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VAT Debates And The Future of Nigeria’s Federalism

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By Muhammad Jibrin Barde

The ongoing Value Added Tax (VAT) debate in Nigeria exposes deeper issues about governance, fiscal responsibility, and the structure of federalism.

This debate isn’t just about revenue; it goes to the heart of how we understand and apply federal principles in the Nigerian context.

The push for a derivation-based VAT system raises critical questions about constitutional integrity, equity, and the economic realities of interdependence among states.

Amidst this discourse, Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, has added a layer of inconsistency and hypocrisy to the debate.

While Oyedele acknowledges the importance of constitutional reforms, his stance on revenue-sharing mechanisms appears contradictory, prioritizing political expediency over sustainable federal principles.

Mr. Oyedele, in his capacity as a tax expert and reform advocate, has publicly emphasized the need for equity and fairness in tax administration.

However, his position on VAT appears to undermine these principles. His advocacy for a derivation-based sharing formula, particularly benefitting economically advanced states, disregards the constitutional framework and federal values of redistribution.

1.Contradictions in Equity Arguments:

Oyedele often stresses the importance of supporting less-developed regions through equitable tax policies.

Yet, his support for derivation in VAT allocation contradicts this stance, as it would disproportionately benefit wealthier states like Lagos and Rivers while marginalizing less-developed states that rely heavily on VAT allocations for public services and infrastructure.

2.Ignoring Interdependence:

VAT is a consumption tax that thrives on the interconnectedness of Nigeria’s economy.

Wealthier states benefit significantly from goods and services supplied by less-developed regions.

By advocating for derivation, Oyedele fails to acknowledge the contributions of these regions to the broader economic ecosystem.

3.Political Expediency Over Principles:

Oyedele’s position appears to align with powerful political interests rather than sound fiscal principles.

This inconsistency weakens the integrity of his broader reform agenda and raises doubts about the credibility of the committee he leads.

At the Heart of the Debate: Federalism and Revenue Allocation

The VAT debate transcends Oyedele’s inconsistencies, touching on fundamental questions about Nigeria’s federal structure:

1. Current VAT Collection and Allocation

VAT is centrally administered by the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and distributed as follows:

•15% to the Federal Government,

•50% to State Governments,

•35% to Local Governments.

Allocation to states is based on population, equality, and landmass—not derivation.

This structure aligns with the revenue-sharing principles enshrined in the 1999 Constitution (as amended), ensuring redistribution to promote equitable development.

2. The Push for Derivation-Based Sharing States like Lagos and Rivers argue for a derivation-based VAT model, claiming that states generating the most VAT should retain a higher share.

However, this argument overlooks the unique nature of VAT as a consumption tax that reflects economic interdependence.

Extending the derivation principle to VAT would require a constitutional amendment.

The principle currently applies only to resource revenues, such as oil, where 13 percent is allocated to resource-producing states.

Attempting to apply it to VAT without constitutional reform undermines the legal framework of the federation.

3. Risks of a Derivation Model Introducing derivation-based VAT sharing raises serious economic and equity concerns:

•Widening Inequalities: Wealthier states would benefit disproportionately, exacerbating regional disparities and leaving less-developed states unable to meet basic developmental needs.

•Undermining Interdependence:

The interconnected nature of Nigeria’s economy means that VAT generated in one state often relies on contributions from others. A derivation model ignores this synergy.

•Threatening National Cohesion:

A derivation-based model could deepen divisions among states, fostering resentment and undermining the unity of the federation.

The Way Forward: Constitutional Reform

The VAT debate highlights the need for a comprehensive review of Nigeria’s fiscal and constitutional framework. Key steps include:

1.Clarifying Revenue Allocation Principles:

The Constitution must explicitly define how VAT revenues should be allocated, balancing fiscal autonomy with redistribution.

2.Addressing Regional Disparities:

Fiscal reforms should prioritize reducing inequalities, ensuring that all states, regardless of their economic capacity, have access to resources for development.

3.Strengthening Federalism:

The debate underscores the importance of cooperative federalism, where states recognize their interdependence and work towards shared goals.

Conclusion: Building a Fair and Sustainable Federal System

The VAT debate is not merely about tax revenue; it is a question of how we interpret and apply federal principles within our governance framework.

