenue streams include royalties from offshore oil drilling and gas extraction, corporate taxes on oil companies operating in deep-sea oil fields, fees for pipeline installations and seabed resource extraction rights, tax revenue from private-sector investments in fish farms and marine aquaculture, revenue from private investment in offshore wind farms and tidal energy projects, and carbon credit sales under global climate agreements for using clean marine energy.

5. Oil and Gas Maritime Services (N16 trillion in annual losses)

This presents enormous losses across four critical value chains that exclude Nigerians.

Over $1 billion worth of legal work annually is lost to foreign firms. Nigerian shipping companies are not engaged to lift our crude oil products.

Funds accruable to Nigeria from crude oil production are domiciled in foreign banks and sometimes held for months before remittance to the Central Bank of Nigeria.

No Nigerian marine insurance company is involved in insurance underwriting for the over 1,000 oil rigs in Nigerian waters.

This stands in stark contrast to Saudi Arabia’s successful IKTVA program, which mandates and enforces local content, ensuring value retention within its economy.

To recapture these losses requires:(a) amending the Merchant Shipping Act (2007) to regulate the shipping industry, ship registration, and safety, and reviewing the legal framework for carriage of cargo from Free on Board (FOB) to Cost Insurance and Freight (CIF) to support growth of a national fleet;(b) strengthening enforcement of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (Local Content Act) 2010 across all excluded value chains including legal services, shipping, banking, and insurance;(c) establishing the Maritime Development Bank to provide critical maritime assets and financing for indigenous capacity development; and(d) developing public-private partnerships (PPPs) in port expansion, inland waterway development, shipbuilding, and maritime infrastructure through tax incentives for investments in sustainable fishing, tourism, and renewable energy.Revenue streams include recaptured legal services fees, shipping revenues from Nigerian vessels lifting crude oil, timely remittance of oil revenues to CBN, and marine insurance underwriting fees.

6. Maritime Security and Blue Economy (N8-10 trillion annually)

This revenue potential comes through increased port traffic, reduced insurance premiums, and enhanced foreign direct investment in maritime infrastructure.

The Deep Blue Project, inaugurated in June 2021, has proven effective—the International Maritime Bureau acknowledged a 30 per cent drop in piracy cases in 2021 alone, demonstrating measurable return on security investments.

However, only a coast guard can adequately protect and assure maritime safety and security.

A fully secured maritime environment would attract international shipping lines currently avoiding Nigerian waters, dramatically increasing port revenues and related economic activities.

Achieving insurance premium reduction of 40% or more through sustained security would further unlock this sector’s potential.

This requires:(a) strengthening implementation of the Suppression of Piracy and Other Maritime Offences (SPOMO) Act of 2019 as specifically recommended in the National Policy;(b) enacting a Coast Guard Establishment Act to create a dedicated institution for maritime safety and security;(c) enacting a Maritime Security and Piracy Suppression Act to strengthen legal measures to combat piracy, sea robbery, and other maritime crimes, provide additional legal backing for Nigerian Navy and Marine Police to enforce security in Nigerian waters, establish specialized maritime courts to handle piracy, smuggling, and maritime security violations, and strengthen public-private partnerships for maritime surveillance including deploying technology for monitoring Nigerian waters;

(d) strengthening the Nigerian Navy and Marine Police through better funding and technology for coastal and offshore surveillance; and

(e) improving collaboration with ECOWAS and Gulf of Guinea partners for regional maritime security.Nigeria should also align with international and regional frameworks including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), International Maritime Organization (IMO) Conventions (MARPOL for pollution control, SOLAS for safety, STCW for seafarers), Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Paris Agreement on Climate Change, FAO Port State Measures Agreement for combating illegal fishing, African Union Blue Economy Strategy, African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), Gulf of Guinea Maritime Security Strategy, and ECOWAS Integrated Maritime Strategy (EIMS).

Revenue streams include fees from shipping companies for naval escort services in piracy-prone areas, revenue from joint maritime security operations with foreign shipping companies, fines imposed on vessels violating maritime laws (illegal fishing, pollution, piracy), confiscation and auctioning of vessels involved in illegal activities, tax revenue from hotels, resorts, and tourism operators along Nigeria’s coastline, fees from coastal ecotourism activities including whale watching, diving, and marine parks, entry fees for protected marine areas and islands, berthing fees from cruise ships docking at Nigerian ports, licenses for private yacht operations and water sports businesses, and luxury tourism taxes on high-end marine tourism experiences.

7. Emerging Maritime Technologies (N5-6 trillion annually)

This revenue potential comes through early adoption advantages and positioning Nigeria as a regional hub for digital maritime services.

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will implement mandatory requirements for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) by January 1, 2028.

