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How were Donald Trump’s tariffs calculated?

In total, more than 100 countries are covered by the new tariff regime.

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Charts credit: White House/ BBC Verify

US President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from most countries being imported into the US, with even higher rates for what he calls the ”worst offenders”.

But how exactly were these tariffs – essentially taxes on imports – worked out? BBC Verify has been looking at the calculations behind the numbers.

What were the calculations?

When Trump presented a giant cardboard chart detailing the tariffs in the White House Rose Garden it was initially assumed that the charges were based on a combination of existing tariffs and other trade barriers (like regulations).

But later, the White House published what might look like a complicated mathematical formula.

But the actual exercise boiled down to simple maths: take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two.

A trade deficit occurs when a country buys (imports) more physical products from other countries than it sells (exports) to them.

For example, the US buys more goods from China than it sells to them – there is a goods deficit of $295bn.

The total amount of goods it buys from China is $440bn. Dividing 295 by 440 gets you to 67% and you divide that by two and round up. Therefore the tariff imposed on China is 34%.

Similarly, when it applied to the EU, the White House’s formula resulted in a 20% tariff.

Are the Trump tariffs ‘reciprocal’?

Many commentators have pointed out that these tariffs are not reciprocal.

Reciprocal would mean they were based on what countries already charge the US in the form of existing tariffs, plus non-tariff barriers (things like regulations that drive up costs).

But the White House’s official methodology document makes clear that they have not calculated this for all the countries on which they have imposed tariffs.

Instead the tariff rate was calculated on the basis that it would eliminate the US’s goods trade deficit with each country.

Trump has broken away from the formula in imposing tariffs on countries that buy more goods from the US than they sell to it.

For example the US does not currently run goods trade deficit with the UK. Yet the UK has been hit with a 10% tariff.

In total, more than 100 countries are covered by the new tariff regime.‘

Lots of broader impacts’Trump believes the US is getting a bad deal in global trade.

In his view, other countries flood US markets with cheap goods – which hurts US companies and costs jobs.

At the same time, these countries are putting up barriers that make US products less competitive abroad.So by using tariffs to eliminate trade deficits, Trump hopes to revive US manufacturing and protect jobs.

‎‎‎But will this new tariff regime achieve the desired outcome?

BBC Verify has spoken to a number of economists. The overwhelming view is that while the tariffs might reduce the goods deficit between the US and individual countries, they will not reduce the overall deficit between the US and rest of the world.

“Yes, it will reduce bilateral trade deficits between the US and these countries.

But there will obviously be lots of broader impacts that are not captured in the calculation”, says Professor Jonathan Portes of King’s College, London.

That’s because the US’ existing overall deficit is not driven solely by trade barriers, but by how the US economy works.For one,

Americans spend and invest more than they earn and that gap means the US buys more from the world than it sells. So as long as that continues, the US may continue to keep running a deficit despite increasing tariffs with it global trading partners.

Some trade deficits can also exist for a number of legitimate reasons – not just down to tariffs. For example, buying food that is easier or cheaper to produce in other countries’ climates.

Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics said: “The formula is reverse engineered to rationalise charging tariffs on countries with which the US has a trade deficit.

There is no economic rationale for doing this and it will cost the global economy dearly.”

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CPPE Tasks Govt to Fix Cost of Living Crisis Amid GDP Growth

Reacting on Nigeria’s third quarter 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.98 percent , CPPE said that it’s laudable, but called for policy interventions to fix the cost of living crisis.

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The Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE) tasks the government to ensure that GDP Growth and macroeconomic stability translate into real improvements in citizens’ welfare.

Reacting on Nigeria’s third quarter 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.98 percent , CPPE said that it’s laudable, but called for policy interventions to fix the cost of living crisis.

Dr Muda Yusuf, CEO of the CPPE, notes that despite the improvment in the GDP, the cost-of-living crisis remains a concern .

He said: ” While disinflation is underway and prices of some food items and manufactured products are easing, the social outcomes of economic reforms continue to weigh on households.

” It is therefore imperative for policymaking to prioritise targeted interventions to address the uneasiness around the cost of living and ensure that GDP Growth and macroeconomic stability translate into real improvements in citizens’ welfare—particularly for vulnerable groups.”

To consolidate the gains recorded in Q3 and unlock stronger, more inclusive growth, Dr Yusuf, said that the following policy interventions are critical:

Reduce Structural Bottlenecks

Address energy supply constraints, reduce logistics costs, improve port efficiency, and accelerate transport infrastructure development.

Mitigate the Cost-of-Living Crisis

Implement targeted social interventions and remove structural impediments that elevate consumer prices.

All tiers of government [local, state and federal] must sustain targeted interventions in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, transportation and energy to fix the cost of living crisis.  