Changes to revenue-sharing mechanisms like VAT must emerge from a broader constitutional review that reflects the realities of Nigeria’s federal structure.

Anything short of this risks undermining the legal and institutional foundation of the federation. Mr. Oyedele’s position exemplifies the dangers of politicizing critical fiscal debates.

For Nigeria to move forward, leaders must prioritize principles over expediency, ensuring that fiscal policies promote equity, sustainability, and national cohesion.

The proper course of action is constitutional reform—not short-sighted adjustments—that uphold the integrity of our federal system and ensure equitable development for all regions.

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When Public Outcry Actually Works: The Aide-de-Camp’s Promotion U-Turn

In a real democracy, it’s not just about making the right call the first time. It’s about having the guts to fix things when you get them wrong.

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•President Bola Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu just walked back the much-criticised promotion of his Aide-de-Camp (ADC) to Brigadier -General after Nigerians made a lot of noise about it.

For once, people’s voices cut through the usual government static. It’s proof that, at least sometimes, public outrage can actually change things in Nigeria.

This promotion wasn’t just a small slip-up. Inside the army and among civilians, folks were angry because the whole thing seemed to break the military’s own rules.

Normally, if you’re a Colonel, you sit tight for several years before anyone even thinks about making you a Brigadier General.

In this case, the ADC barely had a year in that seat. Plus, ADCs don’t usually get picked from such high ranks in the first place.

For once, people’s voices cut through the usual government static. It’s proof that, at least sometimes, public outrage can actually change things in Nigeria.

So, the whole thing looked fishy from the start. It’s not just about skipping a step—it points to a bigger issue: the president’s advisers dropped the ball.

And honestly, you can’t really separate Tinubu from the problem.

The ADC is glued to the president’s side, and a move like this would never fly without his say-so. Still, let’s be fair. Tinubu actually paid attention to the outcry.

He listened, changed his mind, and reversed a decision that most leaders would’ve stubbornly stuck with.

In a real democracy, it’s not just about making the right call the first time. It’s about having the guts to fix things when you get them wrong.

Strangely, though, some of the same people who slammed the promotion are now upset about the reversal, too. What do they want? Real accountability, or just something new to complain about?

In the end, this whole episode is a reminder to those in power: follow the rules, pick advisers who know what they’re doing, and take public criticism seriously—without flipping and flopping.

That’s how you rebuild trust, little by little, between leaders and the people they’re supposed to serve.

Adebayo Ilupeju, Lagos.

Caveat: The opinion expressed in this article is solely that of the author, and not that of Ohibaba.com

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Agbakoba Writes Oyetola on ‘Unlocking Nigeria’s Maritime Potential to Generate ₦70 Trillion Annually’

In the West and Central Africa region, 80% of containers are destined for Nigeria, but less than 20% actually arrive because of the decayed infrastructure—whether at Lagos, Port Harcourt, or other ports.

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IN SUMMARY

The N70 trillion will come from :

1. Port Infrastructure Development (N14 trillion annually)

2. Inland Waterways Development (N10-12 trillion annually).

3. Cabotage Enforcement (N8 trillion annually).

4. Oil Rig Taxation (N6 trillion annually—approximately 17% of the National Budget).

5. Oil and Gas Maritime Services (N16 trillion in annual losses)

6. Maritime Security and Blue Economy (N8-10 trillion annually).

7. Emerging Maritime Technologies (N5-6 trillion annually).

Dr. Olisa Agbakoba SAN Senior Partner, Olisa Agbakoba Legal (OAL), recently wrote to the minister of finance / coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun , on  Positioning Nigeria Towards A N1 Quadrillion Economy.

This time, he writes to the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr. Adegboyega Oyetola, on the subject: “Unlocking Nigeria’s Maritime Potential to Generate ₦70 Trillion Annually.

INTRODUCTION

The maritime sector is potentially Nigeria’s largest economic sector outside oil and gas.

The Nigerian Institution of Marine Engineers and Naval Architects (NIMENA) projects that the maritime industry could contribute approximately $44 billion (N70 trillion) annually to Nigeria’s GDP with improved governance and regulation.

