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Hardship: Nigeria’s inflation drops signal economic recovery – CPPE, Economists

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Nigerian economists and the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise have explained that the two consecutive drops in Nigeria’s inflation rate signal that the country’s economy is recovering from hardship

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, the CEO of SD & D Capital Management, Gbolade Idakolo, and a Don at Lead City University in Ibadan, Prof. Godwin Oyedokun, disclosed this on Monday.

They spoke in reaction to Nigeria’s February 2025 inflation drop.

On Monday, Nigeria’s inflation lowered for the second time to 23.18 percent in February 2025 from 24.48 percent recorded in the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest Consumer Price Index.

The data showed that food inflation also declined in February to 23.51 percent from 26.08 percent in January.

Nigeria’s inflation fell massively to 24.48 percent in January after CPI rebasing.

However, while the data from NBS showed the inflation rate is lowering, the cost of living in Nigeria has remained elevated.

Nigeria’s deceleration in inflation shows macro stability — CPPE

The deceleration in the inflation rate can be attributed to moderation in macro stability, according to CPPE.

Yusuf stressed that the drop in exchange rate volatility and drop in premium motor spirit prices are contributing factors to the decline in Nigeria’s inflation rate.

He, however, emphasised that Nigeria’s inflation remains high, noting that the government needs to come up with policies to bring down the prices of basic items, such as staple foods and pharmaceuticals.

“The further deceleration in inflation in February can be attributed to two factors. First is the base effect.

When you relate the 2025 figure to 2024, it is expected to see further narrowing because the inflation rate is mainly year on year.

This trend is likely to continue for the larger part of 2025. The second part is due to moderation in macro stability. We are beginning to drop in the volatility in the exchange rate in the last few months.

“This is a key factor because the exchange rate is a major driver of inflation. Also, slight reduction in energy prices such as PMS.“

However, the inflation rate of 23.18 percent is still high. This means that there is a lot of work to be done to ease inflationary pressures on citizens.

The government should take some urgent steps to bring down the price of basic products. Foods, pharmaceutical products, cooking gas, and staple foods (bread, noodles, rice)- should be top on the agenda of government.

“Another good news is that there is an increase in food production on account of improved security,”.

Pressures driving higher prices are easing — Prof Oyedokun

Oyedotun said the latest inflation drop suggests that the factor driving higher prices may be stabilising, which could provide relief to consumers and businesses.

According to him, the second consecutive drop in headline and food inflation, with figures at 23.18% and 23.51%, respectively, could be viewed as a positive indicator of an easing inflationary trend.

He said this suggests that the pressure driving prices higher may be stabilising, which could provide some relief to consumers and businesses.

He noted further that improved supply chain conditions, seasonal factors that affect food production and prices, government interventions, and monetary policies are factors contributing to the inflation rate decline.

Regarding the February inflation drop outside the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing, several factors could contribute.

“These might include improved supply chain conditions, seasonal factors that affect food production and prices, or government interventions that stabilise markets.“

Additionally, any recent policy measures aimed at curbing inflation, such as adjustments in interest rates or subsidies for essential goods, could also play a role,” he said.

On why the inflation drop has not been reflected in market prices, he said, “As for the inflation figures not aligning with the reality of elevated prices for goods, this discrepancy could stem from various reasons.“

The CPI may not fully capture specific categories of goods that are experiencing sharp price increases.

Additionally, inflation measurements are often averages and may not reflect localised price changes or the unique purchasing patterns of different consumers.

“Factors such as producer price increases, distribution costs, and market dynamics can also lead to a situation where prices remain high despite a reported decline in inflation rates”.

Why inflation rate decline doesn’t reflect on the price drop — Idakolo

Idakolo said Nigeria’s inflation figures do not reflect the general price of goods because of the strength of the naira- exchange rates and interest have remained high.

“The inflation figures are not generally reflecting on the price of goods because certain fundamentals of the economy, like the strength of the Naira, exchange rate, and interest rates, remain high, which have made it difficult for the impact of lower inflation to be felt by the people.

However, if the government continues to drive down prices due to targeted policies, it would only be a matter of time before people start feeling the impact of reduced inflation on the economy,”.

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33 Nigerian Banks Beat CBN’s Recapialisation with ₦4.65trn Combined Capital Base

The recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well­positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”

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•Governor of CBN, Olayemi Cardoso

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has wrapped up the banking sector recapitalisation programme it introduced two years ago (March 2024-March 31, 2026) with 33 banks successfully met the requirements deadline.

The banks raised a total of ₦4.65 trillion in new capital, according to a statement signed by Olubukola A. Akinwunmi, the Director, Banking Supervision and Hakama Sidi Ali (Mrs.), the Ag. Director, Corporate Communications.

