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Economists Predict Positive Impact of Naira Appreciation on Inflation and Import Prices

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Nigerian economists are optimistic that the recent appreciation of the Naira against the U.S. dollar, if sustained, could significantly reduce the cost of imported goods and curb the country’s headline inflation, which stood at 33.88% in October 2024.

Gbolade Idakolo, Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, and Prof. Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University, Ibadan, shared these insights on Monday.

The Naira’s exchange rate improved to N1,538.50 per dollar on December 9, 2024, from N1,740 a month earlier. This represents a gain of N201.50 in the official market, despite slight fluctuations in rates at the start of the week.

This progress follows the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) introduction of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), aimed at fostering transparency and reducing market distortions. The platform has reportedly curbed speculative trading in the parallel market, bolstering confidence in the Naira’s stability.

Key Perspectives on the Naira’s Strengthening

Gbolade Idakolo described EFEMS as a “game changer” for its transparency and effectiveness in unifying forex bidding platforms. He emphasized that the system had diminished speculative activities in the parallel market, leading to a stronger Naira.

He highlighted the positive implications for importers, noting that the reduction in import duty exchange rates would decrease clearing costs, which are a significant factor in determining the prices of imported goods.

“The recent drop in exchange rates for import duties is a step in the right direction. Lower clearing charges will lead to reduced prices for imported goods, benefiting consumers,” Idakolo stated.

However, he urged the CBN to maintain strict regulatory oversight of banks, Bureau De Change operators, and other market players to ensure the sustainability of the gains.

Prof. Godwin Oyedokun attributed the Naira’s appreciation to increased FX inflows, reduced dollar demand, and strategic CBN interventions. He agreed that lower exchange rates for import duties could indirectly lower prices of imported goods, provided importers pass on the savings to consumers.

However, Oyedokun cautioned that several factors could limit the impact of the Naira’s appreciation on imported goods, including:

  • Global supply chain disruptions that may inflate costs.
  • Domestic economic conditions, such as inflation and government policies.
  • Importer behavior, as some importers might prioritize profit margins over price reductions.

To sustain the Naira’s strength, he advised the CBN to continue promoting macroeconomic stability, attracting foreign investment, and addressing structural issues like corruption, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure.

“While the recent Naira appreciation is encouraging, it may be temporary. Strategic and consistent interventions by the CBN will be crucial to sustaining this progress,” Oyedokun concluded.

Outlook

The economists agree that the Naira’s appreciation offers an opportunity to alleviate inflationary pressures, particularly in import-dependent sectors. However, sustained gains will require consistent policy measures and vigilance from the CBN to ensure long-term economic stability.

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Business

Heirs Energies Secures $750 Million Financing from Afreximbank for Expansion

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Heirs Energies Limited, Nigeria’s leading indigenous integrated energy company, has secured a $750 million financing facility from the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).

The deal was finalized during a signing ceremony in Abuja on December 20, 2025, attended by Tony O. Elumelu, CFR, Chairman of Heirs Energies, and Dr. George Elombi, President and Chairman of Afreximbank.

This transaction marks one of the largest financings ever obtained by an indigenous African energy firm, underscoring strong confidence in Heirs Energies’ operational track record, governance, brownfield expertise, and future growth potential.

Since taking over operatorship of Oil Mining Lease (OML) 17, Heirs Energies has implemented a rigorous turnaround strategy, emphasizing production recovery, asset integrity, and efficiency gains.

Through targeted interventions and infrastructure upgrades, the company has shifted from acquisition-focused funding to a sustainable capital structure suited to long-term reserve development.

Production has doubled since acquisition, rising from 25,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and 50 million standard cubic feet of gas per day (mmscf/d) to more than 50,000 bopd and 120 mmscf/d currently. All gas output is supplied to Nigeria’s domestic market, playing a key role in supporting national power generation.

The company has also overhauled community engagement and upheld top-tier health and safety standards.

The new Afreximbank facility will fund accelerated field development, production optimization, and strategic growth initiatives, all while adhering to strict capital discipline.Tony O. Elumelu, CFR, Chairman of Heirs Energies, commented: “This transaction is a powerful affirmation of what African enterprise can achieve when backed by disciplined execution and long-term African capital.

It reflects the successful journey Heirs Energies has taken—from turnaround to growth—and reinforces our belief in African capital working for African businesses. This is Africa financing Africa’s future.