However, we are currently losing enormous revenue due to inadequate legal frameworks, poor infrastructure, and insufficient private sector participation.

The adoption of the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) by the Federal Executive Council is most welcome.

The policy document contains comprehensive recommendations for legal and regulatory reforms.

What is now needed is decisive implementation to unleash the sector’s tremendous potential.

It is within this implementation context that I write to present specific, revenue-generating interventions that can accelerate the policy’s objectives and deliver quantifiable outcomes within one year.

• Cargo ships

THE OPPORTUNITY: N70 TRILLION IN ANNUAL RECOVERABLE REVENUE

OAL study reveals that Nigeria’s maritime sector presents extraordinary opportunities currently unrealised due to legal and regulatory gaps.

The transformative element of this proposal is that the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) already contains most of the required legal and institutional reforms needed to capture these opportunities.

I shall now proceed to set them out as follows:

1. Port Infrastructure Development (N14 trillion annually)

Ports are critical to the development of any economy.

If people produce goods but cannot move them, the economy cannot get ahead.

In the West and Central Africa region, 80% of containers are destined for Nigeria, but less than 20% actually arrive because of the decayed infrastructure—whether at Lagos, Port Harcourt, or other ports.

A recent report by Dynanmar, a Dutch consultancy firm, shows that Nigeria loses approximately N20 billion daily at the ports due to poor infrastructure and inefficiencies, with most revenue flowing to neighbouring ports, particularly Cotonou, Tema, and Lomé.Nigeria should be a maritime hub like Morocco, which is building one of the biggest sea ports to trade effectively with Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.

But we cannot be a maritime hub if our ports are in a bad state.

Yet the Lekki Deep Sea Port demonstrates the transformative potential—it is already attracting over $20 billion in investment and provides a replicable model for port modernization across Nigeria. Imagine what would come if all other ports were operating optimally.

The Apapa City Port requires massive overhaul. Strategic ports remain grossly underdeveloped or abandoned.

The Onitsha River Port lies idle despite its potential to transform inland cargo movement and decongest Lagos ports. New ports at Azumiri and Oraji are underdeveloped.

Port development projects in Akwa Ibom and Ogun states are commendable, but much more needs to be done.

To unlock this opportunity requires:

(a) enacting the Ports and Inland Waterways Development Act to modernise port operations, establish legal backing for Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in port development, reform governance of the Nigerian Ports Authority to improve efficiency and competitiveness, regulate inland waterway transport ensuring safe navigation and infrastructure investment, and provide incentives for private sector investment in modern port infrastructure and smart port technology;

(b) amending the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) Act (1999) to enhance private sector participation through robust PPP frameworks; and(c) amending the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) Act (1997) to mandate systematic dredging programmes, establish inland port development frameworks, and enable private sector participation in waterway management.

Achieving cargo dwell time of 48 hours or less and port throughput growth of 15% yearly or more are critical performance indicators.

Revenue streams include port tariffs and cargo handling fees from vessels using Nigerian ports, berthing and anchorage fees, container storage fees, transit trade fees for landlocked countries using Nigerian ports, and special economic zones for shipbuilding, repairs, and logistics.

2. Inland Waterways Development (N10-12 trillion annually).

The bad state of the ports is directly connected to our inland waterways. When the British were here, we had 42 inland waterways connected to roads and railways for cargo movement.

Nigeria must build a multimodal superhighway linking roads, trains, and inland waterways to maximize our trade potential.Nigeria’s inland waterways represent transformational economic corridors comparable to the Nile in Egypt.

Dredging the River Benue to Lokoja and the River Niger from Baro in Niger State to the Atlantic Ocean to a minimum draught of ten feet will enable transportation from Baro to Onitsha by speed boat in 90 minutes instead of 9 hours, and ferrying tonnes of yam and other farm produce from Makurdi to Onitsha on self-propelled barges in three hours.

Over 25,000 foreign vessels illegally trade in Nigeria’s coastal waters, representing both a national security challenge and massive economic loss.

The Nile River, at 26 to 36 feet deep, supports busy traffic of cargo and cruise ships, with cruises costing up to $500 per person for four days.

