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Economists Predict Positive Impact of Naira Appreciation on Inflation and Import Prices

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Nigerian economists are optimistic that the recent appreciation of the Naira against the U.S. dollar, if sustained, could significantly reduce the cost of imported goods and curb the country’s headline inflation, which stood at 33.88% in October 2024.

Gbolade Idakolo, Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, and Prof. Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University, Ibadan, shared these insights on Monday.

The Naira’s exchange rate improved to N1,538.50 per dollar on December 9, 2024, from N1,740 a month earlier. This represents a gain of N201.50 in the official market, despite slight fluctuations in rates at the start of the week.

This progress follows the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) introduction of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), aimed at fostering transparency and reducing market distortions. The platform has reportedly curbed speculative trading in the parallel market, bolstering confidence in the Naira’s stability.

Key Perspectives on the Naira’s Strengthening

Gbolade Idakolo described EFEMS as a “game changer” for its transparency and effectiveness in unifying forex bidding platforms. He emphasized that the system had diminished speculative activities in the parallel market, leading to a stronger Naira.

He highlighted the positive implications for importers, noting that the reduction in import duty exchange rates would decrease clearing costs, which are a significant factor in determining the prices of imported goods.

“The recent drop in exchange rates for import duties is a step in the right direction. Lower clearing charges will lead to reduced prices for imported goods, benefiting consumers,” Idakolo stated.

However, he urged the CBN to maintain strict regulatory oversight of banks, Bureau De Change operators, and other market players to ensure the sustainability of the gains.

Prof. Godwin Oyedokun attributed the Naira’s appreciation to increased FX inflows, reduced dollar demand, and strategic CBN interventions. He agreed that lower exchange rates for import duties could indirectly lower prices of imported goods, provided importers pass on the savings to consumers.

However, Oyedokun cautioned that several factors could limit the impact of the Naira’s appreciation on imported goods, including:

  • Global supply chain disruptions that may inflate costs.
  • Domestic economic conditions, such as inflation and government policies.
  • Importer behavior, as some importers might prioritize profit margins over price reductions.

To sustain the Naira’s strength, he advised the CBN to continue promoting macroeconomic stability, attracting foreign investment, and addressing structural issues like corruption, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure.

“While the recent Naira appreciation is encouraging, it may be temporary. Strategic and consistent interventions by the CBN will be crucial to sustaining this progress,” Oyedokun concluded.

Outlook

The economists agree that the Naira’s appreciation offers an opportunity to alleviate inflationary pressures, particularly in import-dependent sectors. However, sustained gains will require consistent policy measures and vigilance from the CBN to ensure long-term economic stability.

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For The Record: “I Will Build an “NNPC that’ll be the Pride of Nigerians”- Ojulari

Ojulari said that the NNPC Ltd. under his stewardship aims to attract sectoral investments worth $30 billion by 2027 and $60 billion by 2030; raise crude oil production to over 2 million barrels per day, sustained through 2027, and attain 3 million by 2030.

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The new Group Chief Executive Officer of the NNPC Ltd., Mr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, has pledged to build an NNPCL that will be the pride of all Nigerians.

“We recognize that our greatest asset is our people. Our success will be powered by empowered employees. As such, we are fully committed to creating a workplace where everyone is valued, motivated, and inspired to thrive. Together, we will build a high-performing, globally competitive NNPC Ltd that is proudly Nigerian and proudly world-class,” Ojulari said during a meeting with the staff of the Company, with a vow to pursue the company’s bold ambitions and build an NNPC that will be the pride of all Nigerians.

In a Town Hall meeting held at the NNPC Towers in Abuja, on Thursday, Ojulari said it was a huge honour and responsibility to lead the NNPC Ltd.

He describes the Company as an entity that means a lot to Nigeria and its future.

“We stand at the gateway of a new era—one that demands courage, professionalism, and a relentless drive for excellence.

The task before us is great, yet the opportunity to redefine Nigeria’s energy future is even greater. Now is the time to turn our transformation promise into performance,” Ojulari told thousands of the Company’s staff.

Ojulari said that the NNPC Ltd. under his stewardship aims to attract sectoral investments worth $30 billion by 2027 and $60 billion by 2030; raise crude oil production to over 2 million barrels per day, sustained through 2027, and attain 3 million by 2030; expand refining output to 200kbpd by 2027, and 500kbpd by 2030; grow gas production to 10bcf per day by 2027, and 12bcf by 2030 and deepen energy access and affordability for all Nigerians.

To achieve these targets, the company will be focusing on reconfiguring its business structure for agility and value creation, conducting independent value assessments to inform data-driven decisions, enforcing a robust performance management framework, building transparent, value-aligned partnerships with all stakeholders, and, most critically, taking control of its narrative.

While explaining the criticality of pursuing the Company’s bold ambitions, the Group CEO said the targets are not just metrics, but indicators of hope, jobs, industrial growth, and energy security for millions of Nigerians.

Describing NNPC Ltd. as a renewed, forward-facing, and future-ready organisation that is proudly leading Nigeria’s energy transformation, Ojulari said “it’s time we tell our story—one of innovation, reform, and national pride.”

He charged staff to be proud of NNPC Ltd.’s recent transformation, stressing that the next journey to becoming a fully-fledged limited liability company will require the collective drive towards making NNPC more transparent, profitable, and accountable.

