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How were Donald Trump’s tariffs calculated?

In total, more than 100 countries are covered by the new tariff regime.

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Charts credit: White House/ BBC Verify

US President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from most countries being imported into the US, with even higher rates for what he calls the ”worst offenders”.

But how exactly were these tariffs – essentially taxes on imports – worked out? BBC Verify has been looking at the calculations behind the numbers.

What were the calculations?

When Trump presented a giant cardboard chart detailing the tariffs in the White House Rose Garden it was initially assumed that the charges were based on a combination of existing tariffs and other trade barriers (like regulations).

But later, the White House published what might look like a complicated mathematical formula.

But the actual exercise boiled down to simple maths: take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two.

A trade deficit occurs when a country buys (imports) more physical products from other countries than it sells (exports) to them.

For example, the US buys more goods from China than it sells to them – there is a goods deficit of $295bn.

The total amount of goods it buys from China is $440bn. Dividing 295 by 440 gets you to 67% and you divide that by two and round up. Therefore the tariff imposed on China is 34%.

Similarly, when it applied to the EU, the White House’s formula resulted in a 20% tariff.

Are the Trump tariffs ‘reciprocal’?

Many commentators have pointed out that these tariffs are not reciprocal.

Reciprocal would mean they were based on what countries already charge the US in the form of existing tariffs, plus non-tariff barriers (things like regulations that drive up costs).

But the White House’s official methodology document makes clear that they have not calculated this for all the countries on which they have imposed tariffs.

Instead the tariff rate was calculated on the basis that it would eliminate the US’s goods trade deficit with each country.

Trump has broken away from the formula in imposing tariffs on countries that buy more goods from the US than they sell to it.

For example the US does not currently run goods trade deficit with the UK. Yet the UK has been hit with a 10% tariff.

In total, more than 100 countries are covered by the new tariff regime.‘

Lots of broader impacts’Trump believes the US is getting a bad deal in global trade.

In his view, other countries flood US markets with cheap goods – which hurts US companies and costs jobs.

At the same time, these countries are putting up barriers that make US products less competitive abroad.So by using tariffs to eliminate trade deficits, Trump hopes to revive US manufacturing and protect jobs.

‎‎‎But will this new tariff regime achieve the desired outcome?

BBC Verify has spoken to a number of economists. The overwhelming view is that while the tariffs might reduce the goods deficit between the US and individual countries, they will not reduce the overall deficit between the US and rest of the world.

“Yes, it will reduce bilateral trade deficits between the US and these countries.

But there will obviously be lots of broader impacts that are not captured in the calculation”, says Professor Jonathan Portes of King’s College, London.

That’s because the US’ existing overall deficit is not driven solely by trade barriers, but by how the US economy works.For one,

Americans spend and invest more than they earn and that gap means the US buys more from the world than it sells. So as long as that continues, the US may continue to keep running a deficit despite increasing tariffs with it global trading partners.

Some trade deficits can also exist for a number of legitimate reasons – not just down to tariffs. For example, buying food that is easier or cheaper to produce in other countries’ climates.

Thomas Sampson of the London School of Economics said: “The formula is reverse engineered to rationalise charging tariffs on countries with which the US has a trade deficit.

There is no economic rationale for doing this and it will cost the global economy dearly.”

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Business

Dangote Refinery Debunks shutdown rumour, says PMS’s gantry price remains N850

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has firmly dismissed recent reports alleging a shutdown of its operations, reassuring the public and market stakeholders that its activities remain fully active and stable.

In an official statement by the Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, the refinery’s management categorically denied claims that truck loading has been suspended or that production has been interrupted. “The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is fully operational. There has been no shutdown, nor has there been any suspension of truck loading activities” the statement reads.

The refinery also clarified that the intermittent sale of Residual Catalytic Oil (RCO) is part of normal business operations, often involving large parcel sales, which explains the recent fuel oil tender.

According to the management, Dangote Petroleum Refinery consistently supplies over 40 million litres of PMS daily, alongside steady volumes of Automotive Gas Oil (diesel). These supplies continue unabated, despite speculation suggesting otherwise.