A fully operational Niger-Benue river system would dramatically reduce transportation costs, decongest road infrastructure, and create substantial tourism revenues comparable to Egypt’s Nile-based economic corridor.

This requires:(a) amendments to the NIWA Act to mandate systematic dredging programmes and inland port development;(b) enacting a Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) Act to regulate ocean space usage and avoid conflicts between industries (fishing, shipping, tourism, offshore energy), establishing a Marine Spatial Planning Authority to allocate maritime zones, setting rules for zoning fishing areas, shipping lanes, conservation zones, and renewable energy projects, and providing mechanisms for stakeholder consultation and dispute resolution;(c) enacting a Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture Act to strengthen regulation of fisheries and aquaculture ensuring sustainability and food security, introducing a national fisheries management system to enforce fishing quotas and conservation rules, creating a licensing system for commercial and artisanal fisheries, banning destructive fishing practices and regulating foreign fishing vessels, and strengthening penalties for Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing; and

(d) revitalisation of abandoned inland ports including the Onitsha River Port to restore the integrated multimodal transport system essential for economic competitiveness.

Revenue streams include toll charges on inland waterway transport managed by NIWA, revenue from ferry services for passenger and cargo transportation, foreign vessel licensing fees for companies fishing in Nigeria’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), commercial fishing permits for industrial-scale fishing companies, artisanal fishing licenses for small-scale fishers, and value-added income from fish processing industries.

3. Cabotage Enforcement (N8 trillion annually)

Over 25,000 foreign vessels illegally trade in Nigeria’s coastal waters, representing both a national security challenge and massive economic loss.

The National Policy specifically recommends reviewing the Coastal and Inland Shipping (Cabotage) Act 2003, strengthening institutions for effective enforcement, encouraging inter-agency synergy for implementation, and streamlining access to the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF).

To capture this opportunity requires:(a) amending the Cabotage Act (2003) to establish strict enforcement mechanisms and compliance requirements, with penalties including vessel seizure for violations, thereby ensuring Nigerian-crewed vessels constitute 50% or more of coastal trade and preventing the ongoing haemorrhaging of revenue to foreign operators;

(b) strengthening inter-agency collaboration between NIMASA, NPA, NIWA, Nigerian Navy, Marine Police, and security agencies for better governance and coordinated enforcement; and

(c) establishing a National Blue Economy Commission as a centralized body to coordinate activities across ministries of transport, environment, fisheries, petroleum, and trade, and develop marine economic zones to attract investments.

Revenue streams include registration fees from Nigerian-flagged vessels under NIMASA, fees from foreign vessels operating in Nigerian waters under the Cabotage Act, seafarers’ certification and training fees from maritime workers and companies, and increased domestic shipping revenues from Nigerian vessels.

4. Oil Rig Taxation (N6 trillion annually—approximately 17% of the National Budget)

Oil rigs have formed a cartel for tax avoidance. OAL is representing NIMASA in a tax avoidance case brought by oil rig companies.

NIMASA has confirmed that tax is currently not collected from oil rigs.Capturing this revenue requires:(a) amending the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) Act (2007) to expand its mandate beyond shipping, marine labor, and environmental protection to include responsibilities for marine conservation and blue economy oversight, establish a robust taxation framework for oil rigs operating in Nigerian waters, increase penalties for maritime pollution, illegal vessel operations, and labor violations, and strengthen NIMASA’s role in coastal tourism and renewable energy initiatives;(b) enacting a Marine Pollution Control and Climate Adaptation Act to strengthen environmental protection measures addressing pollution, oil spills, and climate risks, establish stricter penalties for marine pollution including oil spills, plastic waste, and ship-based pollution, require all offshore oil and gas companies to develop spill response and cleanup plans, support coastal communities with climate adaptation strategies including shoreline protection and disaster response, and mandate green shipping initiatives including reduced carbon emissions for vessels;(c) amending the Petroleum Industry Act (2021) to strengthen regulations on offshore oil and gas drilling to reduce environmental risks and introduce mandatory decommissioning funds for oil companies to clean up decommissioned offshore platforms;(d) creating a Marine Pollution Task Force to monitor and enforce environmental regulations across ports, coastal industries, and offshore platforms; and(e) amending the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) Act (1978) to update and increase Nigeria’s control over deep-sea mining and marine biodiversity conservation, and introduce provisions for sustainable offshore energy projects including offshore wind farms.

