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APC And Its Presidential Primary Result, By Emeka Monye

Democracy is not just about winning. It is about winning in a way that the country can recognize as its own.

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Fela’s “Government Magic”

Fela Anikulapo-Kuti had a word for it: “Government Magic.”

In the track, the Afrobeat pioneer captured a Nigerian political tradition that predates the Fourth Republic—the sudden transformation of figures, narratives, and outcomes to fit the ambitions of those in power.

He was singing about the 1979 and 1983 elections, but the chorus feels uncomfortably familiar today. The instruments have changed. The stage is bigger.

Yet the choreography of doubt around election results remains.

The political class, as Fela dissected in song after song, has always understood the value of controlling the story before, during, and after the polls.

The Goal

The goal is not just to win, but to win in a way that makes dissent look irrational. When the numbers bend to serve whims and caprices, the public’s faith in the process bends with them.

That is why the credibility of internal party primaries matters. They are rehearsals for the national performance. If the rehearsal collapses into farce, the main show risks losing its audience.

Striking Figure

The recent All Progressives Congress presidential primary result has reignited that old conversation.

According to reports circulating from the party, President Bola Tinubu emerged as the APC candidate for the 2027 presidential election with a tally exceeding 10 million votes.

On its face, the figure is striking. It is also the source of the current controversy. Across social media, videos and screenshots purporting to show the counting process have fueled questions about the arithmetic behind the result.

The clips show delegates and officials tallying votes in what appears to be a linear, one-by-one sequence.

Then, without a visible change in method or volume, the totals jump to figures in the tens of thousands.That kind of progression violates basic expectations of how counting works.

Mechanics of counting

Arithmetic progression moves step by step: one, two, three, four. What people observed looked closer to geometric progression—small, manageable numbers suddenly leaping into magnitudes that do not match the visible process.

To the average voter watching at home, it does not read as a technical anomaly. It reads as a sleight of hand. And in politics, perception is often as consequential as procedure.

The problem is not the ambition of a large turnout. A party primary with millions of participants is plausible if the structure supports it.

The problem is the disconnect between what was seen and what was announced. When the mechanics of counting defy standard arithmetic, the burden falls on the party to explain the method.

Was this an aggregation of state-level results? Were multiple counting centers involved? Was there a digital component that was not visible in the clips? Without that context, the silence becomes an explanation in itself, and not a reassuring one.

Why it matters

This matters because the signal from a party primary extends beyond the party. It sets a tone for the general election that follows.

If internal contests normalize questionable tallies, it becomes harder to draw a line at the national level.

It erodes the cultural expectation that numbers should add up, that observers should be able to follow the process, and that the loser should be able to concede without feeling gaslit.

Once that expectation erodes, every subsequent election starts from a deficit of trust.

Nigeria’s elections history

Nigeria’s history with elections makes this sensitivity unavoidable.

Fela’s “Government Magic” resonated in the 1980s precisely because voters had watched results shift between the polling unit and the collation center.

The trauma of that era did not disappear because new technology arrived. It evolved.

Today, the magic happens in parallel—on the field and on timelines. A video can travel faster than a press statement. A 30-second clip can frame a narrative that a 10-page report cannot undo.

In that environment, transparency is not a luxury. It is risk management.The APC’s position as the ruling party increases the stakes.

When the party in power announces results that strain credibility, the opposition, civil society, and international observers all take note. It feeds into a broader narrative about democratic backsliding that Nigeria has been working to resist.

It also gives ammunition to those who argue that elections are theater and that the outcome is decided long before voters mark a ballot. That is a dangerous argument to validate, even unintentionally.

Generational dimension

There is also a generational dimension. The younger voters who make up a growing share of the electorate are digital natives.

They expect processes to be visible, verifiable, and timestamped.

They are not satisfied with appeals to tradition or authority when the data does not align.

For them, a counting process that leaps from single digits to five figures without an explanation looks less like “strategy” and more like contempt for their intelligence.

That is not a base you want to alienate before a general election. None of this is to say that the APC intended to undermine its own credibility.

Party primaries are complex, high-pressure events.

Aggregating results from 36 states and the FCT, coordinating delegates, managing security, and communicating in real time is not simple.

Mistakes happen. Miscommunications happen. But the response to those mistakes determines whether they become scandals.

A prompt, detailed breakdown of how the 10 million figure was reached—with state-by-state tallies, observer sign-off, and a clear explanation of the counting method—would close the loop. Silence and defensiveness keep it open.

