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Global Oil Market Report – May 2025 by IEA

Based on the latest plans, OPEC+ will add 310 kb/d of extra supply this year and 150 kb/d in 2026.Refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are broadly unchanged from last month’s Report at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively.

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Global oil demand growth is projected to slow from 990 kb/d in 1Q25 to 650 kb/d for the remainder of the year as economic headwinds and record EV sales curb use.

International energy agency, made the disclosure in its Oil Market Report – May 2025

The report reads: ” Demand growth averages 740 kb/d in 2025 and 760 kb/d in 2026, despite accelerating OECD declines of -120 kb/d and -240 kb/d, respectively.

World oil supply looks on track to rise by 1.6 mb/d to 104.6 mb/d on average in 2025, and by an additional 970 kb/d in 2026.

Non-OPEC+ producers are set to add 1.3 mb/d this year and 820 kb/d next year, even as US LTO supply has been reduced.

Based on the latest plans, OPEC+ will add 310 kb/d of extra supply this year and 150 kb/d in 2026.Refinery throughput forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are broadly unchanged from last month’s Report at 83.2 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively.

Annual gains of around 400 kb/d in both years are driven exclusively by non-OECD regions. Refining margins reached 12-month highs across most regions and configurations in late April, as a discernible shift in crude pricing boosted profitability.Global oil stocks rose by 25.1 mb in March, led by a 57.8 mb increase in crude, but at 7 671 mb remained well below the five-year average (-221 mb).

Total OECD inventories increased by 3.1 mb, while non-OECD stocks rose by 21.3 mb and oil on water was up slightly by 0.7 mb. Preliminary data show global oil inventories built further in April.

Benchmark crude oil prices fell by around $10/bbl over April and into May amid escalating US tariffs and larger-than-expected OPEC+ output hikes.

Bearish sentiment eased somewhat after the US reached a trade deal with the UK on 8 May, and a 90-day accord with China on 12 May. Russian crude prices averaged $55.64/bbl in April with all major export grades below the $60/bbl price cap.

At the time of writing, North Sea Dated was trading at around $66/bbl.

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International

Zimbabwe Wins UN Security Council Seat for 2027-2028

The five countries were elected by the 193-member General Assembly to serve as non-permanent members of the Security Council for two-year terms beginning on January 1, 2027.

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Zimbabwe has been elected to a non-permanent, two-year term on the United Nations Security Council, the third time the country will be represented on the body mandated to maintain international peace and security.

Voice of Nigeria reports that the other countries that secured seats around the iconic horseshoe table are Austria, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, and Kyrgyzstan.

The five countries were elected by the 193-member General Assembly to serve as non-permanent members of the Security Council for two-year terms beginning on January 1, 2027.

Austria and Portugal won the two seats allocated to the Western European and other States (WEOG) Group, while Trinidad and Tobago and Zimbabwe were elected from the Latin American and Caribbean Group and the African Group, respectively.

Kyrgyzstan secured the Asia-Pacific seat after defeating the Philippines in four rounds of voting.

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International

Finland’s president says EU should expand to 40 states — including Canada

His comments come as the Trump administration’s actions, alongside Russia’s war with Ukraine, prompt some countries to reconsider the benefits of EU membership.

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Finland’s president Alexander Stubb

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has stressed the need for a much larger European Union, saying the 27-nation bloc should increase its membership to 40 states and named the U.K., Canada, Turkey, Norway and Iceland as potential candidates to join.

Stubb made the call at an energy conference in the Finnish capital on Wednesday.

His comments come as the Trump administration’s actions, alongside Russia’s war with Ukraine, prompt some countries to reconsider the benefits of EU membership.

Stubb told the Eurelectric Power Summit that “the window of opportunity” for EU enlargement “is quite short because when the war in Ukraine ends and perhaps when the U.S. administration changes, I don’t know, then people are going to take their foot off the gas pedal and start heckling about unnecessary stuff again.”

Stubb added that “European strategic autonomy or European geopolitical power” is “often based on size and scale and I think the best European policy ever has been European enlargement.”

“In this moment, we need to think big and geographically, we need to enlarge or at least create memberships which are flexible enough to bring in a sum total of 40 European states — or even non-European,” Stubb said.

Finland’s president said the EU should look to its western flank and bring the U.K., which left the bloc in 2020, back into the fold, or at least “as close as possible

.”Canada should be considered as another option, Stubb said. “Wouldn’t it be lovely if Canada was the 28th state of the European Union rather than the 51st state of the United States?”

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International

Iran Kuwait’s airport attack injures 63

Health ministry spokesman Abdullah al-Sanad said 25 ambulances were dispatched at Kuwait International Airport, adding that “63 injured individuals were received and distributed among hospitals.

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Today Wednesday June 3: Kuwait International Airport was hit by Iranian drones.

An Iranian attack on Kuwait’s airport wounded at least 63 people on Wednesday, the health ministry said, with authorities earlier reporting one person killed.

Health ministry spokesman Abdullah al-Sanad said 25 ambulances were dispatched at Kuwait International Airport, adding that “63 injured individuals were received and distributed among hospitals.

This includes serious injuries… including head wounds, cerebral hemorrhages, amputations and injuries resulting from explosions.”

An airport source told AFP that the death in Kuwait was an Indian national at the airport.

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