Revenue streams include royalties from offshore oil drilling and gas extraction, corporate taxes on oil companies operating in deep-sea oil fields, fees for pipeline installations and seabed resource extraction rights, tax revenue from private-sector investments in fish farms and marine aquaculture, revenue from private investment in offshore wind farms and tidal energy projects, and carbon credit sales under global climate agreements for using clean marine energy.

5. Oil and Gas Maritime Services (N16 trillion in annual losses)

This presents enormous losses across four critical value chains that exclude Nigerians.

Over $1 billion worth of legal work annually is lost to foreign firms. Nigerian shipping companies are not engaged to lift our crude oil products.

Funds accruable to Nigeria from crude oil production are domiciled in foreign banks and sometimes held for months before remittance to the Central Bank of Nigeria.

No Nigerian marine insurance company is involved in insurance underwriting for the over 1,000 oil rigs in Nigerian waters.

This stands in stark contrast to Saudi Arabia’s successful IKTVA program, which mandates and enforces local content, ensuring value retention within its economy.

To recapture these losses requires:(a) amending the Merchant Shipping Act (2007) to regulate the shipping industry, ship registration, and safety, and reviewing the legal framework for carriage of cargo from Free on Board (FOB) to Cost Insurance and Freight (CIF) to support growth of a national fleet;(b) strengthening enforcement of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (Local Content Act) 2010 across all excluded value chains including legal services, shipping, banking, and insurance;(c) establishing the Maritime Development Bank to provide critical maritime assets and financing for indigenous capacity development; and(d) developing public-private partnerships (PPPs) in port expansion, inland waterway development, shipbuilding, and maritime infrastructure through tax incentives for investments in sustainable fishing, tourism, and renewable energy.Revenue streams include recaptured legal services fees, shipping revenues from Nigerian vessels lifting crude oil, timely remittance of oil revenues to CBN, and marine insurance underwriting fees.

6. Maritime Security and Blue Economy (N8-10 trillion annually)

This revenue potential comes through increased port traffic, reduced insurance premiums, and enhanced foreign direct investment in maritime infrastructure.

The Deep Blue Project, inaugurated in June 2021, has proven effective—the International Maritime Bureau acknowledged a 30 per cent drop in piracy cases in 2021 alone, demonstrating measurable return on security investments.

However, only a coast guard can adequately protect and assure maritime safety and security.

A fully secured maritime environment would attract international shipping lines currently avoiding Nigerian waters, dramatically increasing port revenues and related economic activities.

Achieving insurance premium reduction of 40% or more through sustained security would further unlock this sector’s potential.

This requires:(a) strengthening implementation of the Suppression of Piracy and Other Maritime Offences (SPOMO) Act of 2019 as specifically recommended in the National Policy;(b) enacting a Coast Guard Establishment Act to create a dedicated institution for maritime safety and security;(c) enacting a Maritime Security and Piracy Suppression Act to strengthen legal measures to combat piracy, sea robbery, and other maritime crimes, provide additional legal backing for Nigerian Navy and Marine Police to enforce security in Nigerian waters, establish specialized maritime courts to handle piracy, smuggling, and maritime security violations, and strengthen public-private partnerships for maritime surveillance including deploying technology for monitoring Nigerian waters;

(d) strengthening the Nigerian Navy and Marine Police through better funding and technology for coastal and offshore surveillance; and

(e) improving collaboration with ECOWAS and Gulf of Guinea partners for regional maritime security.Nigeria should also align with international and regional frameworks including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), International Maritime Organization (IMO) Conventions (MARPOL for pollution control, SOLAS for safety, STCW for seafarers), Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Paris Agreement on Climate Change, FAO Port State Measures Agreement for combating illegal fishing, African Union Blue Economy Strategy, African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), Gulf of Guinea Maritime Security Strategy, and ECOWAS Integrated Maritime Strategy (EIMS).

