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Global Oil Market Report – May 2025 by IEA

Based on the latest plans, OPEC+ will add 310 kb/d of extra supply this year and 150 kb/d in 2026.Refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are broadly unchanged from last month’s Report at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively.

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Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990 kb/d in 1Q25 to 650 kb/d for the remainder of the year as economic headwinds and record EV sales curb use.

International energy agency, made the disclosure in its Oil Market Report – May 2025

The report reads: ” Demand growth averages 740 kb/d in 2025 and 760 kb/d in 2026, despite accelerating OECD declines of -120 kb/d and -240 kb/d, respectively.

World oil supply looks on track to rise by 1.6 mb/d to 104.6 mb/d on average in 2025, and by an additional 970 kb/d in 2026.

Non-OPEC+ producers are set to add 1.3 mb/d this year and 820 kb/d next year, even as US LTO supply has been reduced.

Based on the latest plans, OPEC+ will add 310 kb/d of extra supply this year and 150 kb/d in 2026.Refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are broadly unchanged from last month’s Report at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively.

Annual gains of around 400 kb/d in both years are driven exclusively by non-OECD regions. Refining margins reached 12-month highs across most regions and configurations in late April, as a discernible shift in crude pricing boosted profitability.Global oil stocks rose by 25.1 mb in March, led by a 57.8 mb increase in crude, but at 7 671 mb remained well below the five-year average (-221 mb).

Total OECD inventories increased by 3.1 mb, while non-OECD stocks rose by 21.3 mb and oil on water was up slightly by 0.7 mb. Preliminary data show global oil inventories built further in April.

Benchmark crude oil prices fell by around $10/bbl over April and into May amid escalating US tariffs and larger-than-expected OPEC+ output hikes.

Bearish sentiment eased somewhat after the US reached a trade deal with the UK on 8 May, and a 90-day accord with China on 12 May. Russian crude prices averaged $55.64/bbl in April with all major export grades below the $60/bbl price cap.

At the time of writing, North Sea Dated was trading at around $66/bbl.

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International

Death toll in Hong Kong fire rises to 44 with 279 still missing, authorities say

Hong Kong authorities say the fires in four of the buildings have been brought under control, but large plumes of smoke are still hanging over the residential estate.

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Photo: AFP

At least 44 people have been killed so far in a major fire engulfing public housing apartments in Hong Kong’s Tai Po district, with 279 people not accounted for.

Three construction company executives have been arrested on suspicion of manslaughter connected to flammable materials, including mesh and plastic sheets, that may have allowed the fire to spread quickly.

More than 800 firefighters are tackling the blaze at Wang Fuk Court, which has been burning for over 18 hours.

The fire has been classified a level five blaze, the most serious level in Hong Kong.

A baby and an elderly woman were rescued during a late-night rescue, local media reports.

Hong Kong authorities say the fires in four of the buildings have been brought under control, but large plumes of smoke are still hanging over the residential estate.

I can smell it in the air. I can also see a number of small fires still burning in the apartment blocks.

Even more fire engines and an ambulance have arrived this morning to help with rescue efforts

BBC.

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International

BREAKING: Indian fighter jet crashes at Dubai airshow

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An Indian fighter jet has crashed while performing a display at an airshow in Dubai, officials have said.

Details later.

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JUST IN: Bangladesh war Crimes Court Sentences Ex-PM Hasina to Death

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A Bangladeshi war crimes tribunal has sentenced former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death.

The verdict, delivered on Monday, November 17, 2025, follows a months-long trial that found Hasina guilty of ordering a lethal crackdown on a student-led uprising last year. She received a death sentence for the killing of several protesters and a life sentence on charges of crimes against humanity.

The ruling marks the most significant legal action against a former Bangladeshi leader in decades and comes ahead of parliamentary elections expected in early February 2026. There was cheering and clapping in the courtroom as the death sentence was pronounced. The verdict can be appealed in the Supreme Court, though Hasina’s son and adviser, Sajeeb Wazed, said they would not appeal unless a democratically elected government, including the Awami League, is in office.

Prosecutors told the court that evidence showed Hasina directly ordered security forces to use lethal force to suppress protests in July and August 2024. A United Nations report estimates that up to 1,400 people were killed during the demonstrations, with thousands more injured, making it the deadliest unrest in Bangladesh since its 1971 war of independence.

Hasina, represented by a state-appointed defense lawyer, denied the charges, calling the tribunal proceedings unfair and claiming a guilty verdict was “a foregone conclusion.”

Tensions in Bangladesh had escalated ahead of the verdict, with at least 30 crude bomb explosions and 26 vehicles torched in recent days, though no casualties were reported.

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