Business
Hardship: Nigeria’s inflation drops signal economic recovery – CPPE, Economists
Nigerian economists and the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise have explained that the two consecutive drops in Nigeria’s inflation rate signal that the country’s economy is recovering from hardship
The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Muda Yusuf, the CEO of SD & D Capital Management, Gbolade Idakolo, and a Don at Lead City University in Ibadan, Prof. Godwin Oyedokun, disclosed this on Monday.
They spoke in reaction to Nigeria’s February 2025 inflation drop.
On Monday, Nigeria’s inflation lowered for the second time to 23.18 percent in February 2025 from 24.48 percent recorded in the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest Consumer Price Index.
The data showed that food inflation also declined in February to 23.51 percent from 26.08 percent in January.
Nigeria’s inflation fell massively to 24.48 percent in January after CPI rebasing.
However, while the data from NBS showed the inflation rate is lowering, the cost of living in Nigeria has remained elevated.
Nigeria’s deceleration in inflation shows macro stability — CPPE
The deceleration in the inflation rate can be attributed to moderation in macro stability, according to CPPE.
Yusuf stressed that the drop in exchange rate volatility and drop in premium motor spirit prices are contributing factors to the decline in Nigeria’s inflation rate.
He, however, emphasised that Nigeria’s inflation remains high, noting that the government needs to come up with policies to bring down the prices of basic items, such as staple foods and pharmaceuticals.
“The further deceleration in inflation in February can be attributed to two factors. First is the base effect.
When you relate the 2025 figure to 2024, it is expected to see further narrowing because the inflation rate is mainly year on year.
This trend is likely to continue for the larger part of 2025. The second part is due to moderation in macro stability. We are beginning to drop in the volatility in the exchange rate in the last few months.
“This is a key factor because the exchange rate is a major driver of inflation. Also, slight reduction in energy prices such as PMS.“
However, the inflation rate of 23.18 percent is still high. This means that there is a lot of work to be done to ease inflationary pressures on citizens.
The government should take some urgent steps to bring down the price of basic products. Foods, pharmaceutical products, cooking gas, and staple foods (bread, noodles, rice)- should be top on the agenda of government.
“Another good news is that there is an increase in food production on account of improved security,”.
Pressures driving higher prices are easing — Prof Oyedokun
Oyedotun said the latest inflation drop suggests that the factor driving higher prices may be stabilising, which could provide relief to consumers and businesses.
According to him, the second consecutive drop in headline and food inflation, with figures at 23.18% and 23.51%, respectively, could be viewed as a positive indicator of an easing inflationary trend.
He said this suggests that the pressure driving prices higher may be stabilising, which could provide some relief to consumers and businesses.
He noted further that improved supply chain conditions, seasonal factors that affect food production and prices, government interventions, and monetary policies are factors contributing to the inflation rate decline.
Regarding the February inflation drop outside the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing, several factors could contribute.
“These might include improved supply chain conditions, seasonal factors that affect food production and prices, or government interventions that stabilise markets.“
Additionally, any recent policy measures aimed at curbing inflation, such as adjustments in interest rates or subsidies for essential goods, could also play a role,” he said.
On why the inflation drop has not been reflected in market prices, he said, “As for the inflation figures not aligning with the reality of elevated prices for goods, this discrepancy could stem from various reasons.“
The CPI may not fully capture specific categories of goods that are experiencing sharp price increases.
Additionally, inflation measurements are often averages and may not reflect localised price changes or the unique purchasing patterns of different consumers.
“Factors such as producer price increases, distribution costs, and market dynamics can also lead to a situation where prices remain high despite a reported decline in inflation rates”.
Why inflation rate decline doesn’t reflect on the price drop — Idakolo
Idakolo said Nigeria’s inflation figures do not reflect the general price of goods because of the strength of the naira- exchange rates and interest have remained high.
“The inflation figures are not generally reflecting on the price of goods because certain fundamentals of the economy, like the strength of the Naira, exchange rate, and interest rates, remain high, which have made it difficult for the impact of lower inflation to be felt by the people.
However, if the government continues to drive down prices due to targeted policies, it would only be a matter of time before people start feeling the impact of reduced inflation on the economy,”.
Business
BREAKING: First Abu Dhabi Bank to establish branch in Nigeria
First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) is the UAE’s largest bank, formed in 2017 by the merger of First Gulf Bank and National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
•Photo: Nigeria’s Minister of State for Finance, Dr Doris Uzoka- Anite with the executives of First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB)
First Abu Dhabi Bank is prepared to establish a branch in Nigeria.
This was the outcome of a strategic discussion between Nigeria’s Minister of State for Finance, Dr Doris Uzoka- Anite with the executives of First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) on enhanced financial collaboration ahead of the Bank’s plans to establish a branch in Nigeria.
“This engagement reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s reforms and our commitment to attracting credible global capital to support growth and development,” said the minister on her X.