When the party in power announces results that strain credibility, the opposition, civil society, and international observers all take note. It feeds into a broader narrative about democratic backsliding that Nigeria has been working to resist.

The political class would do well to remember that legitimacy is a renewable resource, but only if you invest in it. Every election cycle offers a chance to rebuild trust or deplete it further.

The current moment is a test. If the APC can demonstrate that its primary was both massive and methodical, it strengthens the case for its own mandate.

If it cannot, it hands its opponents a narrative that will outlast the 2027 campaign.Beyond the APC, the broader lesson is for all parties.

The era where results could be announced and accepted without explanation is over.

The public has access to more information, more cameras, and more ways to compare what was said with what was seen. That is not a problem to be managed through messaging. It is a reality to be designed for.

That means building primaries and elections around verifiable processes: clear protocols, independent observation, real-time data release, and audit trails that can withstand public scrutiny.

Leadership also requires admitting when the process has gaps.

A leader cannot succeed without a good support team, but that team must include people willing to say, “This does not look right, and we need to fix it.”

The younger generation watching these events is not asking for perfection.They are asking for honesty. They are asking for a system that respects arithmetic and respects them.

Giving them space in leadership means giving them a process they can believe in, even when they lose.

The danger of ignoring this is not abstract. When vote counting looks arbitrary, voter turnout suffers.

When turnout suffers, governance suffers. When governance suffers, the cycle of disillusionment deepens.

Nigeria cannot afford another decade where elections are seen as rituals rather than decisions.

The country’s challenges—security, economy, education, healthcare—require a public that believes its vote can influence who makes those decisions.

Fela’s critique was not about cynicism. It was about accountability. He held up a mirror to power and asked it to recognize itself. That is still the task.

If the APC’s primary result was legitimate, prove it with the kind of transparency that makes “Government Magic” impossible. If there were errors, correct them publicly and show how the process will change. That is how you turn a moment of doubt into a foundation for trust.

2027 election

The 2027 election will not be decided on social media. But the climate in which it is contested is being shaped there now.

Every unexplained anomaly, every dismissive response, every jump from one to ten thousand without a visible step in between, adds weight to the narrative that the game is rigged.

And once that narrative takes hold, even a perfectly conducted election struggles to overcome it.

The political class has been called upon to ensure that their supporters do not cause mayhem as the country heads for the polls.

That responsibility starts long before Election Day. It starts with how parties conduct their own affairs, how they count their own votes, and how they explain their own results.

Democracy is not just about winning. It is about winning in a way that the country can recognize as its own.

Nigeria needs more people of conscience in positions where they can influence process, not just outcomes. People who understand that a clean process is the best defense against a dirty result.

People who are willing to give the younger generation not just a seat at the table, but a table that is built on rules everyone can see and follow.

If the APC wants its 2027 candidacy to be judged on policy, record, and vision, it must first secure the legitimacy of the path that produced it.

That is not a favor to the opposition. It is a service to the country. Because in the end, the only magic that sustains democracy is the ordinary, unglamorous work of making the numbers add up—and showing your work while you do it.

• Emeka Monye Is A Journalist

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The Girl Who Was Almost Married at 10 Is Taking Her Story to the United Nations

On September 4 this week…Sierra Leone’s First Lady is expected to stand before the United Nations General Assembly with a proposal aimed at protecting millions of girls from the same fate.

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Sierra Leone’s First Lady, Fatima Maada Bio

By Ahmed Sahid Nasralla (De Monk)

AT about 10 years old, Fatima Maada Bio already knew who she was expected to marry.

She was a child, but an adult decision had been made about the direction her life should take. Somehow, she escaped that future.

On September 4 this week, many, many years after that little girl could have been sent into a marriage she did not choose, Sierra Leone’s First Lady is expected to stand before the United Nations General Assembly with a proposal aimed at protecting millions of girls from the same fate.

She is expected to present a draft resolution seeking the proclamation of November 27 as an ‘International Day for the Elimination of Child, Early and Forced Marriage’. The proposal is new.

The date is not yet an official UN observance. It is a call for the international community to give the issue a permanent place on its calendar and, with it, sustained attention and action.

There is something deeply personal about that journey.

According to briefing material from the Office of the First Lady of Sierra Leone, she knew at around the age of 10 who she was expected to marry and narrowly escaped child marriage.

That experience did not become a footnote in her life. It became part of the reason she has spent years speaking about the rights and protection of women and girls.

