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Economists Predict Positive Impact of Naira Appreciation on Inflation and Import Prices

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Nigerian economists are optimistic that the recent appreciation of the Naira against the U.S. dollar, if sustained, could significantly reduce the cost of imported goods and curb the country’s headline inflation, which stood at 33.88% in October 2024.

Gbolade Idakolo, Chief Executive Officer of SD & D Capital Management, and Prof. Godwin Oyedokun of Lead City University, Ibadan, shared these insights on Monday.

The Naira’s exchange rate improved to N1,538.50 per dollar on December 9, 2024, from N1,740 a month earlier. This represents a gain of N201.50 in the official market, despite slight fluctuations in rates at the start of the week.

This progress follows the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) introduction of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), aimed at fostering transparency and reducing market distortions. The platform has reportedly curbed speculative trading in the parallel market, bolstering confidence in the Naira’s stability.

Key Perspectives on the Naira’s Strengthening

Gbolade Idakolo described EFEMS as a “game changer” for its transparency and effectiveness in unifying forex bidding platforms. He emphasized that the system had diminished speculative activities in the parallel market, leading to a stronger Naira.

He highlighted the positive implications for importers, noting that the reduction in import duty exchange rates would decrease clearing costs, which are a significant factor in determining the prices of imported goods.

“The recent drop in exchange rates for import duties is a step in the right direction. Lower clearing charges will lead to reduced prices for imported goods, benefiting consumers,” Idakolo stated.

However, he urged the CBN to maintain strict regulatory oversight of banks, Bureau De Change operators, and other market players to ensure the sustainability of the gains.

Prof. Godwin Oyedokun attributed the Naira’s appreciation to increased FX inflows, reduced dollar demand, and strategic CBN interventions. He agreed that lower exchange rates for import duties could indirectly lower prices of imported goods, provided importers pass on the savings to consumers.

However, Oyedokun cautioned that several factors could limit the impact of the Naira’s appreciation on imported goods, including:

  • Global supply chain disruptions that may inflate costs.
  • Domestic economic conditions, such as inflation and government policies.
  • Importer behavior, as some importers might prioritize profit margins over price reductions.

To sustain the Naira’s strength, he advised the CBN to continue promoting macroeconomic stability, attracting foreign investment, and addressing structural issues like corruption, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure.

“While the recent Naira appreciation is encouraging, it may be temporary. Strategic and consistent interventions by the CBN will be crucial to sustaining this progress,” Oyedokun concluded.

Outlook

The economists agree that the Naira’s appreciation offers an opportunity to alleviate inflationary pressures, particularly in import-dependent sectors. However, sustained gains will require consistent policy measures and vigilance from the CBN to ensure long-term economic stability.

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Business

PENGASSAN – Dangote Rift: A needless attack on private enterprise

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The Director-General, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Segun Ajayi-Kadir, has described the rift between Dangote Refinery and Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) as unfortunate, and a needless attack on private enterprise.

He noted that the strike had far-reaching implications on residents and businesses, as factories suffered cuts in production schedules, with a hike in transportation fare.

Fielding questions from reporters at MAN House, yesterday, while announcing the association’s coming Annual General Meeting (AGM), he revealed that imported products, which were not suffering disruption, were likely to fill the gap and if the rift rears its head again, it would affect daily workers and people in the logistics value chain that rely on the products made in those factories.

Meanwhile, PENGASSAN has said it decided to suspend its two-day strike to protect the jobs of its members in Dangote Refinery.The President, Festus Osifo, explained that the union was unsatisfied with the posting of about 800 sacked staff to Dangote’s subsidiaries to prevent job loss.

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FG Spends $2.86bn on External Debts Servicing – CBN

By August 2025, debt service climbed to $302.3m, which was $22.35m or 8 per cent higher than the $279.95m of August 2024.

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The Federal Government spent a total of $2.86 billion to service external debt in the first eight months of 2025.

This was disclosed in the international payment data from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The figure shows that external debts accounted for 69.1 percent of the country’s total foreign payments of $4.14 billion in the period.

In the same eight-month stretch of 2024, debt service stood at $3.06 billion, representing 70.7 percent of total foreign payments of $4.33 billion.

The figures show that while the absolute value of debt service fell by $198m between 2024 and 2025.

The share of debt in overall foreign payments has remained persistently high, with about seven out of every ten dollars leaving the country used to meet debt obligations.

The monthly breakdown highlights the volatility of Nigeria’s repayment schedule:

In January 2025, $540.67m was spent compared with $560.52m in January 2024, a fall of $19.85m or 3.5 per cent.

February 2025 recorded $276.73m, slightly below the $283.22m in February 2024, down by $6.49m or 2.3 per cent.March 2025 surged to $632.36m against $276.17m in March 2024, an increase of $356.19m or 129 per cent.

In April 2025, payments reached $557.79m, which was $342.59m or 159 per cent higher than the $215.20m of April 2024.

May 2025 stood at $230.92m, sharply lower than the $854.37m in May 2024, a drop of $623.45m or 73 per cent.

June 2025 rose to $143.39m compared with $50.82m in June 2024, a rise of $92.57m or 182 per cent.

July 2025 fell to $179.95m, down by $362.55m or 66.8 per cent from $542.5m in July 2024.

By August 2025, debt service climbed to $302.3m, which was $22.35m or 8 per cent higher than the $279.95m of August 2024.

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ECOWAS Bank okays $308.63m for Nigeria, Guinea

The bank gave the approval during its 93rd Ordinary Session convened at the it’s headquarters in Lomé, the Togolese capital.

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ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID), has approved $308.631 million for the implementation of various projects in Taraba State, Nigeria, and a $40 million credit line for Vista Bank, Guinea, to bolster trade-related activities, including import-export operations and commercial value chains.

The bank gave the approval during its 93rd Ordinary Session convened at the it’s headquarters in Lomé, the Togolese capital.

President and Chairman of Board of Directors of the bank, Dr. George Agyekum Donkor, said the newly approved financing would advance strategic public and private sector initiatives, aligned with EBID’s mandate to promote sustainable development throughout the Economic Community of West African States by strengthening regional integration and fostering economic diversification.

The approved facilities include the $98.18 for a 50 MW Solar Photovoltaic Power Plant in Taraba State, Nigeria, , which will augment the supply of reliable, clean electricity to spur inclusive economic development, alleviate energy poverty, and improve environmental sustainability.

Anticipated benefits include direct electricity access for roughly 390,000 individuals, enhanced power reliability for at least 200 public institutions, the creation of 400 direct jobs during construction, and approximately 50 permanent operational roles.

The bank noted that an estimated 1,200–1,500 indirect jobs were expected to emerge across supply chains, maintenance services,and small businesses.

Another facility is the $79.219 million modern rice processing complex and 10,000-hectare irrigated rice production unit also in Taraba State.

Also included is the $91.232 million facility for Taraba State Industrial Park, an initiative conceived to accelerate local industrialisation and economic diversification through the establishment of a modern, integrated industrial ecosystem.

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