Uzoka- Anite emphasised that the engagement focused on opportunities for strengthened financial intermediation, increased capital flows, and expanded banking services to support Nigeria’s economic reforms and development priorities.
Uzoka-Anite reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to creating an enabling environment for global investors, noting that the planned entry of FAB reflects growing international confidence in Nigeria’s reforms and improving investment climate.
A background check on the Bank showed that First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) is the UAE’s largest bank, formed in 2017 by the merger of First Gulf Bank and National Bank of Abu Dhabi.
Headquartered in Abu Dhabi, it offers corporate, investment, and personal banking services across 20+ markets. FAB is recognized as one of the world’s safest institutions.
Aiming to be the best Arab bank for the Arab world, it recently reported a 22% increase in net profit for Q4 2024, driven by strong business volumes.
Business
Nigeria’s economy may be back from the brink — The Economist
Improvements in macroeconomic stability are restoring investor confidence.
• President Bola Tinubu
A spate of painful reforms is beginning to show results.
When nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo, the elected president, set out to clean up the economy after years of mismanagement by military governments.
Initially dismissed by critics, by the end of his second term Mr Obasanjo’s liberal policies had tamed inflation, spurred investment and raised annual gdp growth to around 7 percent.
It didn’t last. Over the past decade gdp per person has fallen.
Yet evidence is now mounting that another stretch of “golden years”, as one analyst calls the period following Mr Obasanjo’s liberalisation, may be on the cards.
In the past two and a half years Bola Tinubu, who in Mr Obasanjo’s day was the governor of Lagos and was elected president in 2023, has been enacting his own set of structural reforms.
As he gears up to run for a second term in 2027, they may be starting to pay off.
It is difficult to overstate the mess Mr Tinubu inherited.
When he took office in 2023, the country’s central bank had $7 billion (equivalent to 1.4% of gdp at the time) in obligations it could not meet, prompting international investors to flee en masse.
The bank’s credibility had been dented by a recklessly loose monetary policy, its mismanagement of dwindling foreign-exchange reserves and efforts to maintain an unsustainable tiered exchange-rate system.
Poverty has risen. But it looks as though Mr Tinubu’s bitter medicine is helping.
In 2022 alone the cash-strapped government spent some $10 billion, equivalent to 2.2% of gdp, on a ruinous fuel subsidy.
To fix things, Mr Tinubu’s government got on with a package of drastic structural reforms. It abolished the fuel subsidy and abandoned that multi-tiered system of dollar-pegged exchange rates, largely allowing the naira to float.
The Central Bank aggressively tightened monetary policy to curb the resulting bout of inflation.
The government also moved to improve security in the Niger Delta and offered a range of tax incentives to investors to boost dwindling oil production.
Nearly three years on, Nigeria’s 230 million people, especially the poor and the middle class, are still reeling from increases in fuel and food prices.
Poverty has risen. But it looks as though Mr Tinubu’s bitter medicine is helping.
The annual inflation rate, which hit a nearly 30-year high of 34.8% in December 2024, fell to 15.2% in December 2025.
Growth is returning.
The IMF expects the economy to expand by 4.4% in 2026.
Following two steep devaluations in 2023, the naira has stabilised (see chart).
The Central Bank’s foreign-exchange reserves have risen to $46 billion, their highest level in seven years.
Improvements in macroeconomic stability are restoring investor confidence.
On January 22nd Shell, a British company, said it hopes in 2027 to finalise plans, with partners, to develop a $20 billion offshore oilfield that has been sitting untapped for over 20 years.
Exxon Mobil, an American firm, has committed $1.5 billion to deep water development until 2027.
Local business leaders are more upbeat, too.
Oil-and-gas production is rising, much of it driven by local firms plugging leaks and improving output in onshore projects in the Niger Delta, which has become safer thanks to Mr Tinubu’s focus on security there.
All this should give the government some fiscal breathing room, particularly as the cheaper naira begins to raise the competitiveness of Nigeria’s non-oil exports such as cocoa and cashew nuts.
Recent reforms to taxation and tax collection, Mr Tinubu’s latest project, should help improve revenues further in the coming years.
Falling inflation should eventually begin to ease the cost-of-living pain.
However, even optimists have plenty of reasons to be cautious.
Savings from the fuel subsidy have largely been spent on servicing the public debt, which is still rising as the government continues to borrow against future sales of oil to fund its deficit.
Currently, some 60% of revenues are consumed by debt service.
On January 20th Nigeria’s finance minister said the government hoped to borrow less this year, but current budget projections suggest that is not realistic.
“The government is broke.
There’s nothing to invest in the future, that’s the truth,” says Esili Eigbe of Escap, a Nigerian consultancy.
Unless the government cuts civil-service salaries, another big chunk of spending, or is able to restructure loans to make them cheaper, the extra revenue from recent tax reforms looks unlikely to be available for improving infrastructure or to pay for public health care and education.
“They’ve brought the deficit down, but they don’t seem to show any greater ability to get capital projects out of the door,“ says David Cowan, an economist at Citi, an American bank.