Revenue streams include fees from shipping companies for naval escort services in piracy-prone areas, revenue from joint maritime security operations with foreign shipping companies, fines imposed on vessels violating maritime laws (illegal fishing, pollution, piracy), confiscation and auctioning of vessels involved in illegal activities, tax revenue from hotels, resorts, and tourism operators along Nigeria’s coastline, fees from coastal ecotourism activities including whale watching, diving, and marine parks, entry fees for protected marine areas and islands, berthing fees from cruise ships docking at Nigerian ports, licenses for private yacht operations and water sports businesses, and luxury tourism taxes on high-end marine tourism experiences.

7. Emerging Maritime Technologies (N5-6 trillion annually)

This revenue potential comes through early adoption advantages and positioning Nigeria as a regional hub for digital maritime services.

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will implement mandatory requirements for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) by January 1, 2028.

Early implementation before this deadline would give Nigeria competitive advantage in West African maritime services, attract technology investments, and capture digital trade documentation fees currently lost to foreign platforms.Nigeria must:

(a) enact the Legal Framework for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) to position Nigeria for emerging maritime technologies before IMO’s mandatory 2028 requirements;(b) enact the Electronic Bill of Lading (eB/L) Framework to digitalise maritime trade documentation and capture fees currently lost to foreign platforms;

(c) enact a Blue Economy Act to establish a comprehensive legal framework for Nigeria’s blue economy covering marine governance, resource management, and economic development, with provisions establishing the National Blue Economy Commission to coordinate activities across ministries and agencies, providing clear rules on marine resource allocation, licensing, and conservation, defining legal responsibilities for the private sector, local communities, and government agencies, and outlining penalties for environmental violations, illegal fishing, and marine pollution;(d) amend the Sea Fisheries Act (1992) to increase fines and penalties for IUU fishing, strengthen monitoring and surveillance of Nigeria’s fishing waters using satellite tracking and observer programs, and require fishing vessels to adopt sustainable practices and report catch data transparently; and

(e) support capacity building and research institutions—support universities and research institutes in marine sciences and innovation to develop indigenous expertise.Revenue streams include revenue from pharmaceutical companies using marine resources for drug development, licensing fees for marine research and bioprospecting companies exploring Nigeria’s waters, tax income from seaweed farming for export as food, cosmetics, and biofuel raw material, government partnerships with investors in marine-based biofuels, government revenue from companies extracting rare earth minerals, manganese, and cobalt from Nigeria’s EEZ, taxes on companies exploring for marine-based minerals for battery production, income from controlled sand dredging for construction and land reclamation, and licensing fees for coral harvesting for medicinal and scientific purposes.

CONCLUSION

Nigeria’s maritime sector presents a N70 trillion annual opportunity (as projected by NIMENA) currently unrealised due to legal and regulatory gaps.

The transformative element of this proposal is that the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025-2034) already contains most of the required legal and institutional reforms.

The roadmap exists; what is needed is decisive implementation to translate policy into law and law into measurable economic outcomes.

This policy paper outlines a comprehensive legislative framework comprising nine new laws to be enacted (Ports and Inland Waterways Development Act, Marine Spatial Planning Act, Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture Act, Marine Pollution Control and Climate Adaptation Act, Coast Guard Establishment Act, Maritime Security and Piracy Suppression Act, Legal Framework for MASS, Electronic Bill of Laden.

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Soludo’s Historic Victory and the Anambra Renaissance

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By Christian ABURIME

When the Governor of Anambra State, Professor Chukwuma Charles Soludo, CFR, took the microphone in Awka on Sunday morning to deliver his victory speech, he did so not just as a re-elected governor, but as the beneficiary of something significant in Nigerian politics: an unambiguous popular mandate. His resounding re-election marks not just a personal triumph, but a watershed moment in Anambra’s democratic journey.

With 422,664 votes representing 73 percent of ballots cast, and victories across all 21 local government areas, Governor Soludo’s triumph transcends the arithmetic of electoral politics. It represents a decisive endorsement of governance, a validation of vision, and perhaps most significantly, a repudiation of the cynicism that too often characterises our democratic discourse.

