Key Contenders: Hassan Khomeini; Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Alireza Arafi.Credit: CNBC

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death following joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes has thrust Iran’s leadership into the urgent process of selecting a new supreme leader.

CNBC reports that under Iran’s constitution, the supreme leader is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member clerical body elected by the public every eight years.

Candidates for the Assembly are first vetted by the Guardian Council, tightly controlling who can run.

When the position becomes vacant, the Assembly convenes to deliberate and select a successor.

The decision requires a simple majority vote.In the interim, a provisional three-member leadership council assumes the supreme leader’s duties until a replacement is formally appointed.

In the interim, a provisional three-member leadership council assumes the supreme leader’s duties until a replacement is formally appointed.

On Sunday, local media reported that the temporary council comprises President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, who serves as the Guardian Council’s representative.

The council’s authority is strictly transitional, while the Assembly of Experts retains sole constitutional power to choose Iran’s next supreme leader.

On Polymarket, traders are pricing Mohseni-Ejei as the narrow frontrunner at roughly 18%. Other top contenders include Arafi and Iranian cleric Hassan Khomeini.

The “Position abolished” outcome is trading close behind, suggesting that while markets still lean toward an individual successor, there is meaningful speculation around a potential structural change to the office itself.

Here are some key contenders:

1. 1. Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei
2. .

Mohseni-Ejei has been the Chief Justice of Iran since July 2021, overseeing the country’s judiciary and supervising legal policy across the Islamic Republic. Before that, he served as prosecutor-general from 2009 to 2014, was first deputy head and spokesperson of the judiciary from 2014 until 2021, and earlier held national security roles, including minister of intelligence from 2005 until 2009.

He has also been a longtime member of the Expediency Discernment Council, a key advisory body to Iran’s leadership, and his career has spanned senior positions in both the judicial and security apparatus.

2. Hassan Khomeini

Khomeini is the grandson of Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, could theoretically serve as a bridge between the revolutionary system and reform-minded constituencies, said the Council on Foreign Relations.

CFR suggested that elevating someone like him might help preserve the core structure of the Islamic Republic, ease Iran’s international isolation, and address popular dissatisfaction at home.

3. Alireza Arafi

Arafi is a senior Iranian cleric and influential figure within the Islamic Republic’s religious and political hierarchy.

He has risen through the clerical establishment with a series of key appointments, including director of Iran’s seminaries, Friday Prayer leader in Qom, and member of both the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, the body constitutionally tasked with selecting the supreme leader.

Arafi’s roles in shaping theological education and vetting political candidates have made him a central fixture in Iran’s clerical power structure.

What’s next?

Under Article 111 of Iran’s constitution, the death or incapacity of the supreme leader immediately triggers the formation of a temporary leadership council to exercise his powers until a successor is chosen.The constitution does not set a strict deadline for the Assembly of Experts to appoint a new leader, but it states that the Assembly must act “in the shortest possible time.”

.…..as Israel Conducts Coordinated Strikes

In a dramatic escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the United States has initiated what President Donald Trump described as “major combat operations” against Iran, with Israel simultaneously announcing its own preemptive strikes on Iranian targets.

President Trump made the announcement early Saturday morning in an eight-minute video posted on his Truth Social platform, stating: “A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.

Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people.

“The U.S. leader vowed to “raze their missile industry to the ground,” annihilate Iran’s navy, dismantle its missile capabilities, and prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

He also urged Iranians to “take over your government” and suggested the operations could foster regime change, describing the campaign as “massive and ongoing” with potential for several days of action.

The strikes come after weeks of stalled diplomatic negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, during which the U.S. demanded significant concessions including dismantling key nuclear facilities and halting enrichment that Tehran rejected. U.S. officials had previously amassed substantial military assets in the region, including carrier strike groups, amid threats of force if talks failed.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that his country launched a “pre-emptive” attack on Iran to neutralize existential threats, with explosions reported in multiple cities including the capital Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah.

Smoke plumes were visible rising over Tehran, and witnesses described blasts near key government sites.

An Israeli source indicated coordination with the United States, framing the joint effort as targeting Iran’s military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and proxy networks.

Iranian state media and officials reported widespread attacks and vowed a “crushing” retaliation, with the armed forces preparing to respond. Iranian missiles have reportedly been launched toward Israel in response, triggering sirens and shelter instructions across the country.

The operation marks a significant escalation in the long-standing U.S.-Iran confrontation, building on prior strikes including U.S. actions against Iranian nuclear facilities last year.

International reactions are emerging rapidly, with concerns about a broader regional conflict involving Iran’s proxies and potential disruptions to global energy supplies.

This is a developing story. Stay tuned for updates as more details emerge from the region and official statements are released.

Image credit : AFP

President Donald Trump on Thursday promised $10 billion for a new “Board of Peace,” an amorphous new institution focused first on Gaza that is being launched just as he threatens Iran with war.

While US warplanes and aircraft carriers headed toward Iran on his orders, Trump welcomed some two dozen allies from around the world to the gleaming Washington building of the former US Institute of Peace, which has been gutted and renamed after the 79-year-old Republican.

Trump, who has sharply curtailed foreign aid, said that the United States would contribute $10 billion to the initiative whose goals include rebuilding Gaza, which was reduced to rubble by two years of war between Hamas and Israel.

“Together we can achieve the dream of bringing lasting harmony to a region tortured by centuries of war, suffering,” said the realtor-turned-president, who has previously spoken improbably of building tourist resorts in Gaza.

Trump did not explain exactly where the money would go and his “Board of Peace” has drawn wide criticism for its opaque nature.

Trump will wield veto power over the “Board of Peace” and can remain its head even after leaving office, while countries that want to stay on permanently rather than enjoy a two-year stint will need to pay $1 billion.

In a rambling speech in which he denounced domestic opponents, highlighted stock market gains and hailed his prowess in endorsing foreign leaders during elections, Trump said he wanted to pursue more peace deals.