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Dangote Targets Nigeria Festive Season Monthly Supply of 1.5 billion litres of PMS

This represents 50 million litres per day. We are formally notifying the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) of this commitment.

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery says that it has concluded arrangements to supply over 50 million litres of petrol per day into the Nigerian market this festive season (December to January).

The company said that the decision was taken to ensure that there is no shortage of the product during the festive season.

This translates to 1.5 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) for the month of December.

The same amount of product will also be supplied in January 2026, it was added.

President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, announced the plans.

Dangote said: “In line with our commitment to national well-being, and consistent with our track record of ensuring a holiday season free of fuel scarcity, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery will supply 1.5 billion litres of PMS to the Nigerian market this month.

This represents 50 million litres per day. We are formally notifying the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) of this commitment.

We will supply another 1.5 billion litres in January and increase to 1.75 billion litres in February, which translates to over 60 million litres per day.”

Speaking during a visit by the South-South Development Commission (SSDC) to the refinery and the Dangote Fertiliser complex, he stated that the facility currently has adequate stock and is producing between 40 and 45 million litres of PMS daily.

He added that the daily supply of 50 million litres should dispel long-standing claims that domestic refineries lack the capacity to meet national demand.

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Dangote Partners Honeywell International to Boost Refinery Capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day

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Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest single-train petroleum refinery, has signed a landmark contract with U.S. industrial giant Honeywell International to execute a significant capacity upgrade that will boost the facility’s crude processing capability from the current 650,000 barrels per day to an ambitious 1.4 million barrels per day.

The multi-billion-dollar project, described by sources close to the deal as one of the largest refinery expansion initiatives globally in recent years, will involve the installation of advanced process units, automation systems, and energy-efficiency technologies supplied and integrated by Honeywell UOP and Honeywell Process Solutions.

Aliko Dangote, President and CEO of Dangote Industries Limited, confirmed the partnership, stating: “This strategic collaboration with Honeywell will position the Dangote Refinery as one of the top five largest refineries in the world by capacity.

The upgrade will not only enhance our ability to meet Nigeria’s complete refined products demand but also establish the refinery as a major export hub for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals across Africa and beyond.

”The expansion is expected to be implemented in phases, with key units including additional crude distillation, hydrocracking, and catalytic reforming modules.

Honeywell’s proprietary technologies are anticipated to improve yield of high-value products while reducing energy consumption and emissions.Upon completion, the 1.4 million bpd Dangote Refinery will surpass the current global top-tier facilities such as Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar Refinery (1.24 million bpd) and Paraguay’s planned 1.2 million bpd project, cementing its status as the world’s largest single-train refinery.

The project is expected to create thousands of direct and indirect jobs during the construction and commissioning phases and further reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products.

A spokesperson for Honeywell confirmed the award, saying the company was “honored to partner with Dangote on this transformative project that will reshape the African downstream landscape.

”Detailed timelines and the exact value of the contract were not disclosed, but industry analysts estimate the expansion could exceed $5–7 billion in total investment.

The statement said: Dangote Group is pleased to announce that it has entered into a strategic partnership with Honeywell International Inc to support the next phase of expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

This collaboration will provide advanced technology and services that will enable the refinery to increase its processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028, marking a major milestone in our long-term vision to build the world’s largest petroleum refining complex.

Through this agreement, Honeywell will supply specialised catalysts, equipment, and process technologies that will allow the refinery to process a broader slate of crude grades efficiently and to further enhance product quality and operational reliability.

Honeywell, a global Fortune 100 industrial and technology company, offers a wide portfolio of solutions across aviation, automotive, industrial automation, and advanced materials.

Honeywell’s division UOP has been a technology partner to Dangote since 2017, providing proprietary refining systems, catalyst regeneration equipment, high performance column trays, and heat exchanger technologies that support our best-in-class operations.

Dangote Group is also advancing its petrochemical footprint. As part of the wider collaboration, we are scaling our polypropylene capacity to 2.4 million metric tons annually using Honeywell’s Oleflex technology.

Polypropylene is a key industrial material widely used across packaging, manufacturing, and automotive applications.In addition to refining expansion, Dangote Group is progressing with the next phase of its fertiliser growth plan in Nigeria. We will increase our urea production capacity from 3 million metric tons to 9 million metric tons annually.

The existing plant consists of two trains of 1.5 million metric tons each. The expansion will add four additional trains to meet growing demand for high-quality fertiliser across Africa and global markets.

Dangote Group remains fully committed to delivering world-class industrial capacity, strengthening Nigeria’s energy security, and driving sustainable economic growth through long-term investment, innovation, and strategic global partnerships.

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