It said that the recapialisation exercises recorded strong participation from both domestic and international investors, with 72.55% of capital sourced locally and 27.45% from international markets, reflecting sustained confidence in the Nigerian banking sector.

The statement noted that the Governor of CBN, Olayemi Cardoso said “the recapitalisation programme has strengthened the capital base of Nigerian banks, reinforcing the resilience of the financial system and ensuring it is well­positioned to support economic growth and withstand domestic and external shocks.”

“The CBN confirms that 33 banks have met the revised minimum capital requirements established under the programme.

A limited number of institutions remain subject to ongoing regulatory and judicial processes, which are being addressed through established supervisory and legal frameworks.

“All banks remain fully operational, ensuring continued access to banking services for customers.

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Afreximbank Leads $4bn Financing for Dangote Refinery with $2.5bn Commitment

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African Export-Import Bank has underwritten $2.5 billion in a $4 billion senior syndicated term loan for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, in a move aimed at strengthening the refinery’s financial position and supporting its long-term growth and expansion strategy.

The five-year facility, arranged alongside Access Bank as co-Mandated Lead Arrangers, is designed to consolidate existing debt, optimise the refinery’s capital structure and align its financing with current operational realities.

The transaction marks a significant milestone for the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest refining and petrochemical complex with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.

Afreximbank’s $2.5 billion participation represents the largest share of the syndicate, underscoring its strategic role in mobilising capital for industrial projects across the continent.

The bank said the financing aligns with its mandate to promote industrialisation, reduce reliance on imported petroleum products and deepen intra-African trade.

Since refining operations commenced in February 2024, Afreximbank has played a key role in supporting the project, including providing a $1 billion working capital facility and acting as financial adviser on the Naira-for-Crude initiative, which facilitates crude procurement and product sales in local currency.

Speaking during a strategy session in Cairo, Egypt, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Afreximbank, George Elombi, said the bank’s continued backing reflects confidence in indigenous African enterprises.

“We take immense pride in being the single largest provider of financing to the Dangote Group. We do so primarily because Dangote is African,” he said.

“When we invest in ourselves, we do more than create jobs and wealth or expand government revenues; we build a secure and resilient future for our continent”

Elombi disclosed that Afreximbank has committed about $15 billion to Dangote Group since 2015, highlighting the scale of its long-term partnership with the conglomerate.

President and Chief Executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, described the financing as a critical step in positioning the refinery for its next phase of expansion.

“This financing marks an important step in strengthening the financial foundation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals and positions the business for the next phase of its growth,” he said.

“We appreciate Afreximbank’s continued support and confidence in our vision to build world-class industrial capacity that serves Nigeria, Africa and global markets.”

The syndicated loan attracted strong participation from a mix of African and international financial institutions, reflecting sustained investor confidence in the refinery as a transformative industrial asset in advancing Africa’s energy security, reducing import dependence and supporting the continent’s broader industrialisation agenda.

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BUA Foods Plc Reports Strong 2025 Performance with ₦1.77 Trillion Revenue, Proposes Record ₦28 Dividend per Share

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Leading Nigerian food manufacturer BUA Foods Plc has announced robust full-year 2025 audited results, with revenue climbing 16% to ₦1.77 trillion from ₦1.53 trillion in 2024.

The growth was driven by sustained consumer demand for the company’s core staples sugar, flour, pasta, and rice alongside higher sales volumes and strategic pricing amid a challenging economic environment marked by inflationary pressures on households.

Profit after tax nearly doubled, rising 95% to ₦518.4 billion, while gross profit surged to ₦737.3 billion from ₦540.8 billion the previous year.

Operating profit also increased significantly to ₦656.6 billion.In a strong signal of confidence in its outlook and commitment to shareholder value, the Board of Directors has proposed a final dividend of ₦28 per ordinary share of 50 kobo.

This represents a 115% increase from the ₦13 per share paid in 2024, translating to a total payout of approximately ₦504 billion, subject to approval by shareholders at the company’s 2026 Annual General Meeting.

Chairman Abdul Samad Rabiu highlighted the results, stating that the substantial dividend hike underscores the company’s dedication to rewarding investors while continuing to invest in business expansion and operational efficiency.

BUA Foods, a major player in Nigeria’s food processing sector controlled by billionaire Abdul Samad Rabiu, has continued to benefit from scale advantages, market expansion, and resilient demand for essential food products despite broader economic headwinds.

The company’s shares have reacted positively in recent trading, reflecting investor optimism over the strong earnings and generous dividend proposal.

Full details of the financial statements were filed with the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) on Monday.

Analysts view the performance as a testament to BUA Foods’ robust business model and ability to navigate Nigeria’s macroeconomic challenges through volume growth and cost discipline.

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