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Global Oil Market Report – May 2025 by IEA

Based on the latest plans, OPEC+ will add 310 kb/d of extra supply this year and 150 kb/d in 2026.Refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are broadly unchanged from last month’s Report at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively.

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Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990 kb/d in 1Q25 to 650 kb/d for the remainder of the year as economic headwinds and record EV sales curb use.

International energy agency, made the disclosure in its Oil Market Report – May 2025

The report reads: ” Demand growth averages 740 kb/d in 2025 and 760 kb/d in 2026, despite accelerating OECD declines of -120 kb/d and -240 kb/d, respectively.

World oil supply looks on track to rise by 1.6 mb/d to 104.6 mb/d on average in 2025, and by an additional 970 kb/d in 2026.

Non-OPEC+ producers are set to add 1.3 mb/d this year and 820 kb/d next year, even as US LTO supply has been reduced.

Based on the latest plans, OPEC+ will add 310 kb/d of extra supply this year and 150 kb/d in 2026.Refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are broadly unchanged from last month’s Report at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively.

Annual gains of around 400 kb/d in both years are driven exclusively by non-OECD regions. Refining margins reached 12-month highs across most regions and configurations in late April, as a discernible shift in crude pricing boosted profitability.Global oil stocks rose by 25.1 mb in March, led by a 57.8 mb increase in crude, but at 7 671 mb remained well below the five-year average (-221 mb).

Total OECD inventories increased by 3.1 mb, while non-OECD stocks rose by 21.3 mb and oil on water was up slightly by 0.7 mb. Preliminary data show global oil inventories built further in April.

Benchmark crude oil prices fell by around $10/bbl over April and into May amid escalating US tariffs and larger-than-expected OPEC+ output hikes.

Bearish sentiment eased somewhat after the US reached a trade deal with the UK on 8 May, and a 90-day accord with China on 12 May. Russian crude prices averaged $55.64/bbl in April with all major export grades below the $60/bbl price cap.

At the time of writing, North Sea Dated was trading at around $66/bbl.

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International

JUST IN: Trump Sacks US Ambassador To Nigeria, Others

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The Trump administration has recalled the United States Ambassador to Nigeria, Richard M. Mills Jr., as part of a broader shake-up involving nearly 30 career diplomats serving in ambassadorial and senior embassy posts around the world.

Mills, who assumed his post in Nigeria in July 2024 during the Biden administration, is among the affected envoys who received notices last week that their tenures will end in January 2026. The move aligns with efforts to ensure U.S. diplomatic representatives fully support President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy priorities.

Africa has been the most impacted region, with ambassadors recalled from 13 countries: Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Gabon, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar, Mauritius, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Somalia, and Uganda. Other affected regions include Asia (six countries, including the Philippines and Vietnam), Europe (four countries), the Middle East (two countries), and additional posts in South Asia and the Western Hemisphere.

Many of these diplomats were appointed under the previous Biden administration and had initially survived an earlier wave of changes that primarily targeted political appointees. Ambassadors serve at the pleasure of the president and typically hold posts for three to four years, though the administration described the recalls as a “standard process” for any new presidency.

A State Department spokesperson defended the decision, stating: “An ambassador is a personal representative of the president, and it is the president’s right to ensure that he has individuals in these countries who advance the America First agenda.”

The recalls, first reported by Politico, have raised concerns among some lawmakers and the American Foreign Service Association, the union representing U.S. diplomats. The affected career diplomats will return to Washington for potential reassignment but will no longer serve as chiefs of mission in their current postings.

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UPDATE: Burkina Faso Releases 11 Detained Nigerian Air Force Personnel and Aircraft Following High-Level Talks

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Burkina Faso has released 11 Nigerian Air Force personnel and their C-130 aircraft, ending a nearly two-week diplomatic standoff triggered by the plane’s emergency landing in the country.

The release was confirmed shortly after Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, concluded a meeting with Burkina Faso’s President, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, on Wednesday in Ouagadougou.

Tuggar, acting as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s special envoy, delivered a message of solidarity and fraternity while addressing the incident involving the aircraft, which made a precautionary landing in Bobo-Dioulasso on December 8 due to technical issues en route to Portugal.

A statement from Alkasim Abdulkadir, spokesperson for Tuggar, described the resolution as amicable, noting that both nations resolved concerns over the Nigerian Air Force pilots and crew through constructive dialogue.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs later confirmed the release of both the personnel and the aircraft, emphasizing sustained diplomatic engagement at the highest levels.

The incident had initially raised tensions, with Burkina Faso citing procedural irregularities in airspace authorization. Nigeria expressed regret over the matter while reaffirming respect for Burkina Faso’s sovereignty.

Officials on both sides highlighted the spirit of fraternity, with Tuggar praising the treatment accorded to the crew during their stay. Discussions also touched on broader cooperation in security and counter-terrorism.

The swift resolution underscores ongoing efforts to maintain neighborly relations amid regional challenges, with the personnel expected to return home imminently.

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Nigeria’s Foreign Minister Tuggar Delivers President Tinubu’s Message of Solidarity to Burkina Faso’s Traoré Amid Diplomatic Resolution

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In a high-level diplomatic engagement, Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, met with Burkina Faso’s President, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, on Wednesday to deliver a personal message of solidarity and fraternity from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The meeting, held in the Burkinabè capital, focused on strengthening bilateral ties and addressing shared regional challenges, particularly in security and counter-terrorism efforts.

Sources confirm that the visit paved the way for the swift release of 11 Nigerian Air Force personnel and their aircraft, which had been detained following an emergency landing earlier this month.

Tuggar emphasized the longstanding historical bonds between the two nations, stating after the audience: “We exchanged views on cooperation in several sectors, including the fight against terrorism. Nigeria remains committed to sustained dialogue and enhanced regional solidarity to tackle common threats.

“A key point of discussion was the recent incident involving a Nigerian C-130 aircraft that made a precautionary landing in Bobo-Dioulasso due to technical issues.

Tuggar acknowledged procedural irregularities in the airspace authorization process, expressing Nigeria’s regret and reaffirming respect for Burkina Faso’s sovereignty and international aviation norms.

The minister also distanced the Nigerian government from controversial remarks by a domestic political figure alleging mistreatment of the detained personnel, declaring: “We clearly dissociate ourselves from those comments and express our sincere regrets to the government of Burkina Faso.

“Tuggar praised President Traoré’s administration for the “spirit of fraternity” shown toward the Nigerian crew during their stay, noting Burkina Faso’s recent successes in counter-terrorism operations.

The resolution underscores Nigeria’s preference for diplomacy in resolving regional misunderstandings, with officials highlighting ongoing collaboration despite broader sub-regional tensions.

The released personnel are expected to return home shortly, marking a positive step in Nigeria-Burkina Faso relations.

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