Early implementation before this deadline would give Nigeria competitive advantage in West African maritime services, attract technology investments, and capture digital trade documentation fees currently lost to foreign platforms.Nigeria must:

(a) enact the Legal Framework for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) to position Nigeria for emerging maritime technologies before IMO’s mandatory 2028 requirements;(b) enact the Electronic Bill of Lading (eB/L) Framework to digitalise maritime trade documentation and capture fees currently lost to foreign platforms;

(c) enact a Blue Economy Act to establish a comprehensive legal framework for Nigeria’s blue economy covering marine governance, resource management, and economic development, with provisions establishing the National Blue Economy Commission to coordinate activities across ministries and agencies, providing clear rules on marine resource allocation, licensing, and conservation, defining legal responsibilities for the private sector, local communities, and government agencies, and outlining penalties for environmental violations, illegal fishing, and marine pollution;(d) amend the Sea Fisheries Act (1992) to increase fines and penalties for IUU fishing, strengthen monitoring and surveillance of Nigeria’s fishing waters using satellite tracking and observer programs, and require fishing vessels to adopt sustainable practices and report catch data transparently; and

(e) support capacity building and research institutions—support universities and research institutes in marine sciences and innovation to develop indigenous expertise.Revenue streams include revenue from pharmaceutical companies using marine resources for drug development, licensing fees for marine research and bioprospecting companies exploring Nigeria’s waters, tax income from seaweed farming for export as food, cosmetics, and biofuel raw material, government partnerships with investors in marine-based biofuels, government revenue from companies extracting rare earth minerals, manganese, and cobalt from Nigeria’s EEZ, taxes on companies exploring for marine-based minerals for battery production, income from controlled sand dredging for construction and land reclamation, and licensing fees for coral harvesting for medicinal and scientific purposes.

CONCLUSION

Nigeria’s maritime sector presents a N70 trillion annual opportunity (as projected by NIMENA) currently unrealised due to legal and regulatory gaps.

The transformative element of this proposal is that the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) already contains most of the required legal and institutional reforms.

The roadmap exists; what is needed is decisive implementation to translate policy into law and law into measurable economic outcomes.

This policy paper outlines a comprehensive legislative framework comprising nine new laws to be enacted (Ports and Inland Waterways Development Act, Marine Spatial Planning Act, Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture Act, Marine Pollution Control and Climate Adaptation Act, Coast Guard Establishment Act, Maritime Security and Piracy Suppression Act, Legal Framework for MASS, Electronic Bill of Laden.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Opinions

Reframing Nigeria’s Banditry Crisis: From Emotional Narratives to Strategic Clarity

My work took me repeatedly into frontline areas: Birnin Gwari and its adjoining corridors; the forests and flashpoints of Zamfara, Katsina, and Niger States; and into out-of-reach locations in Chikun, Igabi, Giwa, Kajuru, Kachia, Kagarko, Kauru, Kubau, and other high-risk zones across the state and beyond.
My submission is, essentially, a summary of the practical knowledge from my involvement.

Published

on

By

75 Views

By Samuel Aruwan

PROLOGUE

Nigeria is once again trapped in a familiar and dangerous cycle: confronting a grave national security threat through emotionally charged narratives, partisan framings, and poorly differentiated solutions that blur the line between grievance and criminality.

The armed banditry plaguing Northern Nigeria—particularly across the North-West and parts of the North-Central—has generated an avalanche of commentary for and against dialogue with bandits. While supporters of dialogue are often cast as well-intentioned, their opponents frequently argue that such a stance is insensitive to the victims of banditry.

This essay intervenes in that conversation. Its purpose is not to provoke a sterile debate between advocates of ‘dialogue’ and proponents of ‘kinetic action,’ nor to dismiss non-kinetic tools wholesale.

Rather, it seeks to interrogate the assumptions, misdiagnoses, and conceptual errors that increasingly shape public discourse on banditry, often in ways that undermine Nigeria’s national security rather than strengthen it.

What is urgently required is clarity of threat, precision of categorisation, and discipline in policy response.

Banditry in Northern Nigeria is neither monolithic nor reducible to a single narrative of grievance.

Treating it as such—through emotional understanding, ethnic profiling, or indiscriminate calls for amnesty—risks legitimising violent criminal enterprises, emboldening perpetrators, and eroding the state’s monopoly over the use of force.

Author’s Background

I write neither as a passive observer nor as a theorist detached from the theatre of violence.

Before entering public service, I spent over a decade as a journalist covering conflict and insecurity in Northern Nigeria.

I later served as Spokesperson to the Government of Kaduna State and pioneer Commissioner of Internal Security and Home Affairs.