The First Lady’s public advocacy has taken her from communities in Sierra Leone to some of the world’s most important international forums.

Her flagship ‘Hands Off Our Girls’ campaign has focused on ending rape, early marriage and violence against women and girls, while her work has also extended into girls’ education, women’s health and other issues affecting vulnerable communities.

However, her return to the United Nations this time carries a particularly personal weight.

She is taking a subject that could have defined her own childhood and asking the international community to give it greater and lasting attention.

It is not her first attempt to put child protection on the UN agenda.

In 2022, she spearheaded the effort that led the General Assembly to proclaim November 18 as the ‘World Day for the Prevention of and Healing from Child Sexual Exploitation, Abuse and Violence’.

“She is expected to present a draft resolution seeking the proclamation of November 27 as an ‘International Day for the Elimination of Child, Early and Forced Marriage’. The proposal is new.”

UNAIDS describes her as having championed the adoption of that first-ever World Day.

The United Nations has also continued to strengthen its attention to child, early and forced marriage.

In December 2024, the General Assembly adopted a resolution addressing the issue.

Sierra Leone has been moving on the national front too. The country enacted legislation in 2024 prohibiting marriage involving anyone under 18.

So when Fatima Maada Bio walks into the General Assembly this week, she will be carrying a story that has travelled through several stages: from the experience of a young girl, to a national campaign, to legislation, and now to another attempt to secure a place for the issue on the global calendar.

The numbers behind the issue are sobering.

The United Nations and other international organisations have consistently described child marriage as a major barrier to girls’ education, health, economic opportunity and personal autonomy.

Behind every statistic, though, there is a girl whose childhood is being shortened.

There is a school she may leave, friends she may lose, choices she may never get to make, and a future that may be decided for her before she is old enough to understand what that future means. That is why the personal history of the woman making this proposal is important.

Fatima Maada Bio knows what it means for adults to imagine a future for a girl before she has had the opportunity to imagine one for herself. She also knows what it means to get away.

That gives her advocacy a particular human quality. The issue is something she encountered as a child and has carried into her public life as an adult.

The fight has also taken her beyond child marriage. Last week, OncoDaily named her among its 100 Influential Women in Oncology for 2026, recognising her work in women’s health and cancer prevention.

The publication highlighted her partnership with the Merck Foundation, which has supported specialist medical training in Sierra Leone, including scholarships that contributed to the development of the country’s cancer-care workforce.

It also noted her advocacy for breast cancer awareness and early detection and her participation in discussions around the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative.

It is another part of a public role that has increasingly stretched beyond the traditional image of a First Lady.

Then there is child protection, and women’s health.

There is girls’ education, and the wider question of how countries protect women and children who often have the least power over decisions affecting their lives.

The international recognition in oncology is significant for another reason.

It shows that her advocacy is being noticed in fields far removed from the political spotlight in which First Ladies are usually seen.

Nonetheless, the child-marriage campaign remains different. It brings her public work unusually close to her own childhood.

Sierra Leone, as a country, has its own reason to pay attention to what happens in New York this week.

The country has already taken the important step of outlawing marriage involving children under 18.

The First Lady has been one of the most visible voices pushing the protection of girls into the national conversation.

Her campaign has also received international recognition, including her appointment by UNAIDS as a champion for the empowerment and engagement of adolescent girls and young women.

Now she is taking the conversation back to the United Nations. The proposed international day would not, by itself, end child marriage.

A date on the UN calendar cannot keep a girl in school, or protect her from an abusive household or change the circumstances that make families vulnerable to marrying off their daughters.

Those things require laws, enforcement, education, economic opportunity, social protection and changes in attitudes that can take generations.But international days can keep issues alive.

They create opportunities for governments, schools, civil society organisations, communities and international agencies to return to a problem every year, measure progress and remind themselves of what remains unfinished. That is the opportunity behind November 27.

This may also be the reason why the story of the little girl who nearly became a child bride is worth remembering when Fatima Maada Bio enters the General Assembly. She is no longer that girl.

She got education and became a journalist, an actress, an advocate, a mother, and Sierra Leone’s First Lady. She also became the President of the Organisation of African First Ladies for Development.

She is now asking the world to give millions of girls something she was fortunate enough to have: the chance to grow up and become all of that and even more before someone else decides what their lives should become.

That is what, on behalf of Sierra Leone and the world, she is carrying into the United Nations on September 4.

