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How were Donald Trump’s tariffs calculated?

In total, more than 100 countries are covered by the new tariff regime.

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Charts credit: White House/ BBC Verify

US President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from most countries being imported into the US, with even higher rates for what he calls the ”worst offenders”.

But how exactly were these tariffs – essentially taxes on imports – worked out? BBC Verify has been looking at the calculations behind the numbers.

What were the calculations?

When Trump presented a giant cardboard chart detailing the tariffs in the White House Rose Garden it was initially assumed that the charges were based on a combination of existing tariffs and other trade barriers (like regulations).

But later, the White House published what might look like a complicated mathematical formula.

But the actual exercise boiled down to simple maths: take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two.

A trade deficit occurs when a country buys (imports) more physical products from other countries than it sells (exports) to them.

For example, the US buys more goods from China than it sells to them – there is a goods deficit of $295bn.

The total amount of goods it buys from China is $440bn. Dividing 295 by 440 gets you to 67% and you divide that by two and round up. Therefore the tariff imposed on China is 34%.

Similarly, when it applied to the EU, the White House’s formula resulted in a 20% tariff.

Are the Trump tariffs ‘reciprocal’?

Many commentators have pointed out that these tariffs are not reciprocal.

Reciprocal would mean they were based on what countries already charge the US in the form of existing tariffs, plus non-tariff barriers (things like regulations that drive up costs).

But the White House’s official methodology document makes clear that they have not calculated this for all the countries on which they have imposed tariffs.

Instead the tariff rate was calculated on the basis that it would eliminate the US’s goods trade deficit with each country.

Trump has broken away from the formula in imposing tariffs on countries that buy more goods from the US than they sell to it.

For example the US does not currently run goods trade deficit with the UK. Yet the UK has been hit with a 10% tariff.

In total, more than 100 countries are covered by the new tariff regime.‘

Lots of broader impacts’Trump believes the US is getting a bad deal in global trade.

In his view, other countries flood US markets with cheap goods – which hurts US companies and costs jobs.

At the same time, these countries are putting up barriers that make US products less competitive abroad.So by using tariffs to eliminate trade deficits, Trump hopes to revive US manufacturing and protect jobs.

‎‎‎But will this new tariff regime achieve the desired outcome?

BBC Verify has spoken to a number of economists. The overwhelming view is that while the tariffs might reduce the goods deficit between the US and individual countries, they will not reduce the overall deficit between the US and rest of the world.

“Yes, it will reduce bilateral trade deficits between the US and these countries.

But there will obviously be lots of broader impacts that are not captured in the calculation”, says Professor Jonathan Portes of King’s College, London.

That’s because the US’ existing overall deficit is not driven solely by trade barriers, but by how the US economy works.For one,

Americans spend and invest more than they earn and that gap means the US buys more from the world than it sells. So as long as that continues, the US may continue to keep running a deficit despite increasing tariffs with it global trading partners.

Some trade deficits can also exist for a number of legitimate reasons – not just down to tariffs. For example, buying food that is easier or cheaper to produce in other countries’ climates.

Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics said: “The formula is reverse engineered to rationalise charging tariffs on countries with which the US has a trade deficit.

There is no economic rationale for doing this and it will cost the global economy dearly.”

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JUST IN: NDIC to pay first tranche of liquidation dividends to Heritage Bank depositors in April

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The Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation, NDIC, says it would begin the payment of the first tranche of liquidation dividends to depositors of Heritage Bank from April.

The Managing Director of NDIC, Bello Hassan, made this disclosure on Wednesday at the NDIC Special Day at the ongoing 36th Enugu International Trade Fair.

Hassan, who was represented by the South-East Coordinator of NDIC, Pamela Robert, said that NDIC was in collaboration with the CBN to maintain stability in the banking sector, enforce compliance with banking regulations and exercise effective oversight over insured deposit-taking institutions.

He further stated that NDIC have commenced preparations to pay the first tranche of liquidation dividends this month of April.