For nearly a decade, I was a member—and later Secretary—of the State Security Council, actively involved in security operations, liaison between the Government of Kaduna State and security forces, coordination of intelligence gathering and internal security, among other responsibilities.

Bandits Frontline Areas

My work took me repeatedly into frontline areas: Birnin Gwari and its adjoining corridors; the forests and flashpoints of Zamfara, Katsina, and Niger States; and into out-of-reach locations in Chikun, Igabi, Giwa, Kajuru, Kachia, Kagarko, Kauru, Kubau, and other high-risk zones across the state and beyond. My submission is, essentially, a summary of the practical knowledge from my involvement.

Banditry in Northern Nigeria today is not primarily a grievance-based phenomenon seeking political redress.

It is a violent, profit-driven criminal ecosystem that has evolved into a quasi-corporate enterprise, with diversified revenue streams, transnational arms supply chains, and entrenched leadership structures.

To treat it otherwise is to misread the threat.

Banditry is not new to Northern Nigeria. Historical accounts trace cattle rustling and armed robbery as far back as 1891 around Dansadau, where some traditional rulers were accused of colluding with bandits.

From Cross -Border to Rural criminality

Cross-border criminality involving some Tuareg, Fulani, Gobirawa, and Asebenawa actors existed during the colonial period, but these activities were limited in scale and lethality, constrained by the absence of widespread small arms proliferation.

The contemporary mutation of banditry emerged gradually but decisively in the post-2011 period.

What began as rural criminality—cattle rustling, highway robbery, and communal disputes—metastasised into mass kidnapping, village annihilation, sexual violence, arms and drug trafficking, territorial control, and many other challenges.

The turning point was not merely grievance but weaponisation: the transition from sticks and swords to pump-action rifles and, eventually, AK-47s and other high-calibre weapons.

First modern bandit gang

Scholarly work, including that of Dr. Murtala Rufai, identifies Alhaji Kundu and Buhari Tsoho (Buharin Daji) as architects of the first modern bandit gang.

Their operations expanded rapidly across Zamfara and neighbouring states, eventually spawning over 120 gangs by 2021.

Between 2011 and 2021 alone, these groups reportedly killed over 12,000 people, displaced tens of thousands, destroyed entire villages, and stole hundreds of thousands of livestock.

Crucially, the early victims of modern banditry were Fulani herders whose cattle were rustled en masse by bandits of the same Fulani extraction.

Eventually, these legitimate cattle owners resorted to self-help by also acquiring low-calibre weapons to protect their livestock from being rustled by the bandits, as police and traditional rulers’ interventions failed and the authorities turned a blind eye—not seeing the dangers ahead and just perceiving the development as usual intra-Fulani herders feud. In return, because of their contacts and resources, the bandits started acquiring automatic weapons and overpowered these legitimate cattle owners and massively rustled their cattle.

It also got to a stage where bandits were kidnapping these cattle owners and demanding herds of cattle or its equivalent in cash as ransom.

Many cattle owners who had no herds of cattle to present nor money to pay as ransom were killed, and some of their daughters and wives were forcibly taken as sex slaves.

This trend impoverished these owners, driving many of their kin to join banditry to recover stolen cattle.

Others joined gangs like the ‘Kungiyar Gayu’ to demand pastoral unity and justice in response to cattle rustling, extortions, allegations of injustices by local traditional rulers, police partialities, politicians, local court corruption, and other abnormal practices that exposed them to extreme poverty without a source of livelihood.

Some were also brainwashed by bandits to join banditry in the name of resisting a perceived agenda against their ethnicity in view of social discrimination and stereotyping.

The Kundu and Tsoho’s gang

As I have previously argued, the first main targets of Kundu and Tsoho’s gang were the legitimate Fulani cattle owners.

Once they were finished with them, they turned to rustling the farming cattle (Shanun Huda) of Hausa farmers, alongside killings, kidnappings, gender-based violence of the Hausa women, confiscation of properties, and the destruction of farms.

In response, Hausa farming communities formed volunteer groups, commonly referred to as ‘Yan-Sakai’ or ‘Yan-Banga’.

The excesses of these volunteers—generalising and categorising all Fulani, including herders who were also victims, as complicit—drew a dangerous ethnic battle line.

The rural Fulani herders could no longer access towns and markets, while Hausa farming communities could not access their farms deep in the forest.

Markets became inaccessible. Farms were abandoned. Forests became battlefields.

This development set in motion killings and counter-killings, even as cattle rustling intensified.

Kidnapping for ransom

In the midst of this, kidnapping for ransom emerged, with bandits carrying out abductions and the ‘Yan-Sakai’ organizing counter attacks—excesses that affect the innocent based on shared ethnicity.