Not a speech or a title. She is carrying a powerful story the General Assembly should listen and act on.

Ahmed Sahid Nasralla is the Ex-Officio and Immediate Past President of the Sierra Leone Association of Journalists (SLAJ), and the Chairman of the Federation of African Journalists (FAJ) Working Group on Climate Change.

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Is Dangote Refinery Playing the Giraffe by Leaving Domestic Oil Supply to Marketers?

Is Nigeria gradually returning to a situation where imported petrol is competing with locally refined PMS, even as Dangote Refinery has the capacity to supply a substantial portion of domestic demand?

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[File Photo] Aliko Dangote

By Ochefa


WHEN I was younger, bedtime storytelling was one of my favourite pastimes in my family. After the evening meal, my mother would usually gather us together for this special treat.
Of all the fables she told us, one that has remained indelibly etched in my memory to this day was Why the Giraffe Eats from Tall Trees.
The story portrayed the giraffe as a humble and considerate animal. Because of its long neck, it could reach the leaves and branches of tall trees, leaving the grasses and shorter vegetation for sheep and goats whose shorter necks could not reach the higher branches.


So, what is the point?

Could the Dangote Petroleum Refinery be playing the giraffe in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market—leaving marketers to supply the domestic market with imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), while it increasingly exports its refined products to other countries?
Recent developments in the petroleum industry appear to lend some credence to this question.
The management of Dangote Petroleum Refinery recently attributed its increased export volumes to rising imports of petrol into Nigeria.

The refinery said the decision to focus more on exports should not be interpreted as a lack of commitment to the Nigerian market.
“Rather, exports are a prudent operational response to the realities of a market where imported products continue to compete with locally refined fuel despite the availability of sufficient domestic refining capacity,” the refinery said.


Figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) appear to support the changing supply pattern.
According to the regulator’s recent report, Dangote Refinery’s supply of PMS to the domestic market fell by 21 per cent to 25.8 million litres per day in July, from 32.5 million litres per day in June.


The monthly factsheet showed that the refinery produced about 25.9 million litres of PMS per day in July and exported 3.4 million litres per day.

The July domestic supply figure was reportedly the lowest recorded by the refinery in 2026.
At the same time, petrol imports rose by nine per cent to 19.7 million litres per day, from 18.1 million litres per day in June.
These figures raise an important question: Is Nigeria gradually returning to a situation where imported petrol is competing with locally refined PMS, even as Dangote Refinery has the capacity to supply a substantial portion of domestic demand?
Dangote Refinery has expressed concern about the continued issuance of import licences for petroleum products. It maintains that it has demonstrated sufficient capacity to meet, and even exceed, Nigeria’s domestic PMS requirements.


The refinery said that although it remains committed to Nigeria’s energy security and uninterrupted fuel availability, the continued inflow of imported PMS has created uncertainty around domestic demand forecasting and inventory management.


According to the refinery, it has consistently maintained sufficient inventories and reserved product volumes to guarantee steady supplies to the Nigerian market since commencing operations.


That commitment, it said, has involved substantial investment in storage facilities, logistics and working capital to protect consumers from supply disruptions and market volatility.


Why Dangote Says It Is Exporting More


The refinery’s major concern appears to be the lack of transparency over the volume of imported petrol expected to enter the country.
Without reliable information on future import volumes, it argues, it becomes increasingly difficult to plan production and manage inventories efficiently.


Maintaining large stocks of petrol that may not be absorbed by the domestic market also comes with significant storage and financing costs.


“As a responsible energy provider, we have always endeavoured to keep adequate reserves to satisfy local demand at all times,” the refinery said.
However, where significant quantities of imported PMS continue to enter the market through licences issued by the regulator, and there is limited visibility on future import volumes, the refinery says it becomes commercially unsustainable to hold excess inventory indefinitely.


Its argument is straightforward: when locally refined products cannot be absorbed by the domestic market because of competing imports, the surplus must be moved elsewhere.
Hence, the increased exports.


The refinery insists that this does not mean Nigeria’s domestic market cannot be supplied. Rather, it says the exports are a response to market uncertainty created by competing imports.


It also warned that if supply shortages eventually occur because of market distortions caused by excessive importation and the resulting difficulty in forecasting domestic demand, such shortages should not automatically be blamed on Dangote Refinery.


The company maintains that it remains ready and capable of meeting and exceeding Nigeria’s petroleum product requirements.


