*By Emeka Monye*

As the race for the 2027 presidential election gathers momentum, Nigeria’s political landscape is already shifting like a chessboard before the first move.

Major political bigwigs are jostling for party tickets, testing alliances, and calculating the odds of securing the ultimate prize: Aso Rock. Permutations have begun in earnest, with analysts and party insiders reading between the lines of every handshake and every press statement.

At the center of these calculations are some of the most recognizable names in Nigerian politics: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra Governor Peter Obi, former Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi, and former Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso.

Each of these men carries political weight, regional influence, and a base that believes he represents the best chance to dislodge the incumbent, President Bola Tinubu. Tinubu himself is widely regarded by political observers as a master strategist, a man who understands the mechanics of power better than most.

Beating him will not be easy. It will require not just popularity, but structure, resources, and most importantly, unity among opposition forces. Whether that unity will materialize remains the great unknown of 2027.

The most delicate variable in this equation is the willingness of these aspirants to step down for one another under the banner of a single party. Right now, much of the speculation centers on the African Democratic Congress, ADC, which has quietly become a possible platform for an opposition coalition.

But the question hanging over the ADC is simple: who will blink first? And more importantly, who will be willing to sacrifice personal ambition for the greater good of a unified front?

Atiku Abubakar remains a central figure in this debate. The former Vice President has pursued the presidency since 1992, and his ambition has not dimmed with age.

For Atiku, 2027 may represent one last shot at realizing a lifelong dream. But his candidacy faces a structural hurdle: the argument that it is still the turn of the South to produce the president. After eight years of Muhammadu Buhari from the North, many within the political class believe power should remain in the South for another term.

That arrangement does not favor Atiku, and whether he will adhere to it in principle is a matter of political conscience. Based on history, many doubt he will. Atiku’s camp has always played hardball, and stepping down for a southern candidate would require a level of self-restraint he has not shown before.

This is where Peter Obi enters the frame. Obi’s performance in the 2023 election proved that he commands a movement that transcends traditional party lines. His supporters, often called the “Obidients,” see him as the face of a new Nigeria, one less tethered to the old guard. But Obi’s path to the ADC ticket is far from clear.

The party’s structure, insiders say, is already leaning toward Atiku. For Atiku, Obi’s movement represents a useful support base to stay afloat, but not necessarily a platform he is willing to surrender. If Atiku remains a stumbling block, Obi may be forced to look elsewhere.

That “elsewhere” could be the National Democratic Congress, NDC. Unlike the ADC, the NDC is currently free of the kind of internal infighting that has plagued other parties. It has no entrenched godfather dictating its direction, no legacy structure dominated by a single aspirant.

For now, it is clean. But that could change the moment Obi walks in. His arrival would bring with it the same energy and attention he brought to the Labour Party in 2022, when he left the PDP and captured national imagination. That move shocked the political establishment. A move to the NDC in 2027 could do the same.

There are strong pointers that Obi will not secure the ADC ticket. The party’s machinery is gradually being aligned with Atiku’s network, and it is unlikely that Atiku will hand over the reins without a fight.

If Obi stays and loses the primary, he risks being sidelined. If he leaves, the NDC offers a ready-made alternative, a platform where he can once again define the narrative on his own terms. It would be a repeat of 2022, but with higher stakes and greater visibility.Kwankwaso’s role in this unfolding drama cannot be ignored.

The former Kano Governor commands significant influence in the North, and his political base remains loyal. Like Obi, he is also weighing his options. A joint ticket or alliance between Obi and Kwankwaso under the NDC would be a game-changer. It would combine Obi’s southern and youth appeal with Kwankwaso’s northern structure, creating a formidable challenge to both Tinubu and any coalition the ADC manages to build.

The NDC, in that scenario, would transform from an obscure party into a national force overnight.Of course, this is all speculation for now. Politics in Nigeria is fluid, and alliances can shift in weeks, sometimes days.

But the underlying reality is clear: the opposition’s best chance in 2027 lies in unity. Divided, they will hand Tinubu an easy victory. United, they could force a real contest.

The ADC was supposed to be that unifying platform, but with Atiku’s shadow looming large, it may end up replicating the same internal conflicts that weakened the opposition in previous cycles.Obi’s supporters argue that he has already shown he is willing to sacrifice for the greater good by engaging across party lines.

But they also insist that sacrifice must go both ways. If Atiku refuses to step aside, they say, Obi owes no one the duty to play second fiddle. The NDC then becomes not just an option, but a necessity. For Kwankwaso, the calculation is similar.

He has always positioned himself as an alternative to the status quo, and joining forces with Obi under a new banner could finally give him the national reach he has long sought.