”Dr. George Elombi, President and Chairman of Afreximbank, added: “Afreximbank is proud to support Heirs Energies at this pivotal stage of its growth.

This financing reflects our confidence in the company’s leadership, governance, and asset base, and aligns with our mandate to support African champions driving sustainable economic transformation across the continent.

”The deal highlights Afreximbank’s commitment to empowering indigenous operators capable of advancing energy security, sustainable development, and economic value throughout Africa.

With this funding in place, Heirs Energies is well-positioned for its next growth phase, prioritizing operational excellence, responsible resource management, and lasting stakeholder value.

Heirs Energies Limited is Africa’s leading indigenous-owned integrated energy company, dedicated to addressing the continent’s energy demands while advancing global sustainability objectives. It emphasizes innovation, environmental stewardship, and community development in the evolving energy sector.

The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is a Pan-African multilateral institution focused on financing and promoting intra- and extra-African trade, supporting industrialization, trade growth, and economic transformation.

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Dangote: A Dogged and Fierce Fighter for Local Industries Survival

Nigeria aims to reduce reliance on imported refined fuels by 2024/2025, transitioning to self- sufficiency through the Dangote Refinery and rehabilitated refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, with plans to become a net exporter.

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By OCHEFA

Africa’s billionaire Aliko Dangote, an astute industrialist, is always attentive to the environment around him, embodying the idiom” ears to the ground.

His investments in Nigeria and the other African countries span cement, sugar, petrochemicals, fertilisers and his latest venture, a $20 billion petroleum refinery in the Lekki free trade zone in Lagos.Six months ago, Dangote stepped down as the Chairman of the Dangote Group’s Board on July 25, 2025.

Anthony Chiejina, the Group’s Chief of Branding and Communications, explained that this move allows Dangote to focus more on the refinery, petrochemicals, Fertiliser, and government relations, to elevate the company’s five- year plan to new heights.

Subsequently, Emmanuel Ikazoboh, an independent non- executive director, was appointed Chairman of Dangote Cement Plc.

With his keen awareness of global and local oil and gas developments, Dangote closely monitors issues affecting his refinery’s operations.

He relies on a team of experts to keep him informed, and he responds fiercely against policies threatening his interests.

A current example is his public dispute with Farouk Ahmed, CEO of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

With his keen awareness of global and local oil and gas developments, Dangote closely monitors issues affecting his refinery’s operations.

Recently, Dangote accused NMDPRA of economic sabotage, criticising its continued issuance of import licences for petroleum products- licenses totalling approximately 7. 5 billion litres of PMS for early 2026- despite Nigeria’s growing refining capacity.

He claimed this undermines local refining, sustains Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports, and discourages local investments.

Dangote also alleged collusion between NMDPRA and international traders, which the regulator has denied.

Nigeria aims to reduce reliance on imported refined fuels by 2024/2025, transitioning to self- sufficiency through the Dangote Refinery and rehabilitated refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, with plans to become a net exporter.

Policies like a proposed 15% duty aim to make imports more expensive and accelerate this transition.

Dangote insists that he seeks accountability, not removal, calling for an investigation into NMDPRA’ s actions.

Following Dangote’s accusations,Ahmed resigned, acknowledging awareness of allegations against him and his family, which have attracted public attention.

He stated he avoided public disputes due to the sensitive nature of his regulatory role but welcomed a formal investigation to clear his name.

President Tinubu then asked the Senate to approve new CEOS for NMDPRA and NUPRC- Engineer Saidu Aliyu Mohammed and Oritsemeyiwa Amanorisewo Eyesan, respectively.

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President Tinubu to present 2026 budget to N/Assembly Friday

The 2026 budget is projected at N54.4 trillion, according to the approved 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will, on Friday, present the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly.

The presentation, scheduled for 2:00 pm, was conveyed in a notice issued by the Office of the Clerk to the National Assembly.

According to the notice, all accredited persons are required to be at their duty posts by 11:00 am on the day of the presentation, as access into the National Assembly Complex will be restricted thereafter for security reasons.

The notice, signed by the Secretary, Human Resources and Staff Development, Essien Eyo Essien, on behalf of the Clerk to the National Assembly, urged all concerned to ensure strict compliance with the arrangements ahead of the President’s budget presentation.

The 2026 budget is projected at N54.4 trillion, according to the approved 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).

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