Dangote’s Transparency Concern Is Genuine—Expert


Oil and gas expert Dr Ayodele Oni believes Dangote Refinery’s concern over transparency is legitimate.
According to him, Section 317 of the Petroleum Industry Act contemplates the issuance of import licences where there is a demonstrable shortfall.
But, he argued, a shortfall determination that is not published cannot easily be scrutinised.
“NMDPRA should publish, ex ante, the aggregate volume of import authorisations it has approved for each quarter and the shortfall assessment behind them. That is a modest reform and it costs the regulator nothing,” he said.
However, Oni cautioned against simply shutting out imports.
He pointed to the performance of the country’s government-owned refineries, noting that NNPC’s three refineries produced nothing in July.


“A single plant supplying nearly the entire national market, with imports switched off, is a structural risk, not an achievement,” he argued.


He added that the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act exists to address such situations, stressing that regulatory policy should not be based on the assumption that a single refinery will never experience an unplanned outage.

According to him, the solution is structural: a transparent shortfall methodology, published quarterly import quotas, and the development of genuine second and third domestic refineries.
“Everything else is noise,” he said.

” The government cannot simultaneously encourage domestic refining, allow substantial imports without clearly communicating the basis for them, and expect refiners to maintain costly inventories indefinitely.”


Imports or Domestic Refining?


Another industry analyst and former Managing Director of 11PLC, formerly Mobil, Otunba Adetunji Oyebanji, believes Dangote Refinery is within its rights to export.
He argued that the government must retain the flexibility to import petroleum products whenever there is a potential shortfall.
“This is an internationally traded product,” he said, pointing out that even countries with substantial refining capacity, including the United States, continue to import petroleum products.
His argument is that economics, rather than sentiment, ultimately determines where petroleum products are bought and sold.
“We heard that Dangote exported to America. Don’t they have refineries?” he asked rhetorically.
For him, pricing remains a major determinant.
And therein lies the real issue.
The giraffe in my mother’s story was not merely tall; it was considerate. It reached the leaves that other animals could not reach and left the lower vegetation for them.
But Nigeria’s petroleum market is not a fable. Dangote Refinery is a commercial enterprise, not a charitable institution. It must make economically rational decisions, just as marketers and importers do.


The bigger question, therefore, is not whether Dangote Refinery should export.
It is whether Nigeria’s petroleum regulatory framework is creating the right conditions for locally refined products to compete fairly, while ensuring that consumers are protected and the country is not exposed to the risks of relying too heavily on a single refinery.


If Dangote has the capacity to meet domestic demand but finds it more commercially sensible to export because imported PMS is competing with its products at home, then the problem may be bigger than Dangote.
It may point to a regulatory and market-structure problem that requires urgent attention.
The government cannot simultaneously encourage domestic refining, allow substantial imports without clearly communicating the basis for them, and expect refiners to maintain costly inventories indefinitely.


There must be transparency.
There must also be competition.
And, most importantly, Nigeria needs more functioning refineries capable of supplying the domestic market.


Perhaps, then, the lesson from the giraffe is not that Dangote should leave the “grass” to the marketers.
It is that the rules of the forest must be clear enough for every animal to know where it stands.

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BREAKING: Lagos Govt Declares Today, Thursday Work-Free to Mark 2026 Ìṣẹ̀ṣe Day

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The Lagos State Government has declared Thursday, August 20, 2026, a work-free day for public servants, political appointees and others to mark this year’s Ìṣẹ̀ṣe Day celebration.

The announcement was made by the Special Adviser to the Governor on Tourism, Arts and Culture, Idris Aregbe, in a statement on Wednesday. He described Ìṣẹ̀ṣe as “not a relic” but “a living expression of our traditions and a celebration of Yoruba spirituality as an important part of Nigeria’s cultural and religious landscape.”

Authorities expect the event to draw more than three million residents and traditional worshippers in what is billed as one of the largest gatherings of its kind. Celebrations will feature prayers, rituals, processions, drumming and cultural displays dedicated to the Òrìṣà, coordinated by the Association of African Traditional Religion Nigeria and Overseas.

Ìṣẹ̀ṣe Day has been observed as a work-free day in Lagos since 2023, following a request by the Lagos State Council of Obas and Chiefs. Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has maintained the practice annually as part of the administration’s commitment to indigenous values and religious inclusiveness under the THEMES+ Agenda.

Normal government activities are expected to resume on Friday, August 21. Residents have been urged to celebrate peacefully and respectfully.

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