The NDC’s advantage is its neutrality. It is not burdened by the baggage of the PDP or the APC. It has no history of failed primaries or bitter court cases. It offers a fresh start, and in Nigerian politics, fresh starts can be powerful.

Voters are tired of recycling the same faces under different party logos. A new platform with new energy could capture that fatigue and turn it into votes.

But fresh starts come with risks. Building a party structure from scratch is expensive and time-consuming. It requires funding, grassroots mobilization, and a clear message.

Obi proved he could do it in 2023 with limited resources. Kwankwaso has the network to complement that effort. Together, they could make the NDC a serious contender.

Alone, each risks splitting the opposition vote and handing victory to Tinubu on a silver platter.This is why the next few months will be crucial. Party primaries, backroom negotiations, and public statements will all serve as indicators of where these aspirants are headed.

Atiku will test his influence within the ADC. Obi will test the patience of his movement. Kwankwaso will test the waters for a broader coalition. And Tinubu, from his vantage point, will watch it all unfold, ready to exploit any cracks.

For now, the signal is clear: I see Obi and Kwankwaso moving toward the NDC. It is not yet a done deal, but the logic is compelling. The ADC may offer a coalition on paper, but in reality, it looks like another battleground for old rivalries.

The NDC offers something different: a clean slate, a chance to rewrite the rules, and an opportunity to build something new.

Whether Obi and Kwankwaso will seize that opportunity remains to be seen. But if they do, 2027 will not just be another election.

It will be a referendum on whether Nigeria’s political future belongs to the old guard or to a new generation willing to break away and chart its own course.

In the build-up to political independence from Britain, Nigeria stood as a frontline voice in African affairs.

That role positioned the nation as a leading force on the continent — so central to African liberation and diplomacy that Nigeria was widely perceived as a potential superpower in African geopolitics.And true to those expectations, Nigeria did not falter.

The country embraced its political and economic leadership role with conviction, both before and after independence in 1960.

From the corridors of the United Nations to the liberation movements of Southern Africa, Nigeria’s imprint was unmistakable.

The nation’s support for fellow African states was comprehensive.

It was economic, political, social, cultural, and educational. During the dark years of colonial rule and apartheid, Nigeria opened its treasury and its classrooms.

It offered scholarships to citizens of Ghana, Togo, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia, and others.

The Nigerian government funded the Southern African Relief Fund in 1976, contributing over $5 million — a significant sum at the time — to support liberation movements. Nigerian civil servants took a pay cut to fund the anti-apartheid struggle.

Our musicians, from Sonny Okosun to Majek Fashek, became the soundtrack of African resistance. Our passports were issued to ANC leaders denied travel documents.

We were, in every sense, “Africa’s Big Brother.”Yet, tragically, these acts of solidarity have been consigned to the dustbin of history.

Many of the countries that once leaned on Nigeria’s shoulders now appear unmoved by that legacy of goodwill.

The sacrifices we made during their years of struggle and suffering are met today with silence, or worse, hostility.South Africa offers the most painful example.

A nation that was once an apartheid enclave emerged from decades of racial oppression with Nigeria as one of its staunchest allies.

Lagos was declared an ANC operational hub. Nigerian students protested on the streets for Mandela’s release.

We boycotted the 1976 Olympics and the 1978 Commonwealth Games to isolate the apartheid regime. Nigeria lost trade, investment, and diplomatic opportunities for the sake of South Africa’s freedom.

But post-apartheid South Africa has turned a blind eye to that history. Today, Nigerians in South Africa live under the shadow of xenophobia.

They are hunted in their shops, assaulted in taxi ranks, and targeted in their homes. The attacks are not random.

They are systematic, recurring, and often justified under the obnoxious narrative that foreigners — especially Nigerians — are “taking jobs,” “running drugs,” and “fueling crime.”

That a fellow African nation would institutionalize the rejection of other Africans is not just pathetic. It is a betrayal of the Pan-African ideal.This is not new.

History is replete with patterns of anti-Nigerian and anti-foreigner violence in South Africa.

We saw it in May 2008, when over 60 people were killed. We saw it again in April 2015, when shops were looted in Durban and Johannesburg.

In September 2019, another wave left at least 12 dead, with Nigerian businesses torched on live television. And now, in 2026, the cycle continues.

Each time, the Nigerian government issues statements. Each time, we summon the South African High Commissioner. Each time, we are promised investigations. And each time, the violence returns.

For too long, the Nigerian government has turned a blind eye and a deaf ear to the plight of its citizens abroad.

Our foreign policy, once rooted in Afrocentrism, has become reactive rather than proactive. We respond to crises instead of preventing them.

We preach “Africa as the centerpiece” of our diplomacy, but we have failed to define what that means in 2026. Does it mean silent diplomacy while our people are killed? Does it mean economic ties at the expense of human dignity?The cost of inaction is no longer diplomatic — it is existential.

