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65 Years of Nigeria’s Economic Journey, by Muda Yusuf

Nigeria’s economic history at 65 is one of resilience, missed opportunities, and enormous untapped potential.

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Nigeria’s economic journey over the past 65 years has been one of profound transformation — shaped by cycles of boom and bust, far-reaching reforms, recurring crises, and enduring struggles with diversification.

As the nation marks 65 years of independence, reflecting on this trajectory is essential to chart a more sustainable, competitive, and inclusive path for the future.

Foundations and Lessons from the Early Years

At independence, Nigeria’s economy was largely agrarian, productive, and inclusive.

Agriculture contributed an estimated 60 percent of gross Domestic Product [GDP] and employed the majority of the country’s workforce.

The export economy was anchored on cash crops — cocoa, groundnuts, palm oil, and rubber — and citizens were actively engaged in the entire value chain.

Governance was decentralized, with regions controlling resources and revenues, which promoted balanced development, accountability, and healthy competition.

This early experience offers an enduring lesson: decentralization and local ownership of resources drive innovation and inclusive growth.

Restoring a more fiscally federal structure could once again foster subnational competitiveness, stimulate innovation, and encourage states and regions to take greater ownership of economic outcomes.

The Oil Boom and Structural Distortions

The discovery and commercialization of crude oil in the late 1960s radically altered Nigeria’s economic and political trajectory.

By the 1970s, oil had become the dominant source of public revenue and foreign exchange.

The oil boom delivered significant wealth but also created structural vulnerabilities.

Agriculture was neglected, leading to food import dependence.

Corruption and rent-seeking behavior escalated, while import-substitution industrialization became overly dependent on imported inputs, leaving domestic value chains underdeveloped.

This dependence made the economy acutely vulnerable to oil price shocks — a weakness that continues to destabilize public finances to this day.

The key lesson is clear: resource wealth must be managed prudently and counter cyclically through well-governed stabilization funds and sovereign wealth investments, while industrialization must be firmly rooted in domestic value chains rather than external dependence.

Nigeria has experienced eight recessions since independence — in 1967, 1975, 1978, 1981–1983, 1993, 2016, and 2020 — largely triggered by oil price shocks, fiscal mismanagement, or global crises.

Adjustment, Liberalization, and Social Costs

The oil price collapse of the early 1980s triggered fiscal and balance-of-payments crises that forced Nigeria to adopt the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in 1986.

This shift introduced currency devaluation, trade liberalization, financial sector reform, and privatization of state-owned enterprises.

While SAP nudged Nigeria toward a market economy, it also came with significant social costs — rising poverty, inflation, and industrial underutilization. Import dependence worsened in the absence of robust domestic production.

The lesson here is that reforms must be carefully sequenced and complemented with strong institutional frameworks and social protection mechanisms to avoid deepening poverty and inequality.

Recurring Recessions and Structural Weakness

Nigeria has experienced eight recessions since independence — in 1967, 1975, 1978, 1981–1983, 1993, 2016, and 2020 — largely triggered by oil price shocks, fiscal mismanagement, or global crises.

Each downturn revealed the same structural fragilities: heavy reliance on oil revenues, weak non-oil exports, and excessive import dependence.

Building resilience will require export diversification, fiscal discipline, and the creation of credible stabilization mechanisms to ensure stability of government spending during periods of revenue volatility.

Oil and Gas Governance: From Crisis to Opportunity

For decades, Nigeria’s oil and gas sector was plagued by poor governance, corruption, and rent-seeking, leading to the collapse of state-owned refineries, heavy dependence on imported petroleum products, and widespread crude oil theft.

This mismanagement undermined fiscal stability and reduced the sector’s developmental impact.

Cheerfully, recent developments — notably the Dangote Refinery and petrochemical complex and ongoing industry reforms — signal a potential turnaround.

These efforts, if sustained, could restore value to the sector, enhance energy security, and catalyze new downstream and petrochemical investments.

Security and Productivity

The last two decades have seen a deterioration in national security — insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, ethnic and religious conflicts, farmers herders clashes and armed robbery — which disrupted agriculture, manufacturing, and mining, and eroded investor confidence.

Restoring security is therefore not just a social imperative but an economic one, necessary to rebuild productivity and unlock investment in the real economy.

Emerging Bright Spots

Despite persistent challenges, Nigeria has achieved notable successes.