This dynamic further compounds the crisis, as aggrieved innocents seek vengeance, since there is no justice system to dispense justice, while the bandits and ‘Yan-Sakai’ pursue their own, parallel cycles of retribution.

The ‘Yan-Sakai’ killing of a Fulani leader, Alhaji Isshe of Chilin village in Maru Local Government Area of Zamfara State—an event recorded as occurring on 16th August 2012—marked a decisive escalation.

As Rufai noted in his thesis, they carried out the public murder on the accusation that he was harboring criminals and rustlers. Reprisal followed reprisal.

What began as criminality hardened into an ethnicised cycle of violence, even as bandit gangs expanded operations against all communities regardless of identity.

By the time the government acted, the criminality had become entrenched across several centres of gravity in Zamfara State and neighbouring corridors. Kidnapping and attacks intensified around 2013 and resurged in 2016 across Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Niger, Plateau, and Benue.

A major obstacle to an effective response has been the tendency of some media sections to fracture the banditry narrative along ethnic and religious lines: one story for Zamfara and Katsina, another for non-Hausa communities in Plateau and Benue.

The Tiv and The Fulani

The criminality perpetrated by the bandits—for instance, in Benue and Plateau states—further ignited the long-standing farmers-herders, land-grabbing, and indigene-settler tensions and crises, which usually take on religious and ethnic dimensions because the farmers are largely non-Fulani Christians while the herders are Fulani Muslims.

This escalation occurred despite a positive history of Fulani-Tiv and Fulani-Berom relations built on complementary farming and pastoralism over time.

The good side of Tiv and Fulani brotherhood was well captured by Akiga Sai (1898-1959) in his book ‘History of the Tiv’.

The exact passage is: “Besieged with animosity from their neighbours, the Tiv pulled out from their neighbors, the Tiv pulled out from their midst and migrated north-east, if one uses a modern compass, until they met with another alien group called Fulani and mingled with them. The Fulani never troubled them by interfering with their way of life.

They formed close bonds with each other. In case of any attack by another group, the Fulani would easily repel such an attack.

The Tiv marvelled at the dexterity with which the Fulani fought and defeated aggressor ethnic groups and nicknamed the Fulani pul, meaning ‘conqueror’ in the Tiv language.”

Akiga Sai was a man of historic firsts.

He was the first Tiv man to declare himself a Christian in 1912 and was among the first group of four to be baptised in 1917.

He became the first Tiv to read and write, edited the first Tiv newsletter (Mwanger u Tiv) published by the Gaskiya Corporation, served as the first Tiv elected politician in the Northern House of Assembly, was one of the delegates sent to the London constitutional conference in 1953, and authored the first book ever written by a Tiv person.

He completed the Tiv language manuscript for his book, ‘History of the Tiv’, in 1935. An edited English translation by Rupert East was first published by the International African Institute in 1939 under the title ‘Akiga’s Story: the Tiv tribe as seen by one of its members.’

Ethnic Conflicts in Plateau State

In a separate 2016 article on Nigerian linguistics, the scholar Farooq Kperogi notes: “Again, although the Fulani and the Berom of Plateau State see themselves as belonging to the furthest poles of northern Nigeria’s political and cultural divide, especially in light of the recent internecine ethnic conflict in Plateau State, they not only belong to the larger Niger Congo language family (to which many languages in central and southern Nigeria belong); they actually belong to the same Atlantic Congo subfamily of the Niger Congo family.”

These historical and linguistic ties underscore how the contemporary framing of conflict along rigid ethnic lines is dangerous, one that bandits and partisan narratives exploit.

Much as there’s a problem, the better part of the past can be used in reframing narratives to halt bloodshed and exploit the strengths of diversities and the ubiquitous of all humans.

Furthermore, the fact that banditry is perpetrated by criminals whose ethnic identity is traceable to Fulani has exacerbated the problem.

I have argued elsewhere that, despite the symbiotic nature of banditry and farmers-herders conflicts, there is a fundamental difference between the two; and all parties (farmers and herders communities) are ultimately victims of the banditry perpetrated by these criminals and their collaborators who are driven by economics and terror.

The book ‘The Root Cause of Farmers-Herders Crisis in North Central Nigeria’ by Plangshak Musa Suchi and Sallek Yaks Musa explores this problematic nexus in greater detail.

Media Reportage

The media’s selective framing fuels polarization and obscures the underlying criminal logic that drives the violence. Banditry is not tribal or identity-based violence but a form of terrorism and criminality perpetrated by criminal elements who must be viewed and treated as such.

Ethnic profiling weakens the collective battle against crime, complicates counter-banditry campaigns, and strengthens the bandits’ emotional narratives.

At its core, contemporary banditry is sustained by money.

