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Economists Predict Positive Impact of Naira Appreciation on Inflation and Import Prices

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Nigerian economists are optimistic that the recent appreciation of the Naira against the U.S. dollar, if sustained, could significantly reduce the cost of imported goods and curb the country’s headline inflation, which stood at 33.88% in October 2024.

Gbolade Idakolo, Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, and Prof. Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University, Ibadan, shared these insights on Monday.

The Naira’s exchange rate improved to N1,538.50 per dollar on December 9, 2024, from N1,740 a month earlier. This represents a gain of N201.50 in the official market, despite slight fluctuations in rates at the start of the week.

This progress follows the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) introduction of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), aimed at fostering transparency and reducing market distortions. The platform has reportedly curbed speculative trading in the parallel market, bolstering confidence in the Naira’s stability.

Key Perspectives on the Naira’s Strengthening

Gbolade Idakolo described EFEMS as a “game changer” for its transparency and effectiveness in unifying forex bidding platforms. He emphasized that the system had diminished speculative activities in the parallel market, leading to a stronger Naira.

He highlighted the positive implications for importers, noting that the reduction in import duty exchange rates would decrease clearing costs, which are a significant factor in determining the prices of imported goods.

“The recent drop in exchange rates for import duties is a step in the right direction. Lower clearing charges will lead to reduced prices for imported goods, benefiting consumers,” Idakolo stated.

However, he urged the CBN to maintain strict regulatory oversight of banks, Bureau De Change operators, and other market players to ensure the sustainability of the gains.

Prof. Godwin Oyedokun attributed the Naira’s appreciation to increased FX inflows, reduced dollar demand, and strategic CBN interventions. He agreed that lower exchange rates for import duties could indirectly lower prices of imported goods, provided importers pass on the savings to consumers.

However, Oyedokun cautioned that several factors could limit the impact of the Naira’s appreciation on imported goods, including:

  • Global supply chain disruptions that may inflate costs.
  • Domestic economic conditions, such as inflation and government policies.
  • Importer behavior, as some importers might prioritize profit margins over price reductions.

To sustain the Naira’s strength, he advised the CBN to continue promoting macroeconomic stability, attracting foreign investment, and addressing structural issues like corruption, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure.

“While the recent Naira appreciation is encouraging, it may be temporary. Strategic and consistent interventions by the CBN will be crucial to sustaining this progress,” Oyedokun concluded.

Outlook

The economists agree that the Naira’s appreciation offers an opportunity to alleviate inflationary pressures, particularly in import-dependent sectors. However, sustained gains will require consistent policy measures and vigilance from the CBN to ensure long-term economic stability.

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CPPE Tasks Govt to Fix Cost of Living Crisis Amid GDP Growth

Reacting on Nigeria’s third quarter 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.98 percent , CPPE said that it’s laudable, but called for policy interventions to fix the cost of living crisis.

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The Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE) tasks the government to ensure that GDP Growth and macroeconomic stability translate into real improvements in citizens’ welfare.

Reacting on Nigeria’s third quarter 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.98 percent , CPPE said that it’s laudable, but called for policy interventions to fix the cost of living crisis.

Dr Muda Yusuf, CEO of the CPPE, notes that despite the improvment in the GDP, the cost-of-living crisis remains a concern .

He said: ” While disinflation is underway and prices of some food items and manufactured products are easing, the social outcomes of economic reforms continue to weigh on households.

” It is therefore imperative for policymaking to prioritise targeted interventions to address the uneasiness around the cost of living and ensure that GDP Growth and macroeconomic stability translate into real improvements in citizens’ welfare—particularly for vulnerable groups.”

To consolidate the gains recorded in Q3 and unlock stronger, more inclusive growth, Dr Yusuf, said that the following policy interventions are critical:

Reduce Structural Bottlenecks

Address energy supply constraints, reduce logistics costs, improve port efficiency, and accelerate transport infrastructure development.

Mitigate the Cost-of-Living Crisis

Implement targeted social interventions and remove structural impediments that elevate consumer prices.

All tiers of government [local, state and federal] must sustain targeted interventions in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, transportation and energy to fix the cost of living crisis.  

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Dangote Targets Nigeria Festive Season Monthly Supply of 1.5 billion litres of PMS

This represents 50 million litres per day. We are formally notifying the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) of this commitment.

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery says that it has concluded arrangements to supply over 50 million litres of petrol per day into the Nigerian market this festive season (December to January).