The ICT and telecommunications sector has grown from fewer than 20,000 telephone lines in 1960 to over 165 million active lines today, transforming commerce, banking, and governance.

Financial services have deepened, fintech has flourished, and capital markets have expanded.

Nollywood and Afrobeats have turned Nigeria into a global cultural powerhouse.

Broadcasting has grown from one TV station and a few government-owned radio stations at independence to more than 740 broadcast stations today, while e-commerce is reshaping consumer markets.

These sectors demonstrate Nigeria’s potential for non-oil-led growth. Unlocking further progress will require strengthening infrastructure, power supply, broadband penetration, and regulatory consistency to attract and sustain private sector investment.

Macroeconomic and Fiscal Challenges

Persistent macroeconomic instability continues to weigh on growth.

The naira’s dramatic depreciation — from being stronger than the U.S. dollar in the 1970s to ₦1,600/$ in 2024 — has eroded purchasing power, raised production costs, and discouraged investment.

Rising public debt and unsustainable debt-service-to-revenue ratios have constrained the fiscal space, limiting governments’ capacity to fund critical infrastructures.

Policy priorities must focus on restoring currency stability through credible monetary policy, expanding foreign exchange supply by growing non-oil exports, improving public spending efficiency, plugging fiscal leakages, and raising non-oil revenue without stifling private enterprise.

The good news is that the economy is beginning to experience remarkable degree of stability over the last one year.

Demographics, Infrastructure, and Future Growth

Nigeria’s population of an estimated 230 million is both a significant opportunity and a daunting challenge. Infrastructure — roads, power, housing, education, and healthcare — remains grossly inadequate, undermining productivity and competitiveness.

Aggressive infrastructure investment, leveraging public-private partnerships and innovative financing models, is no longer optional but an urgent necessity.

Reform Agenda and the Way Forward

In the last two years, the government has implemented bold reforms, including exchange rate unification, fuel subsidy removal, and tax policy adjustments.

These measures have imposed short-term pain — high inflation and reduced household purchasing power — but early signs of macroeconomic stabilization are emerging.

To sustain reform momentum, these measures must be complemented by targeted social protection programs — cash transfers, food security interventions, and job-creation initiatives — to shield vulnerable households and maintain public support.Strategic Priorities for the Next Decade

Looking ahead, Nigeria must focus on:Deepening economic diversification: Scaling up value addition in agriculture, manufacturing, and solid minerals.

Strengthening governance and institutions: Enhancing transparency, reducing the cost of governance, and improving fiscal responsibility and management.

Investing in human capital: Prioritizing education, health, and vocational training to harness the demographic dividend.

Accelerating infrastructure development: Power, transport, and broadband must be prioritised through PPPs and innovative finance.

Ensuring inclusive growth:

Embedding poverty reduction, job creation, and social protection in fiscal and monetary policy.

Conclusion

Nigeria’s economic history at 65 is one of resilience, missed opportunities, and enormous untapped potential.

The current reform agenda presents a rare opportunity to reset the economy on a path of stability, competitiveness, and shared prosperity.

Seizing this moment will require consistent policies, institutional strengthening, and a deliberate effort to ensure that economic growth translates into improved living standards for citizens.

Dr Muda Yusuf is the Director/ CEO, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE.

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Opinions

Nigeria’s Democracy Under Siege: Opposition Faces Existential Threats

Thankfully, patriotic leaders saw this danger early and chose resistance over silence by rallying around the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the nucleus of a credible national alternative.

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By Paul Ibe *

For nearly three years, Nigerians have endured one of the harshest periods in recent history—an era defined by punishing economic policies and shrinking democratic space under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

True to form, this administration has not only inflicted widespread hardship but has pursued a calculated effort to eliminate political alternatives.

The objective is clear: a creeping, de facto one-party state.

Perhaps the Tinubu administration’s most disturbing “achievement” has been the systematic weakening of opposition parties, leaving the All Progressives Congress—despite its manifest failures—standing alone by default, not by merit.

Thankfully, patriotic leaders saw this danger early and chose resistance over silence by rallying around the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the nucleus of a credible national alternative.

Predictably, agents aligned with the Presidency are now attempting to destabilize the ADC from the outside—issuing reckless prescriptions about its internal affairs, particularly the choice of a presidential candidate.

