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Global trade set to hit record $33 trillion by year-end

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Global trade is set to reach a record $33 trillion in 2024, according to the latest Global Trade Update published by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

This $1 trillion increase, reflecting 3.3% annual growth, highlights resilience in global trade despite persistent challenges.

Robust growth in services trade, up 7% for the year, accounted for half of the expansion, while goods trade rose 2% but remained below its 2022 peak. Opportunities amidst uncertainty

Developing economies, traditionally strong drivers of global trade, faced headwinds in 2024, with imports contracting 1% and South-South trade falling by the same margin in the third quarter.

In contrast, developed economies led Q3 growth, with stable demand driving a 3% rise in imports and 2% in exports.

Despite these challenges, opportunities remain for developing economies to capitalize on high-growth sectors.

ICT and apparel trade surged, with increases of 13% and 14%, respectively, in the third quarter 2024.

This growth underscores the potential for diversification and entry into value-added industries.

Stable global growth forecasts and easing inflation also present a chance to build resilience in 2025.

Sectoral pressures and growth prospects While ICT and apparel showed strong momentum, traditional sectors critical to developing economies faced declines.

Energy trade fell 2% for the quarter and 7% for the year, while metals trade contracted by 3% both quarterly and annually.

Automotive trade dropped 3% in Q3 but is expected to end the year with modest 4% growth.

A call for strategic action

UNCTAD urges developing economies to adopt targeted policies that enhance trade diversification and invest in high-value sectors to mitigate risks.

The organization underscores that trade is a cornerstone of sustainable development.

To capitalize on opportunities in 2025, developing economies require coordinated support to navigate uncertainty, reduce dependencies and strengthen global market links.

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Business

Justrite Supermarket Sets For IFC’s $15m Loan For Expansion

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Justrite, a popular supermarket chain co-founded by the dynamic duo, Ayodele Patrick Aderinwale and his wife, is on the cusp of a significant expansion.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is considering a substantial $15 million loan to help Justrite open a whopping 25 new stores across the country.

This exciting development promises a brighter future for both Justrite and the local economy.

The financing would be used to build and equip the new stores, creating jobs for Nigerians.

The expansion also aims to strengthen Justrite’s relationships with local suppliers, boosting their businesses as well.

If the deal goes through, it would be one of the largest development-finance investments in Nigeria’s retail sector in recent times, signaling confidence in the country’s growing market.

Since starting as a small neighborhood store in 2000, Justrite has grown into a familiar homegrown retail brand, serving urban and peri-urban communities that lack modern supermarkets.

The new funding could accelerate its expansion beyond the southwest, enhance logistics, cold-chain systems, and digital inventory tools, and further position Justrite as a scalable national retailer.

AfricInvest, which took a 40.4 percent stake in 2022, has already supported operational and procurement upgrades, preparing the chain for this next growth phase. The proposed IFC loan reflects renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s consumer market after recent inflation and currency pressures.

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Nigerian govt suspends implementation of 15% petrol import duty

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The Nigerian government has suspended the planned 15 per cent import duty on premium motor spirit (PMS) and automotive gas oil (diesel). The announcement was made by George Ene-Ita, spokesperson for the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), in a statement on Thursday.

The regulator urged Nigerians to avoid panic buying, assuring that there is adequate supply of petroleum products nationwide.

“It should also be noted that the implementation of the 15 percent ad valorem import duty on imported premium motor spirit and diesel is no longer in view,” NMDPRA stated.

The statement added that both domestic and imported supplies of petrol, diesel, and other petroleum products are sufficient to meet demand, especially during the peak period. The authority warned against hoarding, panic buying, or unwarranted price increases, and affirmed that it would continue to monitor supply and distribution closely.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had approved the 15 per cent import duty last month to encourage the use of products from Dangote Refinery. While some stakeholders supported the move as a boost for local refining, critics argued it could increase fuel prices and worsen economic hardship for Nigerians.

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NAFDAC’s Ban on sachets alcohol: the economy repercussions, by MAN

The Association emphasised that the ban would likely lead to the “Loss of over N1.9 trillion in investments, primarily from indigenous Nigerian companies.

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The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has said that the government’s move to ban the production and sale of alcoholic beverages packaged in sachets and small PET bottles, effective December 31, 2025, will have severe repercussions on the economy.

” This announcement by the NAFDAC, in our view, is counterproductive and threatens to disrupt the economy significantly at a time when it is beginning to stabilise,” said the Association through its Director-General, Ajayi-Kadir.

The Association emphasised that the ban would likely lead to the “Loss of over N1.9 trillion in investments, primarily from indigenous Nigerian companies.

• Mass retrenchment of over 500,000 direct employees and approximately 5 million indirect employees through contracts, marketing, and logistics.”

Ajayi-Kadir said that the earlier directive from the Ministry of Health for a one-year extension, which included the consideration and validation of the draft National Alcohol Policy by stakeholders, should have been taken into account before any significant announcement from another government body.

“We believe that a consultation with whether through a public hearing or focused meetings with relevant parties in the alcohol beverage industry, should have been conducted by the appropriate Senate Committee before an outright ban was imposed.

This approach was successfully followed by the House of Representatives in the recent past,” he stated.

Ajayi-Kadir highlighted that issues related to the ban on alcohol in sachets and small PET bottles were addressed by a broad committee that included all stakeholders, along with NAFDAC representatives, who validated the National Alcohol Policy in October 2025. The committee made the following key recommendations:

• Develop multi-sectoral action plans.- Strengthen enforcement by law enforcement agencies

• Establish licensed liquor stores/outlets in Local Government Areas nationwide.

• Increase monitoring and compliance checks by NAFDAC, FCCPC, and others to ensure product quality and safety.

• Regulatory bodies should focus more on regulation, monitoring, and educational campaigns to inform stakeholders and the public about the dangers of underage alcohol consumption and its sale in motor parks.

• Conduct educational campaigns in secondary schools across the country to raise awareness among students about the dangers and issues related to alcohol abuse.

Furthermore, we would like to note that the unfounded and untested claim of abuse by minors has been challenged by several independent studies conducted by the government.

The industry has proactively launched campaigns promoting responsible alcohol consumption to discourage underage abuse, resulting in expenditures exceeding one billion Naira on media outreach across the nation, which has effectively just underage drinking.

Ajayi-Kadir also stressed that the Senate’s directive for an outright ban is unjust and does not reflect the industry’s true conditions, as it seems the upper chamber has only considered NAFDAC’s perspective.

NAFDAC was part of the validation organised by the Ministry of Health, and it should have presented its views to the Committee and the Ministry during that process, rather than circumventing these channels and approaching the National Assembly without consulting other stakeholders.

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