The Group CEO pledged to give all employees the space to be able to outperform competitors.

“We will provide the best combination where the experienced and the young will both thrive towards achieving our set targets,” he assured.

He said his Management will deepen collaboration with the Company’s in-house and national unions to build a stronger, trust-based relationship that reflects shared purpose and mutual respect.

He also called on all staff to lead with integrity and act with urgency while bringing their very best to the table.

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LCCI, NIXIN Reel Actions to Boost Nigeria’s Paper Industry

He condemned the current tariff regime, which imposes duties on plain paper imports but allows for the importation of printed materials duty-free.

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The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has called on the Federal Government to provide policy support and incentives to boost local paper manufacturing in Nigeria.

The Chairman, LCCI, Printing Publishing and Allied Group (PPA), Gabriel Okonkwo, stressed the urgent need for government intervention in the paper manufacturing sector to revive local production and reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imports.

During a meeting with stakeholders at NIXIN Paper Mill, Okonkwo highlighted policy inconsistencies that have continued to undermine local manufacturers.

He condemned the current tariff regime, which imposes duties on plain paper imports but allows for the importation of printed materials duty-free.

“This unfair policy has created a lopsided competitive environment that favours foreign manufacturers over local producers.

“This has led to a situation where it’s cheaper to print books and other materials abroad and import them, rather than produce them locally,” he added.

As a result, a significant number of printing jobs are being outsourced to other countries, depriving our local industry of business opportunities.

If local manufacturers can provide high-quality paper at competitive prices, it would reduce our reliance on imports, conserve foreign exchange, create jobs, and contribute significantly to the economy,” Okonkwo said.

He pointed out that Nigeria’s large population, especially its student demographic, offers a massive market for paper products, calling on support for local paper manufacturers to produce at scale and competitive prices.

Reinforcing his call for increased confidence in local capacity, Okonkwo pointed to recent developments with the electoral body as a case in point. “INEC didn’t even believe we could produce ballot papers locally until recently.

It’s time we began to believe in and invest in our own,” Okonkwo stressed.

As part of NIXIN Paper Mill’s commitment to the nation’s self-sustenance, the paper mill is concentrated on increasing production capacity, improving product quality, and expanding its product line to meet the growing demands of the Nigerian market, thereby reducing the country’s dependence on foreign paper products and contributing to the growth of the local economy.

The Managing Director of NIXIN Paper Mill, Eric Wang, highlighted the potential of Nigeria’s paper industry, comparing it with his hometown in China, with a population of just 300,000, supporting a paper factory that consumes over 20,000 tons monthly.

In contrast, Nigeria, with a population exceeding 200 million, recorded only 70,000 to 75,000 tonnes per month, a figure he believes should be much higher given the country’s educational and commercial demands.

“We see that over 80 percent of Nigeria’s educational and printing materials are imported from Asia,” Wang stated.

Business Manager, NIXIN, Williams Sun, echoed that Nigeria significantly underutilized its local paper production capacity, with many orders still going to countries like India and China.

He emphasized the significant investment NIXIN has made of over $60 million and expressed frustration over the lack of returns, noting that one year into operations, the expected market response has yet to materialize.

Sun urged the government to support investors and take steps that will attract more players into the publishing and paper production space, which is critical for building a self-sufficient industry.

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AI’s Market Value Surging to $4.8 trillion by 2033- UNCTAD

Accordingly, the UN trade body urged: ” Countries should act now – by investing in digital infrastructure, building capabilities and strengthening AI governance – to harness the AI potential for sustainable development.

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A data center stores and processes data, the foundation on which AI systems learn, improve, and make decisions. © Shutterstock/Goodenough |

UN Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) Technology and Innovation Report 2025  has projected that Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to reach $4.8 trillion in market value by 2033.

Accordingly, the UN trade body urged: ” Countries should act now – by investing in digital infrastructure, building capabilities and strengthening AI governance – to harness the AI potential for sustainable development.”

In the report, UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan underlined the importance of ensuring people are at the centre of AI development, calling for stronger international cooperation to “shift the focus from technology to people, enabling countries to co-create a global artificial intelligence framework”.

She said;” AI’s economic benefit is massive but must be shared, becoming a prominent force in digital transformation; noting that. however, access to AI infrastructure and expertise remains concentrated in a few economies.”

Just 100 firms, mainly in the US and China, account for 40% of global corporate research and development (R&D) spending. Leading tech giants, such as Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft, each have a market value of around $3 trillion, rivalling the gross domestic product of the whole African continent.

Market dominance, at both national and corporate levels, may widen technological divides, leaving many developing nations at risk of missing out on the benefits of AI.”

She emphasized that AI is reshaping jobs , and therefore, investment in skills is crucial”AI could impact 40% of jobs worldwide, offering productivity gains but also raising concerns about automation and job displacement.

The benefits of AI-driven automation often favour capital over labour, which could widen inequality and reduce the competitive advantage of low-cost labour in developing economies.

However, AI is not just about replacing jobs – it can also create new industries and empower workers.

Investing in reskilling, upskilling and workforce adaptation is essential to ensure AI enhances employment opportunities rather than eliminating them,” said Grynspan.

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