“As the world’s largest single-train petroleum refinery, the facility employs advanced predictive and preventive maintenance protocols to ensure uninterrupted operations. Routine maintenance activities are standard and do not impact the overall fuel supply” the statement further clarified.

In response to speculation about potential supply shortages and price increases, the refinery challenged those sponsoring the rumour to place orders for daily deliveries of up to 40 million litres of PMS and 15 million litres of diesel for the next 90 days.

“To those who believe this misinformation and anticipate a bullish market, we extend a challenge: We invite interested buyers to place immediate orders for up to 40 million litres of PMS daily and 15 million litres of AGO daily, for the next 90 days, with full upfront payment. Should any supposed supply shortage occur, these buyers would be well-positioned to benefit from the predicted market rise,” it added.

The refinery reaffirmed its commitment to transparency and Nigeria’s energy security, urging the public to disregard unfounded rumours sponsored by unscrupulous and unpatriotic individuals seeking to undermine the country’s energy independence for their own selfish interests, including the importation of substandard fuels under the false pretext of domestic supply shortages.

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Ikeja Electric releases new prepaid meter prices

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Ikeja Electric has released updated prices for prepaid meters, which take effect from August 6, 2025. The revised rates cover both single-phase and three-phase meter types and are inclusive of VAT.

The revised rates were announced on the disco’s official X account on Friday.

The company announced that “MBH Power Ltd’s one-phase costs ₦135,987.50,  while the three-phase costs ₦226,825.00. Turbo Energy Ltd’s one-phase costs ₦145,608.75, while the three-phase costs ₦236,903.13.

“Aries Electric Ltd’s one-phase costs ₦145,125.00, and the three-phase costs ₦258,000.00. Mojec Asset Management Company Ltd’s one-phase costs ₦135,718.75, and the three-phase costs ₦226,825.00.

“Paktim Metering Nig. Ltd, the one-phase meter costs ₦137,600.00, while the three-phase meter costs ₦233,275.00. Holley Metering Ltd’s one-phase meter costs ₦133,854.03, three-phase meter costs ₦219,497.09.

“CIG Metering Assets Nigeria Ltd’s one-phase meter costs ₦150,500.00, New Hampshire Capital Ltd’s one-phase meter costs ₦133,300.00 and the three-phase costs ₦231,125.00.”

The electricity distribution company noted that the prices are “valid subject to meter availability,” adding that the changes are part of its effort to ensure customers have access to up-to-date information on meter procurement.

The company also assured customers that the new pricing reflects the latest approved rates for meter providers under its Meter Asset Provider scheme.

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Global electricity demand to keep growing robustly through 2026 despite economic headwinds – IEA

Renewables are expected to overtake coal as the world’s largest source of electricity as early as 2025 or by 2026 at the latest, depending on weather and fuel price trends.

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Global electricity demand is set to rise by 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026 – more than twice as fast as total energy demand growth over the same period, the IEA’s Electricity Mid-Year Update finds.

The new report underscores the increasing demand for electricity to power factories and appliances, keep buildings cool, operate growing fleets of data centres, run electric vehicles and more.

While the latest forecasts for global electricity demand growth this year and next are a deceleration from the 4.4% surge recorded in 2024, they remain well above the 2015-2023 average of 2.6%.

Renewables are expected to overtake coal as the world’s largest source of electricity as early as 2025 or by 2026 at the latest, depending on weather and fuel price trends.

At the same time, nuclear power output is expected to reach record highs, driven by reactor restarts in Japan, robust output in the United States and France, and new additions, mostly in Asia.

The steady increase in gas-fired power generation is set to continue displacing coal and oil in the power sector in many regions.

As a result of these developments, carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation are currently forecast to plateau in 2025 and record a slight decline in 2026, although weather and economic conditions could affect that trajectory.

“The growth in global electricity demand is set to remain robust through 2026, despite an uncertain economic backdrop,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security.

“The strong expansion of renewables and nuclear is steadily reshaping electricity markets in many regions. But this must be matched by greater investment in grids, storage and other sources of flexibility to ensure power systems can meet the growing demand securely and affordably.”

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