The company said that the decision was taken to ensure that there is no shortage of the product during the festive season.

This translates to 1.5 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) for the month of December.

The same amount of product will also be supplied in January 2026, it was added.

President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, announced the plans.

Dangote said: “In line with our commitment to national well-being, and consistent with our track record of ensuring a holiday season free of fuel scarcity, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery will supply 1.5 billion litres of PMS to the Nigerian market this month.

This represents 50 million litres per day. We are formally notifying the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) of this commitment.

We will supply another 1.5 billion litres in January and increase to 1.75 billion litres in February, which translates to over 60 million litres per day.”

Speaking during a visit by the South-South Development Commission (SSDC) to the refinery and the Dangote Fertiliser complex, he stated that the facility currently has adequate stock and is producing between 40 and 45 million litres of PMS daily.

He added that the daily supply of 50 million litres should dispel long-standing claims that domestic refineries lack the capacity to meet national demand.

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Dangote Partners Honeywell International to Boost Refinery Capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day

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Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest single-train petroleum refinery, has signed a landmark contract with U.S. industrial giant Honeywell International to execute a significant capacity upgrade that will boost the facility’s crude processing capability from the current 650,000 barrels per day to an ambitious 1.4 million barrels per day.

The multi-billion-dollar project, described by sources close to the deal as one of the largest refinery expansion initiatives globally in recent years, will involve the installation of advanced process units, automation systems, and energy-efficiency technologies supplied and integrated by Honeywell UOP and Honeywell Process Solutions.

Aliko Dangote, President and CEO of Dangote Industries Limited, confirmed the partnership, stating: “This strategic collaboration with Honeywell will position the Dangote Refinery as one of the top five largest refineries in the world by capacity.

The upgrade will not only enhance our ability to meet Nigeria’s complete refined products demand but also establish the refinery as a major export hub for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals across Africa and beyond.

”The expansion is expected to be implemented in phases, with key units including additional crude distillation, hydrocracking, and catalytic reforming modules.

Honeywell’s proprietary technologies are anticipated to improve yield of high-value products while reducing energy consumption and emissions.Upon completion, the 1.4 million bpd Dangote Refinery will surpass the current global top-tier facilities such as Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar Refinery (1.24 million bpd) and Paraguay’s planned 1.2 million bpd project, cementing its status as the world’s largest single-train refinery.

The project is expected to create thousands of direct and indirect jobs during the construction and commissioning phases and further reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products.

A spokesperson for Honeywell confirmed the award, saying the company was “honored to partner with Dangote on this transformative project that will reshape the African downstream landscape.

”Detailed timelines and the exact value of the contract were not disclosed, but industry analysts estimate the expansion could exceed $5–7 billion in total investment.

The statement said: Dangote Group is pleased to announce that it has entered into a strategic partnership with Honeywell International Inc to support the next phase of expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

This collaboration will provide advanced technology and services that will enable the refinery to increase its processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028, marking a major milestone in our long-term vision to build the world’s largest petroleum refining complex.

Through this agreement, Honeywell will supply specialised catalysts, equipment, and process technologies that will allow the refinery to process a broader slate of crude grades efficiently and to further enhance product quality and operational reliability.

Honeywell, a global Fortune 100 industrial and technology company, offers a wide portfolio of solutions across aviation, automotive, industrial automation, and advanced materials.

Honeywell’s division UOP has been a technology partner to Dangote since 2017, providing proprietary refining systems, catalyst regeneration equipment, high performance column trays, and heat exchanger technologies that support our best-in-class operations.

Dangote Group is also advancing its petrochemical footprint. As part of the wider collaboration, we are scaling our polypropylene capacity to 2.4 million metric tons annually using Honeywell’s Oleflex technology.

Polypropylene is a key industrial material widely used across packaging, manufacturing, and automotive applications.In addition to refining expansion, Dangote Group is progressing with the next phase of its fertiliser growth plan in Nigeria. We will increase our urea production capacity from 3 million metric tons to 9 million metric tons annually.

The existing plant consists of two trains of 1.5 million metric tons each. The expansion will add four additional trains to meet growing demand for high-quality fertiliser across Africa and global markets.

Dangote Group remains fully committed to delivering world-class industrial capacity, strengthening Nigeria’s energy security, and driving sustainable economic growth through long-term investment, innovation, and strategic global partnerships.

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