What began as cattle rustling evolved into a sophisticated criminal economy with multiple income streams: ransom payments, cattle sales, arms trafficking, illegal mining, protection levies, forced taxation, mercenary killings, drug peddling, and collaboration with transnational criminal networks across borders.

Some kingpins transitioned from field operations into full-time arms dealing, supplying weapons not only to their own gangs but to other criminal actors. In certain forest corridors, weapons became easier to obtain than food.

Bandits Shadow Goverance

The accumulation of wealth allowed bandits to establish shadow governance structures in ungoverned spaces and thrive in their lucrative enterprise of crime.

Faced with mass casualties and public pressure, several state governments in the past turned to dialogue and peace accords.

Early attempts at negotiation were documented, such as a reported meeting with the bandit leader Buharin Daji at Gobirawa Chali village in December 2016.

Zamfara, Katsina, and others experimented repeatedly with negotiations, arms surrender ceremonies, and promises of reintegration.

Key events include a peace agreement in Katsina on 15th January 2017, a major surrender ceremony in Zamfara on 16th December 2019, and another peace accord enacted by the Zamfara state government in 2019.

Each time, violence temporarily subsided—only to return with greater ferocity.

Former Governor Aminu Bello Masari’s frustration was telling: peace accords rarely lasted beyond a few months. Bandits regrouped, rearmed, and resumed operations.

In Kaduna State, an attempt to suggest dialogue was rebuffed, and the state maintained an outright rejection of negotiation—a stance hardened by major attacks in 2021 and 2022.

This position stemmed from a hard-earned assessment: financially incentivised criminals have little reason to abandon lucrative violence. Dialogue is not inherently wrong. Its error lies in misapplication.

A central failure in Nigeria’s discourse is the refusal to distinguish between categories of armed actors involved in the banditry cycle.

There exists a group of low-risk non-state actors: individuals who armed themselves defensively after suffering attacks from bandits or vigilantes, as earlier discussed.

They do not engage in predatory kidnapping but in violence associated with the repercussions of attacks and criminality perpetrated by bandits.

These actors and communities can be engaged through dialogue, disarmament, and state protection, alongside an emphasis on recourse to the law and the avoidance of stereotyping that creates chains of serial attacks and counter-attacks resulting in killings and displacement while banditry flourishes.

But there is a second group: heavily armed, profit-driven bandit networks responsible for mass killings as hired mercenaries; serial kidnappings of students, citizens and expatriates; cattle rustling; attacks on schools and hospitals to cripple education and healthcare service delivery; attacks and killings of worshippers at mosques and churches, as well as at markets, farms, and rivers during fishing; the burning of communities and territorial control; the displacement of communities; the enslavement of community members to run errands and service their logistical needs for petrol and food; and the conscription of others from these enslaved communities into armed banditry and other related crimes.

They impose protection levies on communities and levies for the clearing of farms, farming, and harvesting.

They engage in armed robbery, maintain informant networks that aid targeted kidnappings, and coerce communities to place their wards on routine sentry duty to report security force movements while forbidding them from volunteering information or responding to official inquiries—a directive enforced by the threat of execution.

They are also involved in illegal mining, procuring and trafficking in arms and drugs, carrying out joint operations and fusing with ideologically based terror groups, attacks on critical national infrastructure, and gender-based violence, including the impunity with which they make minors and married women into sex slaves, and attacks on security forces—carting away arms and committing other forms of violent attacks for monetary gain and objectives that undermine national security and Nigeria’s sovereignty.

These actors operate criminal franchises.

Kid-glove approaches

Appeasement or kid-glove approaches only strengthen them, as practical study shows they rush to embrace truces when weakened by the coercive power of the state, buying time to restock and rebalance their armoury.

Within this category are those they conscripted; if these individuals surrender voluntarily and give up their arms, it should be honoured while they are profiled, further disarmed, and processed as guaranteed by law and protocols.

Advocates of dialogue

Advocates of dialogue often underestimate the intelligence advantage held by security agencies.

Lawful interception, human intelligence networks, and post-operation verification provide a far clearer picture of bandit intentions than any forest-level engagement.

For those familiar with security management trends, these capabilities provide intelligence agencies with crucial advantages.

They enable the collection of real-time details and background intelligence on armed groups, putting strategic communications, tactics, and decoys at the agencies’ fingertips—all without the knowledge of the groups themselves or of the commenting public.

Bandits stage theatrical performances for emissaries: choreographed displays of arms, rehearsed grievances, emotional appeals.

These are psychological operations designed to conceal their real motive, which is fundamentally criminal and nothing more.

What emissaries hear is not truth—it is an emotional narrative, as many advocates do not engage in post-intelligence verification that security agencies conduct and from which they glean actionable intelligence.