All this means that it will take a long time for ordinary Nigerians, who until now have mostly borne the pain of Mr Tinubu’s reforms, to feel any benefit.
Buying food has been a particular struggle, not just for the 42% of Nigerians who live on less than $3 a day, the World Bank’s definition of extreme poverty, but also for the urban middle class.
The price of a kilo of rice has nearly quadrupled since May 2023, while wages have barely budged.
Even though inflation is now falling, many still struggle to afford enough to eat.
Mr Obasanjo’s reforms in the early 2000s aimed to increase economic dynamism and improve people’s lives by attracting fresh capital investment into newly privatised sectors.
By the end of his second term in 2007, domestic companies were worth $85 billion, up from $3 billion in 1999.
Mr Tinubu, by contrast, has so far focused on restoring stability and reviving the country’s ailing oil-and-gas sector. To bring about more golden years for Nigerians, he needs to go beyond that. ■
Credit: The Economist
Business
FOBTOB seeks fresh dialogue over ban on alcohol in sachets and PET bottles
Therefore, while NAFDAC states that factories will not be shut down, the policy will result in economic shutdown, particularly for indigenous manufacturers and informal-sector participants.
Food, Beverages and Tobacco Senior Staff Association (FOBTOB) said on Thursday that the NAFDAC’s blanket ban on satchets alcohol is economically destructive.
FOBTOB, there call out for a fresh dialogue comprising the stakeholders in the industry, the National Assembly, the Federal Ministry of Health, NAFDAC and Civil society organizations to engage in open, transparent, and evidence-based dialogue aimed at crafting policies that protect public health without destroying livelihoods or creating regulatory contradictions.
Reacting to a press release issued by the Director-General of the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) today regarding the enforcement of a ban on alcoholic beverages packaged in sachets and small containers below 200ml, FOBTOB President, Jimoh Oyibo, disclosed that while the association acknowledge and fully supports the shared objective of protecting children, adolescents, and vulnerable populations from the harmful use of alcohol
“We must express deep concern that the approach adopted by NAFDAC is disproportionate, economically disruptive, and inconsistent with broader regulatory and public health realities in Nigeria,” he said.
PUBLIC HEALTH IS IMPORTANT — BUT POLICY MUST BE BALANCED AND EVIDENCE-BASED
No reasonable stakeholder disputes that excessive alcohol consumption is harmful.
However, public health challenges require holistic, data-driven, and enforceable solutions, not blanket prohibitions that fail to address root causes.
Alcohol abuse among minors is primarily a challenge of effective enforcement, parental responsibility, public education, and social regulation, rather than one of packaging format.
The size of an alcohol container does not in itself, confer safety, nor does increasing pack sizes prevent access by minors.
The global public health evidence consistently demonstrates that behavioural regulation, age-restriction enforcement, education-driven interventions, and appropriate sanctions are more effective in addressing underage alcohol consumption than blanket product bans.
NAFDAC’S CLAIM ON UNINTERRUPTED COMPANY OPERATIONS – CONTRADICTED BY EVIDENCE
Notwithstanding representations made by affected stakeholders, access to these depots has not been restored by NAFDAC, and this is affecting normal business operations negatively.
As a labour union, the livelihoods of our members will be adversely affected by the closure of manufacturers’ depots.
We have compiled records of these enforcement actions for reference and ongoing engagement, which are presented alongside this article.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES CANNOT BE IGNORED
For many indigenous distillers, blenders, and distributors, sachet and sub-200ml packaging does not constitute a marginal segment of their operations but rather is the foundation of the core business model.
These packaging formats were intentionally developed to serve low-income consumers, informal retail channels, and rural markets where considerations such as affordability, portability, and unit pricing determine demand.
Also, the claim that the policy only affects “two packages” does not fully convey the magnitude of the impact.
In operational terms:
Production lines are configured specifically for sachet and small-format bottling.
Distribution networks are optimized for high-volume, low-unit sales
Retail reach is largely dependent on maintaining affordability at the lowest price points.
For many small and medium-scale operators, this transition will not be financially attainable.
Therefore, while NAFDAC states that factories will not be shut down, the policy will result in economic shutdown, particularly for indigenous manufacturers and informal-sector participants.
The ban on sachets and small containers below 200ml also risks tilting the market in favour of larger, better-capitalized multinational players who can absorb retooling costs and pivot to premium pack sizes.
Smaller local producers, who rely overwhelmingly on sachet sales, are disproportionately harmed, raising concerns about market concentration and unfair competitive outcomes.
Public health and economic survival are not mutually exclusive.
Nigeria deserves policies that are balanced, humane, enforceable, and fair.
The solution lies in moderation, education, and enforcement, not in policies that punish many while failing to address the real drivers of abuse.
SIGNED BYJIMOH OYIBONATIONAL PRESIDENT FOOD, BEVERAGE AND TOBACCO SENIOR STAFF ASSOCIATION (FOBTOB
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