Recall that the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, revoked the operating licence of Heritage Bank on June 3, 2024.

According to Hassan, the approach of paying insured deposits while concurrently realising assets and recovering loans ensured that no depositor was left behind.

He stressed that as more recoveries were made, subsequent tranches of liquidation dividends would follow.

“Our record in bank liquidation is reassuring. NDIC has successfully declared fully liquidation dividends to depositors of 20 previously failed banks.

“This reflects our unwavering commitment to depositor protection and our proven capacity to manage bank failures effectively.

“Therefore, I urge depositors of closed banks, particularly Heritage Bank, who have not yet received their payments, to come forward and provide necessary documentation supporting ownership of the account,” he said.

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Fuel prices may fall as FEC renews naira-for-crude deal

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Oil marketers have stated that Nigerians will soon heave a sigh of relief as the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, will drastically reduce due to the continuation of crude and refined product sales in the naira initiative by the Federal Government.

They also stated that a major player in the sector, Dangote Refinery, is anticipated to lower its petrol loading costs by the end of this week, further contributing to the reduction in fuel prices.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, reassured the public of the forthcoming price drop while commenting on the Federal Executive Council’s directive regarding the naira-for-crude agreement, announced on Wednesday.

The official, however, couldn’t project the expected amount as the price at which the government will sell its products remains unclear.

This was as the National Publicity Secretary of Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, emphasised the need for greater involvement of other local refiners in the initiative, stressing that broader participation would enhance the economic benefits and strengthen the impact of the deal.

On Wednesday, the Federal Executive Council, after an initial delay, directed the full implementation of the suspended Naira-for-Crude agreement with local refiners.

It said the initiative with local refineries is not a temporary measure but a “key policy directive designed to support sustainable local refining.”

The Ministry of Finance disclosed this in a statement published on its official X handle titled, “Update on the Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira Initiative.”

The statement was released following a meeting on Tuesday between the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, and representatives from Dangote Refinery, a major beneficiary of the agreement, to review progress and address ongoing implementation matters.

The meeting was attended by Edun, the Chairman of the Implementation Committee; the Chairman of the Technical Sub-Committee and Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service, Zacch Adedeji; the Chief Financial Officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Dapo Segun; the Coordinator of NNPC Refineries; Management of NNPC Trading; representatives of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals.

Also present were representatives of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigerian Ports Authority, Afreximbank, and the Secretary of the Committee, Hauwa Ibrahim.

As part of moves to reduce the strain on the US dollar and guarantee price stability of petroleum products, the FEC in July 2024 directed the national oil company to sell crude oil to Dangote Refinery in naira and not in United States’ greenback for an initial phase of six months.

The sale of crude oil and refined petroleum products in naira to local refineries commenced on October 1, 2024 to improve supply, save the country millions of dollars in petroleum products imports, and ultimately reduce pump prices.

However, in March, Dangote refinery said it had temporarily halted the sale of petroleum products in naira. The refinery said the decision to halt sales in naira was “necessary to avoid a mismatch between our sales proceeds and our crude oil purchase obligations, which are currently denominated in U.S. dollars”.

Immediately after the announcement, private depot owners effected an increase in loading cost and effectively raised pump price from around N860 to about N960 per litre, making consumers pay at least N70 more than what it used to cost them to buy a litre of the premium commodity days earlier.

But in a fresh update on Wednesday, the committee said the policy is not temporary but a long-term plan to cut Nigeria’s dependence on foreign exchange for petroleum.

It added that the initiative is not a temporary or time-bound intervention but a key policy directive designed to support sustainable local refining and bolster energy security.

The statement read, “The Technical Sub-Committee on the Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira initiative convened an update meeting on Tuesday to review progress and address ongoing implementation matters.

