By Ochefa

•Minister of Power Chief Olasunkanmi Joseph Tegbe

The Federal Government past and present has spent nearly two decades pursuing essentially the same 10,000MW electricity benchmark.

This is understandable given that electricity remains one of the biggest obstacles to industrial development in Nigeria.

That’s why in the ongoing 2027 election campaigns , the top three parties – APC, ADC, and the NDC recognise the importance of electricity to the economy, although their specific commitments differ.

APC: Plans to scale electricity generation towards 10,000MW, strengthen transmission and distribution, and expand clean energy access.

ADC: Emphasises energy-sector reforms and regional connectivity to support production and industrialisation.

NDC: Proposes expanding power generation and distribution. The NDC campaign blueprint specifically identifies an additional 10,000MW of power within four years as a target.

However, checks by Ohibaba.com shows that successive administrations have set the 10,000MW as a goal but achieving the target has remained elusive.

Here are the records:

Nigeria’s 10,000-megawatt (MW) electricity generation target dates back to the electricity expansion programme of the Olusegun Obasanjo administration (1999–2007), although successive governments adopted, modified and repeatedly renewed the target.

1. Obasanjo administration:

The original 10,000MW ambition (2005–2008).The roots of the 10,000MW target can be traced to the Federal Government’s efforts to expand electricity generation through the National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP).

Following the failure of private investment to deliver sufficient electricity, the government began directly funding new power plants from 2002.

In 2005, construction commenced on several NIPP power stations, including:

Alaoji

Geregu

Omotosho

Olorunsogo

Ihovbor

Egbema

Gbarain.

The government’s ambition was to push installed generation capacity beyond 10,000MW by the end of 2008.

An earlier policy document, however, had already established a more specific target of achieving 10,000MW of operable generation capacity by the end of 2011.

2. Yar’Adua administration: 10,000MW by 2011

The Umaru Musa Yar’Adua administration inherited the NIPP projects and retained the 10,000MW ambition.

A 2009 African Development Bank report on Nigeria’s Economic and Power Sector Reform Programme confirmed that the Federal Government expected to achieve 10,000MW of operable generation capacity by the end of 2011.

The strategy involved rehabilitating existing power stations and completing new plants under NIPP.

3. Jonathan administration: Target raised to 16,000MW

President Goodluck Jonathan’s Transformation Agenda (2011–2015) went beyond the 10,000MW benchmark.

The administration set the following targets:5,000MW by 2011.6,000MW by 2012.16,000MW by 2015.

However, by December 2012, actual generation had reached approximately 4,500MW, falling short of the 10,000MW target for that period.

4. Buhari administration: 10,000MW distributable electricityIn March 2016, President Muhammadu Buhari publicly announced a target of delivering 10,000MW of distributable electricity within three years.

He also promised to add 2,000MW to the national grid in 2016.

This was against the backdrop of the APC’s 2015 campaign manifesto, which promised to expand electricity generation and distribution to 40,000MW within four to eight years.

The distinction is important: Buhari’s 10,000MW promise referred to distributable power, not merely installed generation capacity.

5. Subsequent administrations.

The 10,000MW ambition continued under subsequent governments.

In 2021, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo said investments exceeding $3 billion in generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure would put Nigeria on the path to achieving 10GW of electricity.

The National Development Plan 2021–2025 also incorporated a 10,000MW electricity target.

The historical significance: Why has 10,000MW remained elusive?

The recurring 10,000MW target exposes a fundamental problem with Nigeria’s electricity policy: successive administrations have announced ambitious generation targets without resolving the structural constraints affecting the entire electricity value chain.

The bigger question is how did countries like Egypt, South Africa, and Morocco attained energy security? Nigerian leaders can borrow a leaf from their strategy.

These include:

1. 1. Gas supply constraints: Inadequate gas supply to thermal power stations.

2. Transmission limitations: Inability of the national grid to evacuate all available generation.

3.Distribution bottlenecks: Insufficient distribution infrastructure to deliver electricity to consumers.

4. Funding challenges: Persistent liquidity problems across the electricity market.

5 . Infrastructure deficits: Poor maintenance and inadequate investment in power infrastructure.

According to the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), as of October 2026, Nigeria’s installed electricity generation capacity is approximately 13,625 MW, but the amount of electricity actually available for generation is significantly lower.

What does this mean?

Nigeria has a significant gap between installed capacity and actual electricity generation.13,625 MW:

What the installed generating infrastructure can theoretically produce.4,744 MW:

What was available for dispatch in October.4,047 MW: Average electricity actually generated per hour.

This means Nigeria generated only about 30% of its installed generation capacity on average during October 2026.

Major challenge

1.The gap is associated with:Inadequate natural gas supply to thermal power plants.

2. Ageing generation infrastructure.

3.Poor maintenance and equipment failures.

4. Transmission infrastructure limitations.

5. Financial and operational challenges in the electricity market.

The big question is how did African countries like Egypt, South Africa, and Morocco attained energy security? Nigerian leaders can borrow a leaf from their strategy.

Electricity Generation Capacity of Five African Countries – 2026

Source: Afreximbank Power Industry Report 2022.