Let it be stated plainly: the ADC is on a national rescue mission. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, alongside other committed patriots, is central to this effort.

Any call—overt or covert—for Atiku to “step aside” is a gift to authoritarian ambition and a betrayal of the Nigerian people.

At present, the ADC is focused on building strong ward, local government, and state structures nationwide.

The ADC has consistently affirmed its commitment to an open, transparent, and competitive process for selecting its flag bearer.

APC proxies and external meddlers have no standing to intimidate, blackmail, or sabotage this democratic resolve.

At present, the ADC is focused on building strong ward, local government, and state structures nationwide.

Disruptors and infiltrators must allow the party to do this essential work without interference.The party remains open and welcoming to all genuine opposition figures.

This inclusiveness—not coercion—is the soul of democracy.When the time comes, all qualified aspirants will present themselves freely. No one is stepping down.

If anyone should step aside, it is President Tinubu—whose leadership has become a national liability.

The recent public declaration of ADC membership by former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi in Enugu, the political heartbeat of the Southeast, triggered open boasts by a serving minister and presidential aides about plans to undermine the party.

Their fear is evident. Let there be no ambiguity: the ADC is determined to end the misfortune imposed by the Tinubu-led APC.

No amount of intimidation, intrigue, or sabotage will derail this rescue mission. Nigeria will not surrender its democracy without a fight.

  • * Paul Ibe, Atiku Media Office Abuja , write this piece
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Edo Broadcasting Service in the Dock By Michael Odigbe

Today, you hardly know that EBS is owned by the government because the broadcast station criticises it whenever it errs.

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Cover image: Michael Odigbe

With the support of Governor Monday Okpebholo, including funds, moral stimulus, and freedom to operate, Aledeh has been able to transform EBS into a desired, competitive global brand.

It has been over a year since Mr Sulaiman Aledeh became the managing director of the state-owned Edo Broadcasting Service (EBS), Benin.

He met the outfit in moribund mode.

However, with the support of Governor Monday Okpebholo, including funds, moral stimulus, and freedom to operate, Aledeh has been able to transform EBS into a desired, competitive global brand.

Before the coming of Aledeh, the EBS of the Obaseki era was a mere government propaganda machine and a vicious Alsatian attack dog of opponents.

Now, a new sheriff, Aledeh, is at the helm of EBS.The old unprofessionalism of staff is gone for good.

Therefore, today, you hardly know that EBS is owned by the government because the broadcast station criticises it whenever it errs.

No more hiding place for the government’s inanities. EBS is not yet on par with the BBCs of the world, but it is steadily working hard to catch up with them.

However, the station requires a transmitter each for its Ihevbe and Ivue substations for enhanced coverage.

One of these transmitters arrived from China recently and is being installed without delay.

This suggests that a visible effort is being made to establish the necessary broadcast infrastructure for improved performance.

In addition, EBS has repackaged its programmes, providing people-friendly content with deep insights, enhanced analytical conversations, quality delivery, and an expanded time scope, thanks to the efforts of Aledeh, who has a proven record of being well-versed in a wide range of topics.

This aligns with the principles of mass communication practice worldwide.

One of the new iconic programmes of EBS is the Morning Drive, powered by a crack team of Aledeh himself, St. Patrick, Chris Enabulele, Desmond, AJ, Belema, Uju, Ofure and Mathew Ajakaiye.

Unknown to critics, the team is not a crowd but a whole house of intelligent men and women intentionally assembled for quality conversations that incorporate different perspectives.

Another key point in constituting the team is to promote the Governor Monday Okpebholo’s policy of inclusivity in governance at the micro EBS level.

For instance, with Belema, Ofure, and Uju in Morning Drive, there is female gender representation.

And by having Desmond on the programme, a person with a visible physical challenge is brought on board in Morning Drive.

So, let us stop focusing on the programme’s population and instead concentrate on the cumulative conversational value of each team member, which has been top-notch so far.Indeed, what we have in Morning Drive is not a case of ‘too many cooks spoil the broth ‘.

Instead, it is a case of a plurality of good heads being better than two or three equally good ones.

At this juncture, I must not fail to say that the deliberate inclusion of Desmond, Chris Enabulele and Mathew Ajakaiye in Morning Drive is very revealing. See, although physically challenged, Desmond is never found wanting in the knowledge content of the ideas he speaks on self-assuredly and fearlessly. Chris Enabulele!! Spinning good music is his ‘bad’ habit. But hold it. Just listen to his contributions in Morning, Drive, and you will marvel at his expansive grasp of past and current world events. Never think he is just a music machine.