The statistics from Saturday’s election deserve careful scrutiny, for they reveal a narrative far more compelling than mere electoral victory. Four years ago, when Governor Soludo first ascended to the governorship with 112,000 votes amid low voter turnout, skeptics questioned the strength of his mandate. On Saturday, the people of Anambra answered those doubts emphatically. Voter participation broke the historic 20 percent ceiling, reaching 22 percent, a milestone achievement in a state and nation where electoral apathy has become endemic.

Of course, this is not simply about percentages. It represents a fundamental shift in civic engagement, suggesting that when citizens believe their votes matter, when they see tangible results from governance, and when the electoral process inspires confidence, they would participate. The contrast between Governor Soludo’s initial 112,000 votes and his current 422,664 is not just a mere testimonial but a concrete one that the people have spoken emphatically

Governor Soludo’s gracious acknowledgement of INEC’s performance deserves particular attention.

His description of Saturday’s election as “the best election INEC has organised in Anambra so far” is quite significant, coming from a sitting governor with every incentive to remain diplomatically silent about the electoral body. His specific praise for INEC’s ICT department and the real-time upload of results on the IReV portal, with over 99 percent of polling unit results uploaded by midnight, also speaks to the technological transformation gradually reshaping Nigeria’s electoral landscape.

Besides, the transparency enabled by technology has been the great democratiser of this election cycle. When every citizen can download polling unit results in real-time, when the pathway from ballot box to final tally is illuminated by digital accountability, the space for manipulation narrows dramatically. And Governor Soludo’s victory is thus doubly legitimate: won at the polls and verified by digital precision.

An instructive element of Governor Soludo’s victory speech was his praise for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as a “true democrat” committed to free and fair elections in Anambra. For long, ours has been a political culture where federal might has historically been deployed to influence state elections, but the presidential restraint in the Anambra election represents a form of democratic maturity that should not go unnoticed.

When presidents allow states to choose their own leaders without federal interference, when ruling parties accept defeat gracefully, when the machinery of state remains neutral in electoral contests, these become the building blocks of democratic consolidation.

In another dimension, Governor Soludo’s margin of victory, defeating his closest rival by more than 320,000 votes, creates an interesting political dynamic. Such comprehensive victories can be double-edged swords. They provide governors with the political capital to pursue ambitious agendas without the constant distraction of defending narrow mandates. Yet they also eliminate the moderating influence of competitive pressure, potentially fostering complacency or insularity.

But the governor’s gracious words to his fellow contestants, acknowledging that “sixteen of us were on the ballot, and obviously, one person will win”, suggest an awareness of this dynamic. His extension of fellowship to all contestants and his description of politics as “a contest of ideas, not enmity” reflects a maturity that Anambra’s political culture increasingly demands.

Yet, here lies the paradox of overwhelming victory: expectations would now soar proportionally to the mandate received. When nearly three-quarters of voters endorse your leadership, the burden of delivery becomes correspondingly heavier. Governor Soludo’s closing declaration, “you ain’t seen anything yet”, is both promise and prophecy, both aspiration and obligation.

In fact, as a leader who is fondly called ‘Oluatuegwu’ (one who doesn’t fear work), Governor Soludo had already got back to work before his victory declaration, calling the Commissioner for Budget for briefing while awaiting election results! For him, there is no luxury of time to indulge in any victory celebration. As he said, “It’s time to get back to work!”

He now has the leverage to go all the way and turn Anambra into an axis of sustainable flourishing of the African-Dubai-Taiwan-Silicon Valley

The broader significance of Saturday’s election may lie not in Anambra alone but in what it represents for Nigerian democracy. When electoral technology works, when results reflect genuine popular will, when incumbents are judged on performance rather than partisan or sectarian loyalties, when voter participation increases, we glimpse the democracy Nigeria could become.

Yes, Governor Soludo’s victory is historic not only because he won in all 21 local government areas but because of how he won: through a process widely acknowledged as transparent, through a mandate clearly expressed, through civic participation notably increased.
Indeed, Anambra has spoken. And in a democracy, that is both the beginning and the end, the alpha and omega verdict.

As the formidable ‘Oluatuegwu’ begins his second term with this strengthened mandate, the people of Anambra have sent an unmistakable message: we have employed you again. In response, the governor spoke of moving “into high gear to deliver more for the good of Anambra.” A new era begins now.

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