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Global Oil Market Report – May 2025 by IEA

Based on the latest plans, OPEC+ will add 310 kb/d of extra supply this year and 150 kb/d in 2026.Refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are broadly unchanged from last month’s Report at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively.

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Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990 kb/d in 1Q25 to 650 kb/d for the remainder of the year as economic headwinds and record EV sales curb use.

International energy agency, made the disclosure in its Oil Market Report – May 2025

The report reads: ” Demand growth averages 740 kb/d in 2025 and 760 kb/d in 2026, despite accelerating OECD declines of -120 kb/d and -240 kb/d, respectively.

World oil supply looks on track to rise by 1.6 mb/d to 104.6 mb/d on average in 2025, and by an additional 970 kb/d in 2026.

Non-OPEC+ producers are set to add 1.3 mb/d this year and 820 kb/d next year, even as US LTO supply has been reduced.

Based on the latest plans, OPEC+ will add 310 kb/d of extra supply this year and 150 kb/d in 2026.Refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are broadly unchanged from last month’s Report at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively.

Annual gains of around 400 kb/d in both years are driven exclusively by non-OECD regions. Refining margins reached 12-month highs across most regions and configurations in late April, as a discernible shift in crude pricing boosted profitability.Global oil stocks rose by 25.1 mb in March, led by a 57.8 mb increase in crude, but at 7 671 mb remained well below the five-year average (-221 mb).

Total OECD inventories increased by 3.1 mb, while non-OECD stocks rose by 21.3 mb and oil on water was up slightly by 0.7 mb. Preliminary data show global oil inventories built further in April.

Benchmark crude oil prices fell by around $10/bbl over April and into May amid escalating US tariffs and larger-than-expected OPEC+ output hikes.

Bearish sentiment eased somewhat after the US reached a trade deal with the UK on 8 May, and a 90-day accord with China on 12 May. Russian crude prices averaged $55.64/bbl in April with all major export grades below the $60/bbl price cap.

At the time of writing, North Sea Dated was trading at around $66/bbl.

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International

Trump says he thinks Putin is helping Iran

“I think he might be helping them a bit, yeah.”“I guess, and he probably thinks we’re helping Ukraine, right?”

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President Donald Trump on Friday said he believed that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is helping Iran in its war against the United States and Israel.

According to CNBC, Trump’s comment came in a radio interview with Fox News host Brian Kilmeade, and a week after the president lashed out at Fox News reporter Peter Doocy for asking him at the White House about reports that Russia was aiding Iran.

Kilmeade asked Trump on Friday: “You think Putin is helping them?”

Trump replied, “I think he might be helping them a bit, yeah.”“I guess, and he probably thinks we’re helping Ukraine, right?” Trump continued.

“Yeah, we’re helping them also,” Trump said, referring to Ukraine, which has been at war against Russia since being invaded in early 2022.

“So he [Putin] says that, and China would say the same thing, you know,” Trump told Kilmeade.

“It’s like, ‘Hey, they do it, and we do it, in all fairness,’ ” Trump said. “They do it, and we do it.”

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International

IEA agrees to release record 400 million barrels of oil to address Iran war supply disruptions

The IEA did not set out a timeline for when the stocks would hit the market

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Merchant ship on fire hits by Iran in Strait of Hormuz.

The International Energy Agency on Wednesday agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war, the largest such action in the organization’s history.

The IEA did not set out a timeline for when the stocks would hit the market.

It said that the reserves would be released over a time frame that is appropriate to the circumstances of each of its 32 member countries.

IEA members are primarily advanced economies in Europe, North America and northeast Asia. The organization is tasked with maintaining global energy security.

It was founded in 1974 in response to the oil embargo imposed by Arab producers over U.S. support for Israel during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

(CNBC)

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International

Iran tells world to get ready for oil at $200 a barrel as it fires on merchant ships

The war unleashed with joint U.S. and Israeli air strikes nearly two weeks ago has so far killed around 2,000 people, mostly Iranians and Lebanese, as it has spread into ‌Lebanon and thrown global energy markets and transport into chaos.

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(REUTERS): Iran said the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel as its forces hit merchant ships on Wednesday and the International Energy Agency recommended a massive release of strategic reserves to dampen one of the worst oil shocks since the 1970s.

The war unleashed with joint U.S. and Israeli air strikes nearly two weeks ago has so far killed around 2,000 people, mostly Iranians and Lebanese, as it has spread into ‌Lebanon and thrown global energy markets and transport into chaos.

Despite what the Pentagon has described as the most intense airstrikes since the start of the war, Iran also fired at Israel and targets across the Middle East on Wednesday, demonstrating it can still fight back.

On Wednesday, three vessels were reported to have been hit in Gulf waters as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said their forces had fired on ships in the Gulf that had disobeyed their orders.

While Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said the operation “will continue without any time limit, as long as required, until we achieve all objectives and win the campaign,” Trump suggested the campaign would not last much longer.

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