From Maitatsine, Boko Haram, and now banditry

Nigeria has paid dearly for ignoring early warning signs: Maitatsine, Boko Haram, and now banditry.

Each followed the same trajectory—dismissal, appeasement, escalation, catastrophe. Recent statistics underline the cost.

Banditry Statistics

According to a report issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in December 2024, which calls for deeper reflection on the economy of banditry, between May 2023 and April 2024, the nation recorded more than 600,000 deaths from insecurity, with 614,937 citizens killed nationwide.

The North-West had the highest figure with 206,030, followed by the North-East with 188,992, while the least was recorded in the South-West at 15,693.

The Bureau, in the said report which has not been countered, added that 2,235,954 Nigerians were kidnapped and a total of ₦2,231,772,563,507 (approximately $1,438,040,707) was paid in ransom.

The report stated that the North-West remained dominant in Nigeria’s kidnap-for-ransom landscape, recording 425 incidents, or 42.6 per cent of total cases nationwide.

The region also accounted for 2,938 victims, representing 62.2 per cent of all abducted persons.

This report and the recent one issued by SBM Intelligence in December 2025 are worrisome, presenting a clear scenario and a sign that the nation must tread with caution.

Banditry in Northern Nigeria is not a misunderstanding to be resolved through sentiment and politicking.

It is a national security threat that demands conceptual clarity, differentiated responses, and state resolve.

Dialogue has a place—but only where actors are willing to genuinely disengage.

Criminal enterprises masquerading as aggrieved must be confronted with lawful, proportionate, and decisive force. Nigeria’s future security depends not on emotional understanding, but on strategic honesty.

To move forward, Nigeria must formally abandon the tendency to treat “bandits” as a single category.

A National Threat Differentiation Doctrine

A national threat differentiation doctrine should be adopted across federal and state security architecture, clearly distinguishing between low-risk armed non-state actors, who are defensive and grievance-driven, and high-risk entrepreneurial bandit networks, which are profit-driven, transnationally connected, and heavily armed criminal franchises.

This distinction should guide who may be engaged, who must be disarmed, and who must be confronted with the might of the state.

If emotional narratives continue to override intelligence, law, and experience, the country risks repeating the very mistakes that produced its gravest security catastrophes

Without this clarity, dialogue and force will continue to be applied blindly, with counterproductive results.

Dialogue, reconciliation, and reintegration

Consequently, dialogue, reconciliation, and reintegration must be surgically applied, not morally universalised. Engagement should be limited to individuals who do not engage in kidnapping for ransom, do not command armed groups, have no history of mass killings or sexual violence, and are willing to submit to biometric registration, vetting, and monitoring.

Such processes must be embedded within formal Demobilisation, Disarmament and Reintegration (DDR) frameworks, not ad hoc political expediency arrangements. Any negotiation with high-value bandit leaders constitutes strategic appeasement and should be reconsidered.

Bandit Economy

The bandit economy survives on cash flow.

Therefore, payments by communities for “peace,” protection, access to farms, mining, or ceasefires must be officially discouraged because they are indirect terror financing and a source of oxygen for the crisis.

Community Protections

Communities must be protected so that survival payments and ransom do not become their only option, and networks in communities involved in ceasefire payments or facilitation ought to be dismantled.

Ending violence requires cutting revenue, and no line enabling or sustaining a revenue source should be taken lightly.

For entrenched, profit-driven bandit groups, force must be lawful, precise, relentless, and intelligence-led. Operations should prioritise command nodes, arms supply chains, logistics corridors, financial intermediaries, and forest-based staging areas.

This is not collective punishment; it is targeted state enforcement of the monopoly of violence.

The Kaduna-bound train attack of 2022 and similar incidents demonstrate a dangerous convergence between bandit networks and ideological terrorist elements.

Nigeria must treat this convergence as an early-stage insurgency risk, disrupt funding overlaps, shared training, and weapons transfers, and prevent bandit networks from evolving into full-spectrum terrorist organisations, as happened with Boko Haram.

History shows the cost of ignoring this phase is catastrophic.

Bandits thrive where the state is absent. Security operations must be followed immediately by permanent security presence, the reopening of schools and health facilities, the restoration of markets and rural livelihoods, and the reinstatement of administrative control through courts and civil authority. Clearing operations without holding and governing will only recycle violence.

Furthermore, the state must lead a deliberate narrative reset.

Official communication should describe banditry as criminal violence—a threat to the common good that must be addressed.

Wrong Media Profiling

Media framing that profiles entire communities must be actively discouraged, and law enforcement actions must be visibly even-handed. While community self-defence emerged from necessity, its excesses escalated violence.

The security outfits being established by some states must be regulated and trained in human rights and rules of engagement, placed under clear legal authority, and held accountable for abuses. Unregulated activities compound the crisis and fuel cycles of attacks.

