The Bashir Adeniyi Centre for International Trade and Investment (BACITI) says that Nigerian fertilizers manufacturers and industrial goods had better consider exporting regionally under the AfCFTA .

BACITI also urges the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) and Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN) to help exporters cope with the tariff’s cost through rebates, tax breaks, or low-interest loans to affected exporters.

BACITI , in its Economic Insight April 2025, noted that the U.S. tariff will hit Nigeria’s non-oil export sector hardest.

Said the report: ” Many African countries rely on preferential access to the U.S.market under AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act), which granted duty-free treatment to thousands of African exports.African manufacturers who invested with AGOA preferences in mind are now at risk.

Textiles, leather, and agro-processing exports from countries like Kenya,Ethiopia, Ghana, Lesotho, and Nigeria may now face 10–14%tariffs, rendering the uncompetitive.

This could lead to job losses in export zones and industrial park.

Nigerian agricultural and manufacturing SMEs that have carved out a market in the U.S.now face a price disadvantage.

Niche products like Nigerian cocoa butter, dried fruits, or textiles and apparels which entered the U.S. duty-free will become costlier and uncompetitive.

Fertilizer makes up 2–3% of Nigeria’s exports to the U.S. A 10-14% tariff on fertilizer could lead U.S. buyers to seek cheaper suppliers, thus Nigerian producers might lose that market or have to accept lower net prices.

While crude oil is less likely to be directly impacted by the new tariffs, the broader uncertainty stemming from the ongoing trade war is likely to exert downward pressure on global oil prices, thereby affecting Nigeria’s export revenues and fiscal stability.

Indirect macro impact via oil prices: fallin oil prices due to slow global trade and economic uncertainty.

This would further reduce Nigeria’s export earnings and government revenue. A $10 drop in oil price, for example, costs Nigeria billions in export earnings.

Fiscal and FX pressures: A decline inNigeria’s export earnings would reduce dollar inflows, placing pressure on the naira.

In times of global uncertainty or trade wars, investors often retreat from riskier markets. As a result, Nigeria could face capital outflows, further currency depreciation, and rising inflationary pressure.”