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BREAKING: Nigeria’s GDP grows by 3.84% in Q4 2024, driven by services sector

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The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported that Nigeria’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.84 per cent in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024, compared to 3.46 per cent in Q3 2024 and 3.46 per cent in Q4 2023.

According to the NBS report, the GDP growth was primarily driven by the services sector, which expanded by 5.37 per cent and contributed 57.38 per cent to the overall GDP.

“The agriculture sector grew by 1.76%, from the growth of 2.10% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023,” the report stated.

In contrast, “The growth of the industry sector was 2.00%, a decline from 3.86% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023.”

The services sector’s contribution to the aggregate GDP in Q4 2024 was higher compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Overall, the annual GDP growth for 2024 was 3.40%, up from 2.74% in 2023.

The NBS also reported that the nominal GDP reached N78.37 trillion in Q4 2024, compared to N65,908,258.59 million in Q4 2023, representing a year-on-year nominal growth of 18.91%.

Oil Production Drops, Non-Oil Sector Contributes Significantly

The NBS report indicated that Nigeria’s average oil production in Q4 2024 was 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd).

This is “0.03million bpd lower” than the Q4 2023 production volume of 1.56mbpd and “0.06mbd higher than the daily average production of 1.47mbpd recorded in the third quarter of 2024”.

“The real growth of the oil sector was 1.48% (year-on-year) in Q4 2024, indicating a decrease of 10.64% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023 (12.11%),” the report explained.

The oil sector contributed 4.60 per cent to Nigeria’s total real GDP in Q4 2024, down from 4.70 per cent in the same period in 2023 and 5.57 per cent in the previous quarter.

The non-oil sector grew by 3.96 per cent in real terms in Q4 2024, higher than the 3.07 per cent in Q4 2023 and 3.37 per cent in Q3 2024.

The growth was primarily driven by financial and insurance institutions, information and communication (telecommunications), agriculture (crop production), transportation and storage (road transport), trade, and manufacturing.

“In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 95.40% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024, higher than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023 which was 95.30% and higher than the third quarter of 2024 recorded as 94.43%,” the NBS stated.

This report follows the NBS announcement on February 18th that Nigeria’s inflation rate decreased from 34.8 per cent in December 2024 to 24.48 per cent in January 2025.

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Business

Pump Price Cuts Driven by Pricing, Not Tariff — Dangote

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery has dismissed claims that the recent fall in petrol pump prices was triggered by the Federal Government’s suspension of a 15 per cent import tariff, insisting the adjustment was driven solely by its own downward review of Premium Motor Spirit prices.

In a statement on Monday, the company said downstream marketers reacted directly to its revised ex-depot prices, and that the tariff policy did not influence the decision.

“We lowered our PMS gantry price from N877 to N828 per litre, and our coastal price from N854 to N806. The downstream marketers adjusted their prices accordingly. This move was strictly market-driven and not connected to the tariff reversal,” the refinery stated.

Refinery Capacity & Strategic SignificanceSince starting production, Dangote Refinery has significantly reshaped Nigeria’s fuel market. With a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), it has become a major force in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol.

The refinery is in the process of upgrading: Dangote recently announced plans to raise capacity from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd, and is also working on a longer‑term expansion to 1.4 million bpd. This expected scale-up would make it one of the largest single-site refineries globally.

Why the Price Cut MattersHistorically, petrol pricing in Nigeria has been highly exposed to global factors, international crude prices, freight costs, foreign-exchange swings, and import duties.

By cutting its own ex-depot price, Dangote is asserting more control over the domestic price structure, reducing volatility tied to imports.

“Dangote’s price cut is a landmark event. For the first time in decades, the pricing power in Nigeria’s fuel market is shifting from international dynamics to local production.

”A refinery executive (who requested not to be named) added that the November 6 adjustment is part of a longer-term plan to stabilise supply and build market trust: “We’re not just lowering prices.

We are building confidence in Nigeria’s refining capacity. Every adjustment is carefully made to balance sustainability for us and affordability for consumers.

”Market Impact: The price review immediately reset the industry pricing floor. Within 24 hours, several major marketers reduced their pump prices, a response that analysts describe as “pure market competition.

”Oil sector analyst Grace Onuoha said:

“Dangote effectively forced a realignment. Marketers naturally had to follow to stay competitive. This isn’t about policy shifts, it’s market dynamics.