Nigeria’s history—Maitatsine, Boko Haram, now banditry—reveals a pattern of ignored warnings. Intelligence assessments must translate into early action, not delayed consensus.

Political hesitations

Political hesitation in the face of clear threat indicators must be treated as a national security failure. Prevention is always cheaper—in lives, legitimacy, and resources—than containment.

Conclusion

Finally, Nigeria must stop debating banditry primarily as a sociological misunderstanding.

It is a violent criminal economy, and a threat to national security and all the negative consequences earlier discussed.

The central lesson from the foregoing is simple: If emotional narratives continue to override intelligence, law, and experience, the country risks repeating the very mistakes that produced its gravest security catastrophes.

Aruwan is a postgraduate student at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria.

aruwansamuel@aol.com

Continue Reading

Opinions

Nigeria’s Democracy Under Siege: Opposition Faces Existential Threats

Thankfully, patriotic leaders saw this danger early and chose resistance over silence by rallying around the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the nucleus of a credible national alternative.

Published

on

By

110 Views

By Paul Ibe *

For nearly three years, Nigerians have endured one of the harshest periods in recent history—an era defined by punishing economic policies and shrinking democratic space under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

True to form, this administration has not only inflicted widespread hardship but has pursued a calculated effort to eliminate political alternatives.

The objective is clear: a creeping, de facto one-party state.

Perhaps the Tinubu administration’s most disturbing “achievement” has been the systematic weakening of opposition parties, leaving the All Progressives Congress—despite its manifest failures—standing alone by default, not by merit.

Thankfully, patriotic leaders saw this danger early and chose resistance over silence by rallying around the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the nucleus of a credible national alternative.

Predictably, agents aligned with the Presidency are now attempting to destabilize the ADC from the outside—issuing reckless prescriptions about its internal affairs, particularly the choice of a presidential candidate.

Let it be stated plainly: the ADC is on a national rescue mission. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, alongside other committed patriots, is central to this effort.

Any call—overt or covert—for Atiku to “step aside” is a gift to authoritarian ambition and a betrayal of the Nigerian people.

At present, the ADC is focused on building strong ward, local government, and state structures nationwide.

The ADC has consistently affirmed its commitment to an open, transparent, and competitive process for selecting its flag bearer.

APC proxies and external meddlers have no standing to intimidate, blackmail, or sabotage this democratic resolve.

At present, the ADC is focused on building strong ward, local government, and state structures nationwide.

Disruptors and infiltrators must allow the party to do this essential work without interference.The party remains open and welcoming to all genuine opposition figures.

This inclusiveness—not coercion—is the soul of democracy.When the time comes, all qualified aspirants will present themselves freely. No one is stepping down.

If anyone should step aside, it is President Tinubu—whose leadership has become a national liability.

The recent public declaration of ADC membership by former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi in Enugu, the political heartbeat of the Southeast, triggered open boasts by a serving minister and presidential aides about plans to undermine the party.

Their fear is evident. Let there be no ambiguity: the ADC is determined to end the misfortune imposed by the Tinubu-led APC.

No amount of intimidation, intrigue, or sabotage will derail this rescue mission. Nigeria will not surrender its democracy without a fight.

  • * Paul Ibe, Atiku Media Office Abuja , write this piece
Continue Reading

Opinions

Edo Broadcasting Service in the Dock By Michael Odigbe

Today, you hardly know that EBS is owned by the government because the broadcast station criticises it whenever it errs.

Published

on

By

84 Views

Cover image: Michael Odigbe

With the support of Governor Monday Okpebholo, including funds, moral stimulus, and freedom to operate, Aledeh has been able to transform EBS into a desired, competitive global brand.

It has been over a year since Mr Sulaiman Aledeh became the managing director of the state-owned Edo Broadcasting Service (EBS), Benin.

He met the outfit in moribund mode.

However, with the support of Governor Monday Okpebholo, including funds, moral stimulus, and freedom to operate, Aledeh has been able to transform EBS into a desired, competitive global brand.

Before the coming of Aledeh, the EBS of the Obaseki era was a mere government propaganda machine and a vicious Alsatian attack dog of opponents.

Now, a new sheriff, Aledeh, is at the helm of EBS.The old unprofessionalism of staff is gone for good.

Therefore, today, you hardly know that EBS is owned by the government because the broadcast station criticises it whenever it errs.

No more hiding place for the government’s inanities. EBS is not yet on par with the BBCs of the world, but it is steadily working hard to catch up with them.

However, the station requires a transmitter each for its Ihevbe and Ivue substations for enhanced coverage.

One of these transmitters arrived from China recently and is being installed without delay.