Every Nigerian killed in Pretoria or Durban chips away at our national pride. Every looted shop weakens the confidence of our diaspora, whose remittances exceed $20 billion annually and sustain millions of families at home.

Every video of a Nigerian pleading for his life diminishes Nigeria’s standing as a regional power.

A nation that cannot protect its citizens abroad cannot command respect at home.

So what must Nigeria do?

” We need a rapid response unit within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission, NiDCOM, capable of legal intervention, evacuation, and litigation within 48 hours of any attack. “

First, we must abandon the era of tepid press releases. Diplomacy without consequences is appeasement.

The government must invoke Article 3 of the 2013 Nigeria-South Africa Bi-National Commission Agreement, which commits both nations to protect each other’s citizens.

Where violations occur, there must be reciprocal measures — from visa reviews to trade sanctions.

South Africa benefits from Nigerian markets, from MTN to Shoprite. That leverage must be used.

Second, Nigeria needs a Diaspora Protection Framework with teeth.

We need a rapid response unit within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission, NiDCOM, capable of legal intervention, evacuation, and litigation within 48 hours of any attack.

Our missions must move from being ceremonial offices to active defenders of Nigerian lives and property.

Third, we must re-educate Africa about Nigeria’s role. The younger generation in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and beyond has no memory of Nigeria’s sacrifices.

Our foreign policy should include cultural diplomacy — documentaries, curriculum exchanges, and memorials that institutionalize our Pan-African contributions.

If we do not tell our story, others will erase it.

Fourth, we must look inward.

The reason many Nigerians migrate is because home has failed them. Unemployment, insecurity, and poor governance push our best brains into hostile environments.

The ultimate protection for Nigerians abroad is a Nigeria that works. If we fix power, secure our streets, and create jobs, economic migration will become a choice, not a desperate escape.This is not a call for war. It is a call for self-respect.

Nigeria gave Africa its voice. We funded liberation when it was not profitable. We welcomed refugees when it was not convenient. We must now demand that the same humanity be extended to us.

The xenophobic attacks are not just South Africa’s shame. They are Nigeria’s test.

Our founding fathers envisioned a Nigeria that would be the giant of Africa not in size alone, but in moral authority.

That authority is bleeding out on the streets of Johannesburg.

History will not judge us by the speeches we made, but by the citizens we protected.

The time for quiet diplomacy is over.

The time for lamentations has passed.Nigeria must act now — before the next video, before the next body bag, before it is too late.

• Emeka Monye Is a journalist.

•Dr. Chiogo Constance Ikokwu (Ugonecheora).

In a piece, titled ‘ End the Paywall on Leadership: Let Competence, Not Cash, Decide Our Candidates,’ Dr. Chiogo Constance Ikokwu (Ugonecheora), an aspirant for Idemili North and South Federal Constituency for House of Representatives on African Democratic Congress (ADC) platform, called on political parties across Nigeria, to either scrap or reduce the high cost of nomination forms.

This she said, will open the door to real leadership, and help to expand access to women and people with disabilities (PWDs).

Emphasising that Nigeria’s political system cannot thrive behind a price tag, Dr Ikokwu observed that the high cost of party nomination forms has turned political participation into an exclusive club for the wealthy, shutting out capable women, young people, and PWDs before they even begin.

She argues that if leadership is truly about service, then access to contest must not be determined by bank balance, but by vision, integrity, and the courage to lead.

She said:

” Political parties, especially the African Democratic Congress (ADC) on whose platform I’m running, must take deliberate steps to eliminate or drastically reduce the cost of nomination forms. I also expect that women and PWDs are allowed to pay discounted fees, if indeed they must pay.

If we are serious about deepening democracy, then access to contest should not be reserved for the wealthy or those backed by powerful financiers,” she stated.

She continued; “Money politics has done deep damage to the quality of our representation, and the reasons are clear. It sidelines visionary candidates who have ideas, integrity, and a genuine desire to serve, but lack the financial muscle to compete.

By removing these financial, and other barriers, parties will not only expand participation but also elevate the standard of leadership.

If we are serious about deepening democracy, then access to contest should not be reserved for the wealthy or those backed by powerful financiers.

Nigeria deserves leaders chosen for their competence and character, not the size of their wallets.”

Dr. Ikokwu argued that Nigeria cannot keep saying it wants inclusive leadership while maintaining barriers that shut out capable citizens.

As a journalist turned politician, she said that she has seen firsthand how the exorbitant cost of party nomination forms discourages not just women, but also young people from even stepping forward.

These fees are not a measure of competence or commitment, they are simply a financial gatekeeping tool that narrows our democratic space, she declared. “