“The stakeholders reaffirmed the government’s continued commitment to the full implementation of this strategic initiative, as directed by the Federal Executive Council.“

Thus, the Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira initiative is not a temporary or time-bound intervention, but a key policy directive designed to support sustainable local refining, bolster energy security, and reduce reliance on foreign exchange in the domestic petroleum market.”

The policy, which mandates the transaction of crude oil and refined petroleum products in Naira, is aimed at strengthening the country’s economic sovereignty, enhancing local refining capacity, and stabilising the foreign exchange market by reducing the demand for dollars in domestic petroleum transactions.

The ministry explained that this policy is structured to foster energy security and encourage investment in domestic refining infrastructure.

While acknowledging that the transition involves complexities, the government admitted that existing challenges are being systematically addressed.

“As with any major policy shift, the committee acknowledges that implementation challenges may arise from time to time.“

However, such issues are being actively addressed through coordinated efforts among all parties. The initiative remains in effect and will continue for as long as it aligns with the public interest and supports national economic objectives,” the statement concluded.

Commenting, industry players said the resumption of Naira-denominated crude sales would reduce the strain on the US dollar and guarantee the price stability of petroleum products.

The IPMAN national publicity secretary, in his expert opinion, welcomed the recent development, noting that it reflects the President’s willingness to listen to stakeholders, which is a positive sign for the country’s energy sector. He said the deal was always expected to be implemented.

Ukadike said, “We have always mentioned that the deal was definitely going to be implemented. We don’t know the details of the new agreement.

IPMAN welcomes the latest development and it shows Mr. President has listening ears with this kind of output from the government. It shows that inputs from individuals and stakeholders matter a lot.

The policy doesn’t deter anyone who wants to import petroleum products. But the most important thing is that they should go ahead and ensure that the conclusion affects prices in the market.

“With this new decision taken by the government, I also believe earnestly that just with the complaint of marketers crying of huge losses caused by a sudden drop in price. Their plea is also yielding fruit.”

He added that with the positive development and recent fall in the price of crude, the 650,000 is poised to reduce its loading price downward before the end of the current week.

“I believe that from now till the end of the week, the Dangote refinery will come up with a new price. They can’t complain of having old stock because that is not the best practice internationally.”

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NACCIMA President Calls for Economic Sovereignty at Vanguard Economic Discourse

The current U.S. administration’s focus on isolationism and trade wars has led to a reevaluation of America’s long-standing alliances, leaving many nations, including Nigeria, to grapple with the complexities of a shifting world order.

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“For Nigeria, these developments underscore the necessity of prioritizing economic sovereignty and a shift to a homegrown democracy that is both viable and affordable.

We need a political structure that can withstand external pressures and remain resilient in the face of global shifts.”

”Mr Dele Oye, the President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce Industries, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), said today, during the Vanguard 2025 Economic Discourse, held in Lagos.

Oye, who is the Chairman of the event , said that the current economic situation of Nigeria has brought the country to a crossroad, where strategy is required for success.said it is possible for Nigeria to reshape its economic challenges and turned the adversity to opportunity.

He said : “Nigeria must succeed and be strategic; we are at crossroads where we can reshape our current destiny, where adversity can give rise to opportunity.”

Oye had earlier offered insights to Vanguard on Nigeria’s economic outlook 2025.

His words: “As we navigate today’s economic landscape, we face significant headwinds, including persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and disruptions in global supply chains.

However, we also have promising tailwinds: advancements in technology, emerging trade partnerships, and a vibrant, entrepreneurial youth.

The balance between these challenges and opportunities will shape Nigeria’s future, highlighting the need for thoughtful policies that harness our potential while addressing the risks ahead.”

He stated: “We find ourselves at a pivotal moment in history, with profound global changes redefining relationships and power dynamics.

The current U.S. administration’s focus on isolationism and trade wars has led to a reevaluation of America’s long-standing alliances, leaving many nations, including Nigeria, to grapple with the complexities of a shifting world order.

The resurgence of Russia from a backdrop of U.S. policy shifts reminds us of the importance of adaptability in diplomacy.

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