This suggests that a visible effort is being made to establish the necessary broadcast infrastructure for improved performance.

In addition, EBS has repackaged its programmes, providing people-friendly content with deep insights, enhanced analytical conversations, quality delivery, and an expanded time scope, thanks to the efforts of Aledeh, who has a proven record of being well-versed in a wide range of topics.

This aligns with the principles of mass communication practice worldwide.

One of the new iconic programmes of EBS is the Morning Drive, powered by a crack team of Aledeh himself, St. Patrick, Chris Enabulele, Desmond, AJ, Belema, Uju, Ofure and Mathew Ajakaiye.

Unknown to critics, the team is not a crowd but a whole house of intelligent men and women intentionally assembled for quality conversations that incorporate different perspectives.

Another key point in constituting the team is to promote the Governor Monday Okpebholo’s policy of inclusivity in governance at the micro EBS level.

For instance, with Belema, Ofure, and Uju in Morning Drive, there is female gender representation.

And by having Desmond on the programme, a person with a visible physical challenge is brought on board in Morning Drive.

So, let us stop focusing on the programme’s population and instead concentrate on the cumulative conversational value of each team member, which has been top-notch so far.Indeed, what we have in Morning Drive is not a case of ‘too many cooks spoil the broth ‘.

Instead, it is a case of a plurality of good heads being better than two or three equally good ones.

At this juncture, I must not fail to say that the deliberate inclusion of Desmond, Chris Enabulele and Mathew Ajakaiye in Morning Drive is very revealing. See, although physically challenged, Desmond is never found wanting in the knowledge content of the ideas he speaks on self-assuredly and fearlessly. Chris Enabulele!! Spinning good music is his ‘bad’ habit. But hold it. Just listen to his contributions in Morning, Drive, and you will marvel at his expansive grasp of past and current world events. Never think he is just a music machine.

Additionally, it was exciting to meet Mathew Ajakaiye on Morning Drive. He not only anchors the sports segment of the programme with an array of scintillating information and analysis, but he also stays on to provide valuable insights into any discussion on the table. He is a genuinely global person. All this narrative about Desmond, Chris Enabulele and Mathew Ajakaiye is proof positive that it is a logical fallacy to judge a book by its cover without reading it.However, I need to point out here that the programme should avoid teasing personal jokes targeted at members, as they often end up exposing confidential biographies to the public

in these days of a digital lifestyle. No one has the statutory right to openly discuss false or accurate information about a person with a veneer of a sarcastic joke.There is a plethora of jokes out there in the limitless universe that can add comfort, richness, and organic entertainment value to Morning Drive, currently the leading programme in the South-South of Nigeria, alongside Drive O’Clock, another superlative baby of EBS.Drive O’Clock, conceptualised by innovative Aledeh and operationalised by a triangular intelligent crew of Seriki, Englishman, as well as Soji Abok, is today a pioneer in Africa in impact journalism, delivered wi

h a local Nigerian energetic flavour.It is achieving its mandate of liberating the populace from the capitalist cruelty of human rights abusers.All said, my counsel is that the crew should realise that listeners and viewers of the programme have the right to criticise the presenters, even with malice.Therefore, they should not return the abuse in kind, but instead deploy hard facts, information, and education to counter the mischief of wicked critics.With Aledeh in charge at EBS, the Tuesday night reggae programme of Kingsley Ogbebor, as well as the Sunday afternoon programme of Agbakpan, and the late Sunday evening highlife programme of

Omoaka, have become more robust in terms of content, texture, and presentation style.As of now, I consider the Saturday programme, Una Good Morning Show, as a weak link in the success story of EBS. The programme is not well presented by Rev Orukpe Otubor. It is unacceptable for him to rely on Idele’s deficiencies in conversations about the programme when it is clear that Idele habitually injects personal trivialities into serious discussions on which he lacks relevant information and analytical prowess.More disappointing is that Idele often loses his attention span and struggles to stick to discussion topics, a characteristic trait that

eads him to speak out of turn. He is incorrigible, never submitting to cognitive reconditioning by Otubor, the presenter, to enable him to align with the high standards that Aledeh is setting for the new EBS.So, it is time Idele is weeded out with Aledeh’s winnowing fork so that he doesn’t do more damage to the UNA GOOD MORNING programme started long ago in 1980 by enigmatic Pa Felix Ogie.The producer of the programme needs to ensure that people like Robert Aiyanyi, Gladys Ighalo, Hope Bazuaye, and other talented individuals are recast into the programme after receiving proper education on the editorial policy of the new EBS under Aledeh

an EBS today is on the move. It is not only proper infrastructure that is needed to excel. Additionally, the broadcast station requires high-quality programmes, producers, and presenters to achieve and sustain success.

Continue Reading

Trending