Additionally, it was exciting to meet Mathew Ajakaiye on Morning Drive. He not only anchors the sports segment of the programme with an array of scintillating information and analysis, but he also stays on to provide valuable insights into any discussion on the table. He is a genuinely global person. All this narrative about Desmond, Chris Enabulele and Mathew Ajakaiye is proof positive that it is a logical fallacy to judge a book by its cover without reading it.However, I need to point out here that the programme should avoid teasing personal jokes targeted at members, as they often end up exposing confidential biographies to the public

in these days of a digital lifestyle. No one has the statutory right to openly discuss false or accurate information about a person with a veneer of a sarcastic joke.There is a plethora of jokes out there in the limitless universe that can add comfort, richness, and organic entertainment value to Morning Drive, currently the leading programme in the South-South of Nigeria, alongside Drive O’Clock, another superlative baby of EBS.Drive O’Clock, conceptualised by innovative Aledeh and operationalised by a triangular intelligent crew of Seriki, Englishman, as well as Soji Abok, is today a pioneer in Africa in impact journalism, delivered wi

h a local Nigerian energetic flavour.It is achieving its mandate of liberating the populace from the capitalist cruelty of human rights abusers.All said, my counsel is that the crew should realise that listeners and viewers of the programme have the right to criticise the presenters, even with malice.Therefore, they should not return the abuse in kind, but instead deploy hard facts, information, and education to counter the mischief of wicked critics.With Aledeh in charge at EBS, the Tuesday night reggae programme of Kingsley Ogbebor, as well as the Sunday afternoon programme of Agbakpan, and the late Sunday evening highlife programme of

Omoaka, have become more robust in terms of content, texture, and presentation style.As of now, I consider the Saturday programme, Una Good Morning Show, as a weak link in the success story of EBS. The programme is not well presented by Rev Orukpe Otubor. It is unacceptable for him to rely on Idele’s deficiencies in conversations about the programme when it is clear that Idele habitually injects personal trivialities into serious discussions on which he lacks relevant information and analytical prowess.More disappointing is that Idele often loses his attention span and struggles to stick to discussion topics, a characteristic trait that

eads him to speak out of turn. He is incorrigible, never submitting to cognitive reconditioning by Otubor, the presenter, to enable him to align with the high standards that Aledeh is setting for the new EBS.So, it is time Idele is weeded out with Aledeh’s winnowing fork so that he doesn’t do more damage to the UNA GOOD MORNING programme started long ago in 1980 by enigmatic Pa Felix Ogie.The producer of the programme needs to ensure that people like Robert Aiyanyi, Gladys Ighalo, Hope Bazuaye, and other talented individuals are recast into the programme after receiving proper education on the editorial policy of the new EBS under Aledeh

an EBS today is on the move. It is not only proper infrastructure that is needed to excel. Additionally, the broadcast station requires high-quality programmes, producers, and presenters to achieve and sustain success.

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Opinions

Christmas Eve Explosion: One Too Many

We commiserate with the families of those who have lost their loved ones in this senseless attack. No one should lose their life while worshipping God.

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By Ini Ememobong
 

The news of an explosion in a mosque in Gamboru Market, Maiduguri is another sad reminder of the rising insecurity that has become the unfortunate contemporary reality that Nigerians face.

This is totally unacceptable; the irreducible minimum the government should offer its people is the protection of lives and property.

This administration has failed woefully in this respect and should rise to the occasion rather than resort to rhetoric and playing politics with security.
 
We commiserate with the families of those who have lost their loved ones in this senseless attack. No one should lose their life while worshipping God.

If these attacks on places of worship continue unchecked, they will not only violate the constitutional right of Nigerians to freely worship but will also create an atmosphere of fear that threatens the very fabric of our religious society.


We call on the Federal and State Governments to take immediate and practical steps to protect our citizens throughout this yuletide season and beyond.

Nigerians deserve more than empty promises and political rhetoric. We need concrete, actionable security strategies deployed on the ground.

This escalating insecurity has become unbearable and must be confronted with the urgency and seriousness it deserves
 
• Comrade Ini Ememobong is the
National Publicity Secretary,
People’s Democratic Party

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