”Countering the Tariff NarrativeDangote’s statement is a direct rebuttal to widespread speculation that the 15% import tariff reversal triggered the pump price drop.

The company insists its price cut came first and was the real catalyst. The temporary tariff waiver only applies to imported PMS, while Dangote’s product is refined locally.Boosting Fuel Security.

By leveraging its own refining capacity, Dangote says it is helping to shield Nigeria from global supply disruptions and foreign-exchange risks. The refinery frames its pricing policy as part of a broader strategy toward energy self-sufficiency.

“As more Nigeria households and businesses rely on locally refined fuel, the nation becomes less vulnerable to international shocks,” the company said in its statement.

Energy analyst Dr. Tunde Aluko agrees: “This is what Nigeria has needed for decades, a domestic refinery with real capacity and market influence. Dangote is filling that crucial role.”

What This Means for Consumers

Many industry observers view the November 6 price cut as a turning point.

For the first time, a local refiner, not global import dynamics, is visibly driving fuel prices in Nigeria.

Fuel station owner Uche Eze, who operates in Abuja, said, “This is a positive development. Local refining means more predictable prices, better supply, and a buffer against forex volatility.”

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Dangote Harps on full benefits of domestic refining

The continued importation of substandard fuel constitutes dumping, a harmful practice that undermines economic growth and industrial development.

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File photo: Aliko Dangote President of the Dangote Group, flank by visitors during a tour of the refinery, recently.

The management of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery says that Nigerians will enjoy the full benefits of domestic refining.

In a comparison of imported petroleum products and the domestic ones, the refinery said that contrary to repeated claims by certain interests, imported products which are often below acceptable standards have consistently been sold at higher pump prices than the premium-grade fuel supplied by Dangote Refinery.

“The continued importation of substandard fuel constitutes dumping, a harmful practice that undermines economic growth and industrial development.

Nigeria has witnessed the devastating consequences of such unchecked dumping before, including the collapse of the once-thriving textile industry, which was a major employer of labour,” said the refinery in a statement on Monday, November 17, 2025.

The refinery reiterated its commitment to supplying high-quality and internationally benchmarked petroleum products at competitive prices, adding: “Our operations continue to moderate prices in the market, ensuring Nigerian consumers receive genuine value for money.”

In a response to the recent suspension of the 15% import duty on imported petroleum products by the government, the refinery, said :

” Despite the non-implementation of the tariff, we reduced the price of our products.

As a socially responsible company, this decision, which was not affected by whether the tariff was implemented or not, aligns with our long-standing commitment to ensuring Nigerians enjoy the full benefits of domestic refining.”

It emphasised that Dangote refinery reduced its petrol gantry price from N877 to N828 per litre, representing a 5.6 per cent decrease, and its coastal price from N854 to N806 per litre on November 6.

The refinery said these changes were publicly announced and implemented before marketers adjusted their pump prices.

It stated: “The claim that the reduction in pump prices was driven by the suspension of the 15 per cent import tariff is therefore incorrect. The import tariff had received the approval of President Bola Tinubu as far back as October 21 for immediate implementation.

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Justrite Supermarket Sets For IFC’s $15m Loan For Expansion

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Justrite, a popular supermarket chain co-founded by the dynamic duo, Ayodele Patrick Aderinwale and his wife, is on the cusp of a significant expansion.

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is considering a substantial $15 million loan to help Justrite open a whopping 25 new stores across the country.

This exciting development promises a brighter future for both Justrite and the local economy.

The financing would be used to build and equip the new stores, creating jobs for Nigerians.

The expansion also aims to strengthen Justrite’s relationships with local suppliers, boosting their businesses as well.

If the deal goes through, it would be one of the largest development-finance investments in Nigeria’s retail sector in recent times, signaling confidence in the country’s growing market.

Since starting as a small neighborhood store in 2000, Justrite has grown into a familiar homegrown retail brand, serving urban and peri-urban communities that lack modern supermarkets.

The new funding could accelerate its expansion beyond the southwest, enhance logistics, cold-chain systems, and digital inventory tools, and further position Justrite as a scalable national retailer.

AfricInvest, which took a 40.4 percent stake in 2022, has already supported operational and procurement upgrades, preparing the chain for this next growth phase. The proposed IFC loan reflects renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s consumer market after recent inflation and currency pressures.

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