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Global Oil Market Report – May 2025 by IEA

Based on the latest plans, OPEC+ will add 310 kb/d of extra supply this year and 150 kb/d in 2026.Refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are broadly unchanged from last month’s Report at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively.

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Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990 kb/d in 1Q25 to 650 kb/d for the remainder of the year as economic headwinds and record EV sales curb use.

International energy agency, made the disclosure in its Oil Market Report – May 2025

The report reads: ” Demand growth averages 740 kb/d in 2025 and 760 kb/d in 2026, despite accelerating OECD declines of -120 kb/d and -240 kb/d, respectively.

World oil supply looks on track to rise by 1.6 mb/d to 104.6 mb/d on average in 2025, and by an additional 970 kb/d in 2026.

Non-OPEC+ producers are set to add 1.3 mb/d this year and 820 kb/d next year, even as US LTO supply has been reduced.

Based on the latest plans, OPEC+ will add 310 kb/d of extra supply this year and 150 kb/d in 2026.Refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are broadly unchanged from last month’s Report at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively.

Annual gains of around 400 kb/d in both years are driven exclusively by non-OECD regions. Refining margins reached 12-month highs across most regions and configurations in late April, as a discernible shift in crude pricing boosted profitability.Global oil stocks rose by 25.1 mb in March, led by a 57.8 mb increase in crude, but at 7 671 mb remained well below the five-year average (-221 mb).

Total OECD inventories increased by 3.1 mb, while non-OECD stocks rose by 21.3 mb and oil on water was up slightly by 0.7 mb. Preliminary data show global oil inventories built further in April.

Benchmark crude oil prices fell by around $10/bbl over April and into May amid escalating US tariffs and larger-than-expected OPEC+ output hikes.

Bearish sentiment eased somewhat after the US reached a trade deal with the UK on 8 May, and a 90-day accord with China on 12 May. Russian crude prices averaged $55.64/bbl in April with all major export grades below the $60/bbl price cap.

At the time of writing, North Sea Dated was trading at around $66/bbl.

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International

Former Mauritanian president jailed for 15 years following appeal

Abdel Aziz, who has denied corruption allegations, was found guilty of economic crimes and abuse of power.

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Mauritania’s former president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, was on Wednesday sentenced to 15 years in prison on corruption charges following an appeal to a Nouakchott court by both the state and Aziz’s defence against a sentence imposed in 2023.

Reuters reported that Abdel Aziz led the West African country for a decade after coming to power in a 2008 coup, followed by an election a year later.

He was an ally of Western powers fighting Islamist militants in the Sahel region.

Abdel Aziz, who has denied corruption allegations, was found guilty of economic crimes and abuse of power.

He was initially handed a five-year prison sentence in December 2023 before the state appealed against the leniency of that punishment and Aziz’s team appealed the ruling, saying only a high court of justice was qualified to try a former president.

“It is a decision that reflects the pressure the executive branch exerts on the judiciary,” defence lawyer Mohameden Ichidou told Reuters, adding that the defence would appeal against the decision to the Supreme Court.

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Nissan plans 20,000 jobs cut after $4.5bn annual net loss

The uncertain nature of US tariff measures makes it difficult for us to rationally estimate our full-year forecast for operating profit and net profit, and therefore we have left those figures unspecified,” CEO Ivan Espinosa told reporters..

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Japan’s Nissan posted a huge annual net loss of $4.5 billion on Tuesday while confirming reports that it plans to cut 15 percent of its global workforce and warning about the possible impact of US tariffs.

AFP reported that the carmaker, whose mooted merger with Honda collapsed earlier this year, is heavily indebted and engaged in an expensive business restructuring plan.

Nissan reported a net loss of 671 billion yen for 2024-25 but did not issue a net profit forecast for the financial year that began in April. It did say, however, that it expects sales of 12.5 trillion yen in 2025-26.

The uncertain nature of US tariff measures makes it difficult for us to rationally estimate our full-year forecast for operating profit and net profit, and therefore we have left those figures unspecified,” CEO Ivan Espinosa told reporters.

“Nissan must prioritise self-improvement with greater urgency and speed.”

The company’s worst ever full-year net loss was 684 billion yen in 1999-2000, during a financial crisis that birthed its rocky partnership with French automaker Renault.

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UN Streamlining Operations Due to Funding Constraints

The liquidity crisis we now face is not new. But today’s financial and political situation adds even greater urgency to our efforts.

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•United Nations chief Antonio Guterres\ AFP

United Nations chief Antonio Guterres on Monday said reforming the global body will require “painful” changes, including staff reductions, to improve efficiency and deal with chronic budget constraints exacerbated by Trump administration policies.

In March, the secretary-general launched the UN80 initiative to streamline operations.

“Our shared goal has always been to make our organization more efficient, to simplify procedures, eliminate overlaps, and enhance transparency and accountability,” Guterres said Monday during an update to member states.

“The liquidity crisis we now face is not new. But today’s financial and political situation adds even greater urgency to our efforts.”

He warned “we know that some of these changes will be painful for our UN family.”

The proposed restructuring within the Secretariat includes merging units from the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA) with the Department of Peace Operations (DPO).

“I believe we’ll be able to eliminate 20 percent of the posts of the two departments,” he said, adding that the level of reduction outlined for DPPA and DPO “must be seen as a reference for the wider UN80 exercise.”

Guterres also raised the possibility of relocating positions from New York and Geneva to less expensive cities.

Member states will have to decide on their own changes.

The internal workload has also stretched the capacity of the UN system “beyond reason,” Guterres said.“

It is as if we have allowed the formalism and quantity of reports and meetings to become ends in themselves.

The measure of success is not the volume of reports we generate or the number of meetings we convene,” he said.

Guterres called on member states to make tough decisions.

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